Waiting For The Black Swan
Thursday, April 4, 2013 2:10
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It is a stormy night sometime in the winter of 1694 off the poorly charted western shore of Australia. The Dutch trading vessel Ridderschap Van Holland is foundering in the heavy swells. She is the flagship of the Dutch trading fleet and had sailed from Cape of Good Hope on February 5th with 300 crew and two passengers; they never arrived and were presumed lost at sea. Two years later the Dutch sailing Captain Willem de Vlamingh went searching for survivors with an expedition of three ships. The mission was a failure as no survivors or clues were ever discovered. On the return trip the expedition charted the western shores of Australiathereby improving navigation on the Indian ocean route to the Dutch east Indies. On January 10th of 1697 de Vlamingh ventured up the swan river; they were the first Europeans to ever do so. He named it Zwaanernenriver, which is Dutch for Swan River….after seeing huge numbers of Black Swans, which until that day were considered an impossibility since all swans are white.
Following this discovery the English coined the term “black swan” as a statement of impossibility flowing from the assumption that all swans are white. The importance of the simile is it’s analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. Any set of conclusions are potentially undone once any fundamental postulates are disproved. The Black Swan Theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2004 book, Fooled by Randomness which was primarily concerned with the world of finance. His next book in 2007 expanded the Black Swan Theory to encompass societal & political realities on Earth as well as the financial angle.
Identifying a Black Swan Event
Taleb’s general advice is to not so much try to predict black swan events as it is to prepare and brace yourself against negative outcome events. Taleb saw the black swan as something different, and set aside form the ordinary unexpected events which occur across our world with ever increasing frequency. The black swan is in fact; a set of circumstances which must all be present for it to be considered a true black swan event. Taleb lists three conditions that identify a true black swan event. [BSE]
1. The event is a complete surprise, taking everyone off guard,
such as the sudden failure of Lehman Brothers, or the disaster at Fukushima.
2. The event has a major impact on the world.
3. After the event, it is rationalized by hindsight as if it could have been expected.
Taleb says that all banks and trading firms are extremely vulnerable to black swan events and are exposed to losses far beyond the normal, expected range. When dealing with this subject we must also take into consideration Counterfactual Thinking which is the tendency people have to imagine alternatives to reality. Humans are predisposed to think about what might have been. This is why, as a counselor, I would always tell my clients to never finish a thought beginning with the words “what if” or “if only“- because those thoughts seldom produce a positive constructive resonance, and tend to be a waste of your time. It is an altogether different thing to do such musing before, rather than after some important event in your life.
The Usual Suspects
Once we know what to look for we can easily identify some of the major black swan events of the past as noted above. With that perspective we can also take stock of the current state of the human condition, and make some educated guesses as to the identity of possible future BSE’s. Listed here are the eight leading contenders for a world changing black swan event:
1. Severe Pandemic
2. Accelerated climate change
3. Collapse of the Euro zone economy
4. A Democratic, or collapsed China
5. A reformed Iran
6. Nuclear war – WMDor Cyber attack
7. Coronal Mass Ejection from our Sun
8. Americafalls.
Although some of these scenarios are being currently discussed these days; which is what makes them the usual suspects, we must remember that by their very nature BSE’s possess a magnitude which surprises even those who were clued in. In other words, it’s only a black swan event for the turkey, not the butcher, the trick is, don’t be the turkey!
To give you some perspective on just how strange things have become. When I moved to Alaskato live in the remote wilderness it was because I sought to isolate myself from the madness of modern life, and prepare for some very uncertain times ahead. My family and friends called me a survivalist and thought I was nuts for doing it. Today we see so many people doing exactly what I did in 1979 they even have their own TV reality show. They call them preppers and these days my family and friends think I’m nuts for not doing it! Been there, done that! The idea is to make sensible preparations and contingency plans for yourself that work for your situation. What works for one may be unfeasible to another. Furthermore, since those days so long ago I have come to see and know so much more than I did then. I still see Earth as a very dangerous place to get along on but you cannot focus on the negative so much you become obsessive. It blinds you to other, more spiritual awareness’s which I believe are as fundamental to survival as food and water, perhaps even more so. Never get locked into a single world view.
In the case of widespread severe pandemic there is little one can do beyond some rudimentary precautions and living a healthy life style. This potential BSE has the ability to wipe mankind from the face of the Earth in a worst case scenario. Once released it could race across the globe with every transcontinental airline flight and be well established by many days or even weeks before we even knew it was there, depending on whether it is Ebola, Sars, Hanta virus, Avian Flu, or any one of a hundred genetically created “viral agents” that Darpahas secretly cooked up.
Accelerated climate change is already well upon us now and from what I’ve been seeing and reading, there is little confidence that the current cycle won’t somehow hit a critical mass sufficient to snowball out of control, (pardon the pun.) Of course our dutiful masters want us in a constant state of fearful apprehension which is why they pre-condition us with a plethora of climate themed disaster films such as “The day after tomorrow” and of course the blockbuster “2012.” We are just so much easier to manipulate when we’re always afraid of what might be just around the corner. Just last week I watched an incredulous TV weatherman doing a remote broadcast covering the highly unseasonable snowstorm in New York. The signs of climate change are all around us, all we have to do is look and be willing to see. Of course, as with everything else, the powers that be seek to hide the truth within an artificially constructed bubble of controversy over climate change, trying to get us to believe it’s all an internet hoax.
As for usual suspect number three all I can say once again, is look around at what has been happening in recent weeks; in Greece, and of course in Cyprus. It’s the bailout boogaloo song & dance, just another scheme to grab simply everything before the bell rings and the balloon goes up. It’s all a contrived carefully orchestrated scheme to not just steal all the money, but to leave millions of people broke and powerless in a most dangerous point in our history. You may have noticed how “they” are also suddenly obsessed with confiscation all our weapons too. Hmmm People who are broke, starved & unarmed might just hop on those FEMAbusses a lot more quietly and passively, especially if promised food. History shows us many examples where those in power use food as a weapon of mass compliance. It works! So, if the EU collapses, as it certainly appears it might, don’t you believe for a moment it won’t impact the entire world, as the dominoes continue to fall.
Black swan suspect number four, the Chinacard. Over the last several decades they have been spending themselves into contention as a world power first, then an economic power. Clearly they have their eye on the long game, inscrutable as ever including a desire to assimilate the west, and especially us here in America. The people of China, weary after generations of austere totalitarian rule, are slowly starting to gain influence as the communist party continues to erode, it’s days clearly being numbered. some experts predict Chinacould go democratic within ten to fifteen years. It’s hard to say what would have the biggest global impact, Chinagoing democratic, or going under. Each would present it’s own unique results, and I believe could be equally devastating. The Chinese hold no desire to be one among equals, the seek to dominate. Period.
A reformed Iran could stabilize the middle east, possibly even uniting them under a common goal, pushing the United States completely out of the region altogether. If this were to happen it would not only impact global economy, but could lead to a conflagration we humans have never witnessed before. There is a reason why the USseems so hell bent on painting Iranas the evil empire and it has nothing to do with Iran’s ability for self defense and everything to do with them being one of the few countries left who refuse to be controlled by the Rothschild’s monetary system. Wars have been started over much less, which this makes number five on the list of usual suspects.
For number six we have to look no further than what is currently unfolding on the Korean peninsula with that demented tiny tike threatening nuclear war three times a day for a couple weeks now; and the USadministration egging him on, almost daring him to push the button. As we all know by now wars do not just happen spontaneously out of thin air. They are designed, crafted and choreographed like Swan Lake to achieve specific political goals of conquest and resource control, and this most recent Koreadebacle is no different. The whole reason I’ve been writing these last several posts, with scant time between them is because I can sense the elite’s endgame ramping up, the signs are simply everywhere, and cleverly dressed up to not seem any more dangerous than on any other day living under the shadow of nuclear conflagration. More on this Koreathing in a minute but right now I want to move on to suspect number seven.
As we know the sun goes through cycles of roughly eleven years, culminating in a time of peak activity called the solar maximum. Science is discovering that the sun also has other cycles, as all stars do, which are on an entirely different timetable. Like living organisms, stars also have a life cycle, and while ours is relatively young and robust as stars go, it is this very robustness that has it in seventh place as a suspect BSE. For many decades now we have witnessed and recorded things like dark spots, and solar flares across the face of the sun. These solar flares sometimes cause interference with our satellites, and we must plan human excursions into near space to avoid them as they can be dangerous. In another category of magnitude all together is something known as a coronal mass ejection, or CME for short…which is where massive globs of the suns surface are exploded violently out into space. The reason Earth has seen some of the most amazing aurora borealis ever this year is due to increased solar activity and electromagnetic storms, only partly due to the eleven year solar max cycle. A while back there was one of these CME events on the sun; it spat a fiery glob of plasma and star stuff way out into space. About that last event there is both good & bad news. The bad news is the mass ejected from the sun traveled nearly the entire distance to Earth. The good news is it wasn’t pointed our way…that time. A CME is what they call an ELE, or Extinction Level Event, a kill shotwhich destroys all life on this world.
Our final BSEcandidate is the one closest to our hearts, the fall of America. We see her already dying the death of a thousand cuts, and we wonder in the dark part of our minds how much more can she take before falling to her knees to await the inevitable stroke of the sword. We try to not think of it, to not dwell on it but that becomes harder every day as new affronts to our sanity and spirit march in with blood covered boots, waving their deeds in our faces as we loose money faster than the BP oil spill. Americais hobbling along on broken crutches &broken promises as the banksters &butchers prepare to serve up whatever is left to the highest bidder. We don’t see this here in Americabecause we choose not to see it: the rest of the world can see these facts, and in many cases are in line to feed off our proverbial carcass with the other vultures. Remember, it’s not a black swan event for the Butcher!
Not to put too fine a point on it; but just this week in Arkansas, on the same day, 40 miles apart they had a nuclear accident and an oil spill. They used to say “You just can’t make this stuff up” but any more; that certainly isn’t the case what with the track record humanity has for false flag events. Speaking of which, I said more on Koreaso here we go. Just like we are supposed to, I pretty much ignored the ravings of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un for the first few days, considering that I wouldn’t even know they existed were it not for the broadcast media…which kinda begs yet another question regarding whether what our controlled press is being truthful as they so often aren’t. But anyway, today I hear two things on the same newscast that jabbed my psyche like an olympic javelin. The first was the new, latest wargasmteaser from the young ‘un – saying he has given his “final approval” for a nuclear attack on America’s west coast: (where I reside) and going on to mention his array of suitcase nukes. Minutes later I hear that San Francisco international airport (50 miles from me) is shut down pending the arrival of air force one with Obama aboard who is in town for a $34,000 dollar a plate fund raising dinner! I don’t know about fundraising but that news sure raised the hairs up on the nape of my neck as an arctic chill raced down my spine, and I overheard my subconscious screaming; “This is it, Dealey Plaza all over again and this time my ass is on the X.” I was a bit more relaxed about this before the game was moved into my back yard!
After what we have seen our government capable of; and by this I of course refer to the entire 911 false flag attack, nothing they do now that they are desperate would much surprise me at all…sad to say. In my minds eye I can easily see the whole thing at work; a masterpiece of simplicity. Kim Un plays his role by behaving badly on the world stage because they told him doing so would help bolster his power. Then they send Obama to raise funds in San Francisco,(a city ’they‘ loathe) as if to wiggle the fresh meat under Un’s nose, adding more drama to the street theater of the absurd. My minds eye can also easily see the possibility that Kim Un might never have said a single word they say he did, and that the same entities who killed JFK are about to sacrifice another presidential martyr to their cause.
What they didn’t want you to discover
Now this next doesn’t have to do so much with a BSE as it does the cowardly, craven politicians who stole something more valuable than money from the young people of America. Specifically the generation born between 1980 and 1995. The great shining lie discovered that this group actually outnumbered us baby boomers, and as such would make an unstoppable block of voters were they to ever become politically active, and see things for what they really are. If this group ever organized and pushed for social reform like the youth in China do, they could change the world, for the better. So they got you addicted to banal TV shows full of glib & glitter but not much substance. They distracted you with your own music and artificial culture. They crippled the education system, and replaced it with brain candy & crap. Next they jacked your music and gave you back top10 pop stations, and clear channel. They destroyed your art replacing it with the most brainless reality programming possible, and now you know why it’s called programming. They did all this hoping you kids would just keep hitting that bong & doing those drugs and staying loose so they could control everything without interference from your peeps. They punked a generation and got away with stealing their futures as they took them right out of the equation. Marginalized. I’d be really pissed, actually.
That Whole April 19th Thing
Over the last couple of decades there are certain things I’ve learned to pay close attention to; and one of them is that whole April the 19th thing. The elites, powers that be, whatever we call them, they have an obsessive penchant for specific number sets and dates. An excellent recent example is 9/11/01 and 3/11/11, you see? It goes on and on like that with this bunch however for today we shall confine our selves to just the April 19 thing. Certainly the number 19 is of some significance although I have no clue as to exactly what. To gain a better perspective on this notion that significant events happen on that day let’s have a look at the record, as these events all happened on April 19th.
1939 – Connecticutfinally ratifies the Bill of Rights. [148 Yrs. late]
1941 – Bulgarian troops invade Macedonia.
1943 – Jews attack Nazi forces in Warsaw ghetto.
1944 – allied fleet attacks Sabang, Sumatra
1948 – Chiang Kai-Shek elected Nationalist China’s president
1948 – ABC Network begins
1951 – General McArthur Quits
1962 – NASA takes the experimental X-15 prototype to 46,900 miles
1967 – Surveyor III lands on the moon
1971 – The USSRlaunches 1st manned space station. Salyut-7
1971 – Charles Manson sentenced to life
1972 – United States detonates a nuclear test device at the Nevada site.
1973 – USSRdetonates a nuclear test device at Semipalitinsk
1975 – Indialaunches its first satellite into orbit
1978 – Yitzak Navron elected as 5th Israeli President
1983 – Francedetonates a nuclear test device
1985 – USSRdetonates another nuclear test device
1985 – NASA’s 16th space shuttle launches into orbit
1987 – USSRunderground nuclear test conducted
1989 – Gun turret aboard the battleship Iowaexploded killing 47
1993 – The Branch Davidian WACO massacre
1995 – The Oklahoma City bombing
2005 – Pope Ratzinger [recently resigned] elected to office
2006 – Han Myung-Sook elected as South KoreaPrime Minister
2011 – Fidel Castro quits as Cuban President.
Especially with the coming 7th anniversary of South Korean Prime Minister Han Myung-Sook’s rise to power occurring on the 19th, Kim Un’s ranting may seem a bit less hollow! An additional note of interest is that the ‘pre-conditioning’ continues the night of April 15th this year with the debut of the Sci-Fi channel’s latest dystopian psycho-drama to keep us full to the brim and overflowing with fear and loathing; called Defiance. Be sure to tune in just in case you aren’t already sufficiently scared out of your wits. For many years now the elites have favored building sophisticated underground bunkers, vaults, and in the case of the ever more mysterious new Denver international airport; entire underground cities. Care to guess which airport Obama flew in from? The pace at which these projects are undertaken has quickened considerably in recent years, and in fact I believe they were renovating the white house not too long ago, I recall the newscaster said something about putting in a new wine cellar for the president.
The prepper movement I mentioned earlier is truly at epidemic proportions for a country which has traditionally been rigidly convinced of its own integrity. I wonder why that is? I think it’s for two very sound reasons. People can sense the approach of the black swan, and they feel utterly powerless to stop the insanity they see with their own eyes. Maybe mitigating factors prevent them from saying anything about such things, but everyone sees them just the same, and it’s eating at us like a cancerous growth in the soul.
Ascension or Assimilation?
Among the good news; and there is actually a lot out there, (it just gets swept under the carpet) is the fact that the entiregovernment isn’t all evil. There are authentic human beings quietly working within the system, who do what they can to slow it down, de-rail planned events, toss a shoe or two into the works. Remember a few years back, the story about how nuclear arms were almost flown cross-country, without orders or authorization; under the wings of an aging B-52 bomber? Recall that one? I do. the whole nasty mess was being done under the ‘radar‘ so to speak because Cheney & Blackwater wanted to kick start a nuclear war in the mid east. Those nukes weren’t going overseas folks, the bastards intended to use them right here on American soil, just like 911, to justify starting the world on fire. The reason the whole plan failed was on account of an airman named Blue, who refused to be intimidated, and blew the whistle on the whole nasty mess. A while later he died under very unusual circumstances; just like all those witnesses to the JFK murder, and all those microbiologists who have mysteriously died since 911? How about the suspicious 2002 death of senator Paul Wellstone? Or Lee Oswald & Jack Ruby; and the beat goes on, and on just like that. Take solace in the knowing that each one of these silent, invisible warriors within the corrupt system might just be a kind of black swan themselves. Things are not always as they appear, especially nowadays.
In the silence at the heart of things we humans are embarking upon the homeward bound leg of a journey lasting many thousands of years. The things we are facing now are but the final exam for that homeward trek. Some will remain here, on this dying 4th dimensional Earth to work out their karma or whatever, waiting for their time to be right to leave. Others are ready now, and preparing themselves for the next step in human evolution, ascending into the fifth dimension. Like so many other things, it is a simple choice, and each will decide according with the needs and dictates of their soul, and higher self. Each persons choice will be made in accordance with what that individual soul needs in order to remain fluid within the eternal order of procession.
There is no them or us, good or bad, right or wrong in all this, it just is! Those recently awakened ones have it the worst I think, having to grasp so many huge, convoluted subjects & ideas so quickly, then to process &integrate the new knowledge on the fly! So when you meet one, stop and welcome them to the world of the fifth sun, help them if you can and if you can’t don’t stand in their way because you just never know…
Bob Dylan once taught us that those not busy being born are busy dying and I for one am glad he is around to see what that really looks like, because we may need him again before we’re done with all this. A good friend of mine in Alaska has a big poster over the fireplace mantle that says, “My life was half way over before I figured out it is a do-it-yourself kind of job.” I’m remembering that tonight I suppose because it kinda describes the way out of this place. We certainly need to avail ourselves of the very best information we can find, add that to what we already know; and then try to intuit our way along. I have a sneaking suspicion that the final exam is going to be heavy on intuition, so never discount or devalue yours…it might just save your life someday.
If I knew exactly when &where the Black Swan will appear, I would probably be blurting it out right now, but I don’t know, for sure. I think that is because it might just be one of those things we don’t get to know the answer to. There is a mandatory memory wipe prior to incarnation for a reason; and that reason is it isn’t enough to do the right thing at the right time, we must also do it for the right reason, and foreknowledge might get in the way of that. It’s that free will and destiny thing, you understand. As we collectively wait for the black swan to appear, if it is due at all right now, we might make some extra time in our busy days. Not to be a prepper, but simply to prepare yourself the best you can for something you cannot describe, only feel. Whenever you are in doubt, confusion or fear just breathe deeply, relax, and be still. Your soul will tell you what to do next. This of course applies equally well in everyday life, not just when the end of the world as we know it may be at hand.
Until Next Time ~ Be good to Each Other
Killshot – Maj. Ed Dames
Is Cyprus the Black Swan?
Related Augureye Posts & Links
/alternative/2013/04/a-hopi-elder-speaks-the-moment-has-come-2610530.html *
http://zen-haven.com/third-of-us-west-coast-children-hit-with-thyroid-problems-following-fukushima/
http://thediplomat.com/2013/02/13/5-ways-china-could-become-a-democracy/
http://zen-haven.com/third-of-us-west-coast-children-hit-with-thyroid-problems-following-fukushima/
http://thediplomat.com/2013/02/13/5-ways-china-could-become-a-democracy/
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-06/home/31126333_1_unemployment-rate-economy-black-swan
http://www.davidicke.com/headlines/82173-arkansas-hit-with-nuclear-accident-and-major-oil-spill
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/november/black-swan-risk-111612.html
http://www.alternet.org/147-people-destroying-world
http://video.pbs.org/video/2276855477/**
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1
http://www.historyorb.com/events/april/19
/japan-earthquake/2013/02/radiation-of-the-pacific-ocean-in-the-next-10-years-japan-nuclear-disaster-video-2441044.html*
http://www.auroraborealispage.net/solarmax.html
2013-04-04 02:05:55
Source: http://augureye.blogspot.com/2013/04/waiting-for-black-swan.html
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Fantastic article.
Great to see an American who is not aggressive, xeophobic, intolerant, moronic, a religious zealot, or scare-monger, but who is well-informed and aware of issues bigger than who won ‘X Factor’.
Thanks for sharing – namasté…