Here’s Another Reason The Housing Market Will Re-Collapse
TND Guest Contributor: Dave Kranzler |
83% of the college graduating class of 2014 does not have a job:
83% of graduating seniors said they didn’t have a job lined up as of April 2014, despite 72.7% reporting that they were actively looking for one. This is a jump from the 80% of graduating seniors who didn’t have a job lined up at the same time last year. (Article Link)
This is your first-time buyer cohort which historically has represented 40% of the housing market.
The housing market bulls are making a big deal out of the fact that the percentage of cash buyers is rising. This is actually very bearish. As the number of true, organic buyers declines, its mathematically guaranteed that cash sales as percent of total sales will increase.
Why is this bearish? Because according the NAR statistics, the majority of cash sales go to individual “investors,” i.e. “flippers.” It real, end-user buyers don’t show up to buy, to whom will the flippers flip?
In other words, the housing market has become analogous to a Ponzi scheme. But when the music stops…
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I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy. You can follow my work and contact me via my website Investment Research Dynamics. Occasionally, I publish on Seeking Alpha too.
As a co-founder and principal of Golden Returns Capital, LLC Mr. Kranzler co-manages the Precious Metals Opportunity Fund, a metals and mining stock investment fund.
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