1.2 Million Ebola Deaths Projected In 6 Months

Alarmed researcher presents econometric simulation model

WND

JEROME R. CORSI

NEW YORK – An econometric simulation model based on the assumption the World Health Organization and others will be unable to control the Ebola outbreak in West Africa predicts 1.2 million people will die from the disease in the next six months.

Six months is the minimum time the WHO projects will be necessary to contain the epidemic.

In his analysis, econometrics research assistant Francis Smart at Michigan State University took seriously the conclusions of Canadian researchers who proved the strain of Ebola in the current West African epidemic could go airborne.

The Ebola virus could be transmitted between humans through breathing, Smart says.

In developing the model, Smart began with WHO’s Aug. 28 statement that the Ebola epidemic in West Africa could afflict more than 20,000 people before it is brought under control.

“This [estimate of 20,000] assumes full international backing for an intervention to control the deadly outbreak,” he wrote. “Failure to support the WHO’s plan presumably would cause the disease to continue to spread in a similar manner as it already has.”

He continued: “At first a figure as high as 20,000 seems exaggerated, especially when looking just at the number of 3,000 cases reported the same day as the announcement. However, I believe that this estimate is vastly too small and is entirely based on an effective and well-funded international relief mission.”

Using contrary assumptions, Smart came to a dramatically different conclusion.

“Using a projection from all the WHO reports to date (Sept. 5), I calculate that if the disease continues to spread at the rate it currently is then we will have more than 20,000 cases by October 24. The report states that it will likely take six to nine months in order to stop the epidemic. However, if nothing changes and the epidemic continues to rage as it currently does, then my projections estimate that as many as 4.7 million people will have been infected and 1.2 million will have already died.”

He argues the projections are possible, considering the population of Liberia is over 4 million, with Guinea at 10 million and Sierra Leone at 6 million.

With these numbers, he argues the real question becomes: “Do we think the ability of Liberia and the other afflicted nations to control the spread of Ebola will increase, decrease or remain the same over time?”

Analyzing the data, he concluded Liberia is significantly behind Guinea, Sierra Leone and Nigeria in the ability to diagnose, isolate and treat Ebola victims.

Read More Here

Reposted with permission