USGS: California Has More Than a 99% Chance of a Large Earthquake Hitting Within 30 Years

A portion of the San Andreas Fault

The United States Geological Survey has used a new model to forecast the risks of a major earthquake in California. Overall they are forecasting that California is l99% certain to suffer a major earthquake during the next 30 years, something most Californians probably had already worked out.

What the new model does do, that the old one didn’t, is break down which faults in which areas are likely to rupture.

The consensus of the scientific community on forecasting California earthquakes allows for meaningful comparisons of earthquake probabilities in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, as well as comparisons among several large faults.

The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous Bay Area estimates. For the entire California region, the fault with the highest probability of generating at least one magnitude 6.7 quake or larger is the southern San Andreas (59% in the next 30 years).

For northern California, the most likely source of such earthquakes is the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault (31% in the next 30 years). Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes.

Earthquake probabilities for many parts of the state are similar to those in previous studies, but the new probabilities calculated for the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults in southern California are about half those previously determined. For the far northwestern part of the State, a major source of earthquakes is the offshore 750-mile-long Cascadia Subduction Zone, the southern part of which extends about 150 miles into California. For the next 30 years there is a 10% probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake somewhere along that zone. Such quakes occur about once every 500 years on average. (source)

Lead Scientist at USGS, Ned field said:

“This new, comprehensive forecast advances our understanding of earthquakes and pulls together existing research with new techniques and data,” explained USGS geophysicist and lead scientist Ned Field. “Planners, decision makers and California residents can use this information to improve public safety and mitigate damage before the next destructive earthquake occurs.” (source)

There are many excellent resources that cover planning for earthquakes and their aftermath. Here are a few of them.

Resources:

The Prepper’s Blueprint: The Step-By-Step Guide To Help You Through Any Disaster

Disaster Center

USGS

CDC

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Contributed by Chris Carrington of The Daily Sheeple.

Chris Carrington is a writer, researcher and lecturer with a background in science, technology and environmental studies. Chris is an editor for The Daily Sheeple. Wake the flock up!