Russian Nuclear Threat! Could Vladimir Putin Really Push the Red Button?

Russian Nuclear Threat! Could Vladimir Putin Really Push the Red Button?

2 Apr 15

Important updates folks. Do we have WW3 looming in our not so distant future?

Notes from a recent meeting in Germany held under the auspices of the Elbe group, bringing together retired American and Russian intelligence officials, presented a stark warning from Russia over Ukraine and the Baltic States. The Russian delegation, said to have been briefed by the Kremlin, relayed the message that Russia would respond with force, including nuclear, in cases where it felt threatened.

This particularly pertained to three key areas: any attempt to return Crimea to Ukraine; the supply of weapons by Nato to Ukraine and on Nato military build-up in the Baltic States, three countries where Russia sees “the same conditions that existed in Ukraine and caused Russia to take action there”.

Nato is enhancing its response force by creating a Spearhead Force with the capability of rapidly responding to security threats, and there are plans to establish six multinational command and control elements in Europe, including in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

This is not the first time within the context of the Ukraine crisis that Putin has emphasised Russia’s willingness to use its nuclear arsenal. In the Crimea: Path to the Motherland documentary released in March 2015, Putin said that he was ready to put Russia’s nuclear weapons into a state of combat readiness during the tension over Crimea’s annexation.

In the same month, a senior Russian Foreign Ministry official said that Russia has the right to place nuclear weapons in Crimea, as it planned to deploy 10 Tupolev 22M3 strategic bombers to the peninsula. Recent military exercises included plans to move nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad.

Although the revised Russian military doctrine in December 2014 is not new in its allowance of tactical nuclear weapons in the case of a conventional attack that “threatens the very existence” of the Russian state, given the strengthening of Russia’s narrative regarding its own perceived encirclement by Nato, such threats are potentially open to more dangerous interpretation.

An increasing challenge for the West is the difficulty in determining whether Russia is highlighting nuclear force for the purposes of scaremongering and intimidation, leverage in negotiations, or whether there is a real threat of an attack.

The increase in snap military exercises, greater presence of Russian bomber patrols around European airspace and increased naval activity, particularly around the Baltics, are deliberate. Although Russia claims these are routine, and they do not violate international rules, they are intentionally provocative given the current tension with Europe. MORE