Housing Starts Plunge; Apartment Building Bubble Is Popping – Dave Kranzler

Every new apartment building in Denver is now offering one month free as a move-in incentive; some buildings will give you two months free if you push them. There are at least 12 new big buildings in central Denver in various stages of construction. – Investment Research Dynamics

TND Guest Contributor:  Dave Kranzler |

Housing starts plunged 11% in May LINK.  Ironically, this comes a day after the National Home Building Associating reported huge jump in homebuilder “sentiment.”  Let’s remember, “hope” is not a valid investment strategy.

This housing starts number is about as bearish as it can get for the new construction market.  It is also consistent with my detailed research which shows that homebuilder companies have accumulated an all-time high level of inventory, despite a unit sales run-rate which is about 60% below the previous all-time high in inventory back in 2005:

As you can see from this graph to the left which shows homebuilder “sentiment,” industry “hope” has perilously disconnected from the reality of sales. Today’s housing starts report is consistent with the actual transaction data. Since when has a business – other than tele-evangelists – ever been able to convert “hope” into cash flow?

The Orwellian financial media is going to focus on the “housing permits” number.  But, to begin with, the filing of building permit is not a valid economic metric.  It costs next to nothing to file a permit and the act of filing for a permit merely gives a builder the right to build.  Second, and more important, the large jump in permits was for mult-family units:

Despite signs of a glut forming in apartment buildings in most cities, builders filed “permits” to build even more buildings. I know from my own due diligence that every new building in Denver will offer a new tenant up to two months free as a move-in incentive. I am getting reader reports of similar
apartment gluts in many other cities.

Six years of ZIRP and $3.6 trillion of printed money has stimulated an unprecedented degree and catastrophic amount of capital misallocation.  Massive bubbles have formed in every major asset category:   bonds, stocks, real estate and collectibles.

The bubble that has reformed in the housing market is going to result in a more painful collapse than the original housing bubble.  More on this later, but data available from the National Association of Realtors and RealtyTrac shows that 40% of the sales volume this year has been driven by individual investor/flippers.  We are at the point in the cycle at which many of them will be left “holding the bag.”   To compound the problem, many of these “retail” home traders are now using mortgages to fund their  game of hot potato.

I can’t speak on this for every major city, but I know for a fact that in metro-Denver there has been a recent “flood” in home listings.  Even more indicative, I am now receiving “new price” alerts via REColorado several times a day, mostly in the over $800,000 price range. The glut that has formed in both rental apartments and higher end homes for sale in Denver is nothing short of stunning.

The Fed is out of the type of bullets that can be used to support the massive Housing Bubble 2.0 that it has premeditatively blown.  Interest rates are already at zero, although starting to rise uncontrollably on the longer end.  Mortgage rates have blown out close 100 basis points from the recent bottom.  Easy credit has flooded the mortgage banking system in many different forms.

To be sure, the Fed can print a lot more money – and most likely will.  But at this point in the game it will be the equivalent of pushing on the proverbial string.  Only this time the hole through which the Fed will be trying to push the string will be closed.

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About Dave Kranzler:

 I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy. You can follow my work and contact me via my website Investment Research Dynamics.  Occasionally, I publish on Seeking Alpha too. As a co-founder and principal of Golden Returns Capital, LLC Mr. Kranzler co-manages the Precious Metals Opportunity Fund, a metals and mining stock investment fund.

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