More Carnage In Oil Before We Bottom; Impacts, Opportunities – Roger Conrad

TND Podcast Spotlight:  Wall St for Main St |

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, investment analyst, long time investment newsletter writer and co-founder of Capitalist Times, Roger Conrad.

Roger has over 20 years experience as an investment analyst covering dividend stocks, utilities, and oil and energy investments. Roger is well respected in the industry for his acumen finding good income producing companies. Click here to read Roger’s full bio.

During this 30+ minute interview, Jason asks Roger about whether oil prices have bottomed or will go lower before they bottom? Roger and his business partner, Elliot Gue think oil will bottom in the 20-25 range and there’s more carnage to come in oil. However, Roger thinks oil will probably bottom before 2016 ends and then it may settle into a wide trading range between 40-60 where it would be “lower for longer” like in the 1980s oil bear market.

Roger thinks there’s many more oil companies with too much debt who will go bankrupt soon because they can’t make their debt payments or their oil production costs are still too high.

Roger thinks the oil price recovery will resemble the 1980s until a lot more oil production is cut.

Roger thinks there’s good bargains to find for careful contrarian value investors but that people have to be careful picking out which companies.

Jason then asks Roger about possible dividend cuts coming up for the larger oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, etc. Roger thinks some of the bigger guys may cut their dividends a certain amount but that they will cut other spending as much as they can before cutting the dividend if possible.

Roger says it’s a buyers market for oil companies with cash and solid balance sheets looking to buy fire sale assets for cheap and many companies aren’t in a hurry to rush into larger acquisitions. Roger thinks the next few years will bring very large acquisitions for Chevron and ExxonMobil after oil starts to recover into the 40-60 range.

Roger also gives his favorite income master limited partnership (MLP) stock pick, which is a midstream pipeline and service company.

To wrap up the interview, Jason and Roger discuss the ability of Russia and OPEC to actually cut oil production or if many of these oil producing countries are actually close to bankruptcy and need large oil revenues at any oil price.

If you are a value investor and looking for income or good companies at cheap prices this is a great and informative interview to start doing research on the companies Roger mentions.

Roger is a wealth of information about the oil industry.

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