Yes webbot was on to a dead certain thing when it(the site) claims dam failures causing flooding and 100,000′s to flee without giving out the location and dates beforehand. i.e the number of Dams in the world -Circa 515,000 and since the 12th C over 2000 Dams have failed and 200 Reservoirs have failed we can largely discount anything between 1900 and 1200 simply because the majority of all Dams have been built since 1900. we will give the odds of failure at 117/2200 *100/1 or 5% per year but we start with 5% at 1900 we add these percentages together in probability in the specific rule formulae i.e (5/1)*(5/2)=12.5% where 5 is the percentage of dam failures over a 117 year period divided by years from 1900 as the first event probability times the next event probability. SUM[(5/1)*(5/n-1)=]
to be more realistic we have the (5/177) probability set as year 1900 because new dams which are maintained rarely fail. i.e SUM[(5/117)*(5/n-1)=]total probability of dam failures 20th C which is about 24% by 2017
Philosophers stone – selected views from the boat http://philosophers-stone.co.uk
Yes webbot was on to a dead certain thing when it(the site) claims dam failures causing flooding and 100,000′s to flee without giving out the location and dates beforehand. i.e the number of Dams in the world -Circa 515,000 and since the 12th C over 2000 Dams have failed and 200 Reservoirs have failed we can largely discount anything between 1900 and 1200 simply because the majority of all Dams have been built since 1900. we will give the odds of failure at 117/2200 *100/1 or 5% per year but we start with 5% at 1900 we add these percentages together in probability in the specific rule formulae i.e (5/1)*(5/2)=12.5% where 5 is the percentage of dam failures over a 117 year period divided by years from 1900 as the first event probability times the next event probability. SUM[(5/1)*(5/n-1)=]
to be more realistic we have the (5/177) probability set as year 1900 because new dams which are maintained rarely fail. i.e SUM[(5/117)*(5/n-1)=]total probability of dam failures 20th C which is about 24% by 2017
Probability of Event Year Of Event From 2017 till 1900 Total Probability
5 1 12.5
2.5 2 4.1666666667
1.6666666667 3 2.0833333333
1.25 4 1.25
1 5 0.8333333333
0.8333333333 6 0.5952380952
0.7142857143 7 0.4464285714
0.625 8 0.3472222222
0.5555555556 9 0.2777777778
0.5 10 0.2272727273
0.4545454545 11 0.1893939394
0.4166666667 12 0.1602564103
0.3846153846 13 0.1373626374
0.3571428571 14 0.119047619
0.3333333333 15 0.1041666667
0.3125 16 0.0919117647
0.2941176471 17 0.0816993464
0.2777777778 18 0.0730994152
0.2631578947 19 0.0657894737
0.25 20 0.0595238095
0.2380952381 21 0.0541125541
0.2272727273 22 0.0494071146
0.2173913043 23 0.0452898551
0.2083333333 24 0.0416666667
0.2 25 0.0384615385
0.1923076923 26 0.0356125356
0.1851851852 27 0.0330687831
0.1785714286 28 0.0307881773
0.1724137931 29 0.0287356322
0.1666666667 30 0.0268817204
0.1612903226 31 0.0252016129
0.15625 32 0.0236742424
0.1515151515 33 0.0222816399
0.1470588235 34 0.0210084034
0.1428571429 35 0.0198412698
0.1388888889 36 0.0187687688
0.1351351351 37 0.0177809388
0.1315789474 38 0.0168690958
0.1282051282 39 0.016025641
0.125 40 0.0152439024
0.1219512195 41 0.0145180023
0.119047619 42 0.0138427464
0.1162790698 43 0.0132135307
0.1136363636 44 0.0126262626
0.1111111111 45 0.0120772947
0.1086956522 46 0.0115633673
0.1063829787 47 0.0110815603
0.1041666667 48 0.0106292517
0.1020408163 49 0.0102040816
0.1 50 0.0098039216
0.0980392157 51 0.0094268477
0.0961538462 52 0.0090711176
0.0943396226 53 0.0087351502
0.0925925926 54 0.0084175084
0.0909090909 55 0.0081168831
0.0892857143 56 0.0078320802
0.0877192982 57 0.0075620085
0.0862068966 58 0.0073056692
0.0847457627 59 0.0070621469
0.0833333333 60 0.0068306011
0.0819672131 61 0.0066102591
0.0806451613 62 0.0064004096
0.0793650794 63 0.0062003968
0.078125 64 0.0060096154
0.0769230769 65 0.0058275058
0.0757575758 66 0.0056535504
0.0746268657 67 0.0054872695
0.0735294118 68 0.0053282182
0.0724637681 69 0.0051759834
0.0714285714 70 0.0050301811
0.0704225352 71 0.0048904538
0.0694444444 72 0.0047564688
0.0684931507 73 0.0046279156
0.0675675676 74 0.0045045045
0.0666666667 75 0.0043859649
0.0657894737 76 0.0042720437
0.0649350649 77 0.0041625042
0.0641025641 78 0.0040571243
0.0632911392 79 0.0039556962
0.0625 80 0.0038580247
0.0617283951 81 0.0037639265
0.0609756098 82 0.0036732295
0.0602409639 83 0.0035857717
0.0595238095 84 0.0035014006
0.0588235294 85 0.0034199726
0.0581395349 86 0.0033413526
0.0574712644 87 0.0032654127
0.0568181818 88 0.0031920327
0.0561797753 89 0.0031210986
0.0555555556 90 0.0030525031
0.0549450549 91 0.0029861443
0.0543478261 92 0.0029219261
0.0537634409 93 0.0028597575
0.0531914894 94 0.0027995521
0.0526315789 95 0.0027412281
0.0520833333 96 0.0026847079
0.0515463918 97 0.0026299179
0.0510204082 98 0.0025767883
0.0505050505 99 0.0025252525
0.05 100 0.0024752475
0.0495049505 101 0.0024267133
0.0490196078 102 0.0023795926
0.0485436893 103 0.0023338312
0.0480769231 104 0.0022893773
0.0476190476 105 0.0022461815
0.0471698113 106 0.0022041968
0.046728972 107 0.0021633783
0.0462962963 108 0.0021236833
0.0458715596 109 0.0020850709
0.0454545455 110 0.002047502
0.045045045 111 0.0020109395
0.0446428571 112 0.0019753477
0.0442477876 113 0.0019406924
0.0438596491 114 0.0019069413
0.0434782609 115 0.001874063
0.0431034483 116 0.0018420277
0.0427350427 117 0.0018108069
0.0423728814 118
24.7881355932
Source(http://www.assakkaf.com/Courses/ENCE620/Lectures/Chapter5b.pdf)