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Syria: Putin Makes an Offer to Israel, Will Israel Refuse?

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By Alastair Crooke

“Israel is climbing up a high horse,” Alex Fishman (the veteran Israeli Defence Correspondent) wrote in the Hebrew daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, last month, “and is approaching with giant steps a ‘war of choice’: Without mincing words, it’s an initiated war in Lebanon.” In Fishman’s article, he notes: “Classical deterrence is when you threaten an enemy not to harm you in your territory, but here, Israel demands that the enemy refrain from doing something in its own territory, otherwise Israel will harm it. From a historical perspective and from the perspective of international legitimacy, the chances of this threat being accepted as valid, leading to the cessation of enemy activities in its own territory, are slim.”

Ben Caspit also wrote about a fair prospect of a “war of choice,” whilst a Haaretz editorial – explains Professor Idan Landau in an Israeli news blog – noted: “The Israeli government therefore owes Israeli citizens a precise, pertinent and persuasive explanation as to why a missile factory in Lebanon has changed the strategic balance to the extent that it requires going to war. It must present assessments to the Israeli public as to the expected number of casualties, damage to civilian infrastructure and the economic cost of going to war, as compared with the danger that construction of the missile factory constitutes.”

We live dangerous times in the Middle East today – both in the immediate present, and in the mid-term, too.

Last week saw the first ‘game changer’ that almost plunged the region into war: the downing of one of Israel’s most sophisticated aircraft – an F16i. But as Amos Harel notes, on this occasion: “Russian President Vladimir Putin put an end to the confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria – and both sides accepted his decision … On Saturday afternoon, after the second wave of bombardments … senior Israeli officials were still taking a militant line, and it seemed as if Jerusalem was considering further military action. Discussion of that ended not long after a phone call between Putin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu” (emphasis added).

And that last statement represented the second ‘game changer’: In ‘good old days’, as Martin Indyk called it, it would have been to the US that Israel reflexively would have turned, but not this time. Israel asked President Putin to mediate. It seems that Israel believes that Mr Putin is now the ‘indispensable power’. And in terms of airspace in the north, he is. As Ronen Bergman wrote in the New York Times: “Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations”; and secondly, “if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region”.

So, what is all this about? Well for a start, it is not about a drone which may (or may not) have trespassed into what Israel calls Israel, or what Syria sees as ‘occupied Golan’. Let us ignore all that: or, think of it as ‘the butterfly wing effect’ in chaos theory, whose tiny wing changes ‘the world’, if you prefer. Ultimately however, these various warnings of impending war, precipitated out from the Syrian State’s success in defeating the jihadi insurgency mounted against it. This outcome has changed the regional balance of power – and we are witnessing states reacting to that strategic defeat.

Israel, having backed the losing side, wants to limit its losses. It fears the changes taking place across the northern tier of the region: Prime Minister Netanyahu has several times sought guarantees from President Putin that Iran and Hizbullah should not be allowed to gain any strategic advantage from Syria’s victory that might be to Israel’s disadvantage. But Putin, it seems clear, gave no guarantees. He told Netanyahu that whilst he recognised, and acknowledged Israel’s security interests, Russia had its interests, too – and also underlined that Iran was a “strategic partner” of Russia.

In practice, there is no effective Iranian or Hizbullah presence in any proximate vicinity to Israel (and indeed both Iran and Hizbullah have substantially pared their forces in Syria as a whole). But, it seems that Netanyahu wanted more: And to put leverage on Russia to guarantee a future Syria, free from any ‘Shi’a presence, Israel has been bombing Syria on almost a weekly basis, and issuing a series of war-like threats against Lebanon (on the pretext that Iran was constructing ‘sophisticated missile’ factories there), saying, in effect to President Putin, that if you do not give ironclad guarantees vis-à-vis a Syria free of Iran and Hizbullah, we will disrupt both countries.

Well, what happened is that Israel lost an F16: unexpectedly shot down by the Syrian air defences. The message is this: ‘Stability in Syria and Lebanon is a Russian interest. Whilst, we recognise Israel’s security interests, don’t mess with ours. If you want a war with Iran that is your business, and Russia will not be involved; but do not forget that Iran is, and remains our strategic partner’.

This is Putin’s Grand Bargain: Russia will assume a certain defined responsibility for Israel’s security, but not if Israel undertakes wars of choice against Iran and Hizbullah, or if it deliberately disrupts stability in the North (including Iraq). And no more gratuitous bombing raids in the north, intended to disrupt stability. But if Israel wants a war with Iran, then Russia will stand aloof.

Israel has now had a taste of President Putin’s ‘stick’: Your air superiority in the North has just been punctured by the Syrian air defences. You, Israel, will lose it completely were our Russian S400s air defences to be enabled: ‘Think it over’.

In case of doubt, consider this statement in 2017, by the Chief of Staff of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov. He said: “Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria. We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping”.

Two things flow from this: First, that Russia knew exactly what was going on when the Israeli F16 met with a barrage of Syrian air defence missiles. As Alex Fishman, doyen of Israeli defence correspondents, noted (in Hebrew) Yediot Ahoronot on 11 February: “One of the [Israeli] planes was hit by the two barrages of 27 Syrian surface-to-air missiles… which is a huge achievement for the Syrian army, and embarrassing for the IAF, since the electronic warfare systems that envelope the plane were supposed to have provided protection from a barrage of missiles… The IAF is going to have to conduct an in-depth technical-intelligence inquiry to determine: are the Syrians in possession of systems that are capable of bypassing the Israeli warning and jamming systems? Have the Syrians developed a new technique that the IAF is unaware of? It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied. But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out.”

And the second: that subsequent Israeli claims that Syria was then punished by Israel through the destruction of 50% of her air defence system should be taken with a big pinch of salt. Recall what Meshcheryakov said: It was a fully integrated, unified Russian-Syrian system, which is to say it had a Russian flag flying over it. (And this initial Israeli claim has now been back-peddled by the IDF spokesman; see here).

Finally, Putin, in the wake of the F16 downing, told Israel to stop destabilising Syria. He said nothing about Syria’s drone patrolling the southern border (a regular Syrian practice for monitoring insurgent groups in the south).

The message is clear: Israel gets Russia’s limited security guarantees, but loses its freedom of action. Without air domination (which Russia already has seized), the assumed superiority over its neighbouring Arab states – which Israel long since has folded into its collective psyche – will see Israel’s wings clipped.

Can such a bargain be digested culturally in Israel? We must wait to see whether Israel’s leaders accept that they no longer enjoy air superiority over Lebanon or Syria; or whether, as the Israeli commentators warn in our introductory quotes, the Israeli political leadership will opt for a ‘war of choice’, in an attempt to pre-empt Israel’s final loss of its domination of the skies. There is, of course, a further option of running to Washington, in order to try to co-opt America into adopting the eviction of Iran from Syria – but our guess is that Putin has already quietly squared Trump with his plan beforehand. Who knows?

And would then a preventive war to try recuperate Israeli air superiority be feasible or realistic from the perspective of the Israeli Defence Forces? It’s a moot point. A third of Israelis are culturally, and ethnically, Russian, and many admire President Putin. Also, could Israel count, in such circumstances, on Russia not using its own highly sophisticated S400 air-defence missiles, stationed in Syria, in order to protect Russian servicemen stationed across Syria?

And the Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese tensions, in themselves, do not bring an end to the present clutch of risks associated with Syria. On the same weekend, Turkey lost a helicopter and its two crew, brought down by Kurdish forces in Afrin. Sentiment in Turkey against the YPG and PKK is heating up; nationalism and New Ottomanism is spiking; and America is being angrily portrayed as Turkey’s “strategic enemy”. President Erdogan asserts forcefully that Turkish forces will clear all the YPG/PKK forces from Afrin to the Euphrates, but an American general says that American troops will not budge from blocking Erdogan’s route, midway – at Manbij. Who will blink first? And, can this escalation continue without a major rupture to Turkish-US relations? (Erdogan has already noted that America’s defense budget for 2019 includes an allocation of $550 million for the YPG. What exactly does Americamean by that provision?).

Also, can a US military leadership, concerned to play-out a re-make of the Vietnam war – but with America winning this time (to show that the Vietnam outcome was a wholly unmerited defeat for the US forces) – accept to pull back from its aggressively imposed occupation of Syria, east of the Euphrates, and thus lose further credibility? Particularly when restoring US military credibility and leverage is the very mantra of the White House generals (and Trump)? Or, will the pursuit of US military ‘credibility’ degenerate into a game of ‘chicken’, mounted by US forces versus the Syrian Armed Forces – or even with Russia itself, which views the US occupation in Syria as inherently disturbing to the regional stability which Russia is trying to establish.

The ‘big picture’ competition between states for the future of Syria (and the region) – is open and visible. But who lay behind these other provocations, which could equally have led to escalation, and quite easily slipped the region towards conflict? Who provided the man portable surface-to-air missile that brought down the Russian SU25 fighter – and which ended, with the pilot, surrounded by jihadists, courageously preferring to kill himself with his own grenade, rather than be taken alive? Who ‘facilitated’ the insurgent group which fired the manpad? Who armed the Afrin Kurds with sophisticated anti-tank weapons (that have destroyed some twenty Turkish tanks)? Who provided the millions of dollars to engineer the tunnels and bunkers built by the Afrin Kurds, and who paid for the kitting out of its armed force?

And who was behind the swarm of drones, with explosives attached, sent to attack the main Russian airbase at Khmeimim? The drones were made to look outwardly like some simple home-made affair, which an insurgent force might cobble together, but since Russian electronic measures managed to take control and land six of them, the Russians were able to see that,internally, they were quite different: They contained sophisticated electronic counter-measures and GPS guidance systems within. In short, the rustic external was camouflage to its true sophistication, which likely represented the handiwork of a state agency. Who? Why? Was someone trying to set Russia and Turkey at each other’s throats?

We do not know. But it is plain enough that Syria is the crucible to powerful destructive forces which might advertently, or inadvertently, ignite Syria – and – potentially, the Middle East. And as the Israeli defence correspondent, Amos Harel, wrote, we have already this last weekend, “come a hair’s breadth from a slide into war”.

Author Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat, founder and director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum. This article was orginally published at Strategic Culture.

READ MORE ISRAEL NEWS AT: 21st Century Wire Israel Files

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Source: http://21stcenturywire.com/2018/02/18/syria-putin-makes-offer-israel-will-israel-refuse/


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    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    Total 16 comments
    • 2QIK4U

      Take take take thats all they do. The word Give is a sin to them. But CHRISTIANS now you understand you must stick with the Jews even harder because its the christian jews versus the muslim world and Obama had a decade start. Get rid of the alien vermin before cleaning house. Its THE ONLY WAY TO SURVIVE AND WIN ULTIMATELY. Soldier on

    • truck driver

      Cat and mouse game

    • patann

      Early To Mighty, The Fields Are White to Harvest, 02/18/2018

      Hello, Anybody Out There?
      http://cometotoderickandoceanaescape18.blogspot.com/2018/01/prophecy-link-lyrics-to-this-song-woke.html

      Prophecy Link

      -Doing a dream, 01/14/2018, my Memphis (see New Madrid, Northwest Tennessee), son looked at me and said, my concerns after him, had the downtown news paper bells ringing (little did I know, scientist were saying the same about an outbreak of earthquakes having earth’s bells ringing).

      And This Beast Was Made To Stand On Two Feet And A Man’s Heart Was Given Into It
      http://www.2015jesuscomeknocking.blogspot.com

      -How Revolutional To Even My Thirty Year Escape To Africa Work, Justifiable, Marvel’s Black Panther, Induction Of Another Personna Of Just Another Perfect, Dangerous Man, That While Black Panther Saved His African Nation, The Primary White Man In The Movie, The Colonizer The Innovator Sister Called Him, The Black Panther Hans Solo, As Usual Saved The World. Only My African Darius, The Deliverer and Ruler This World Into Christ Lord Jesus, These Thirty Plus Years, Leading The Exodus Of America and the World, Is A Perfect Jesus Man;
      -Jesus said Another Would Come In His Own Name, AntiChrist and Until We Instead Cry, Blessed Is He Who Cometh In The Name Of The Lord, Helpless The Mighty Is Overcome By Ancient Beast to AntiChrist Reign; Now Unless Jesus, The Only Perfect Man Maker, The World Savior Keep All His Promises and Shorten These Evil Days; That By Abominable Sickbeds And Sleepovers Having Thrown Many Into The Greatest Of Tribulation; Without God’s Promises, Without Measure The Human Being Is Extinct, Cataclysmically, There Is Just No Other way To Say It, Elohim, God had Us, Keep Us, Judged Us And Saved US, God Alone Is God, see St. John, 3:16, Apb, see entire blog, here, http://elenintime.blogspot.com/2018/02/how-revolutional-to-even-justifiable.html

      PS. Any good and supposedly perfect gift men can offer, yet your damnation remain, are no different than the godship Lucifer was offering the first Adam/Genesis marriage, so ridiculous. So otherworldly, so monstrous and murderous seeing Elohim God had already shaped and mold the Genesis Marriage into THEIR image. It’s Jesus explaining the accusations of liking Himslf to God, by reminding the people it is written in their own scripture that God call them gods, get ye to the repentant altars of a divine lineage of restoration, beware, Apb, The RAM, http://2017thelightofnebewe.blogspot.com/2017/12/it-was-when-bright-sunshine.html

    • HighPlainsDrifter

      or else

    • wheeties

      trump is trying to contain the nut jobs in the usa–just disclosed that nobody knows who ordered the attack on the syria and russian people at the river..HUH? so the the deep state cia is still doing its thing–the good thing is putin knows all this and is working with trump—one mistake and the middle east goes full force—and all you bible thumpers just keep talking all your jesus crap,end of world,and other nut job bs…fools,judgeMENTAL fools–god is going to kick yor ass back into stupid land where you belong(straight jacket,padded cell)

    • Anonymous

      “From a historical perspective and from the perspective of international legitimacy, the chances of this threat being accepted as valid, leading to the cessation of enemy activities in its own territory, are slim.”

      That’s a lot of bull, too. Missiles have been lobbed from Lebanon, into Israel, for a very long time now. Iran and the Iranian backed Islamic terrorists have plainly announced what is behind this, that is, the destruction of Israel. They have boasted how they have enough missiles to destroy Israel. So, somebody avows to destroy you, is shooting at you, that is, cowards bombing indiscriminate civilian targets (the idiots can’t really even target their missiles), and you propose Israel take it, in perpetuity? If somebody was shooting at your home, from across the street, would you simply live with it, until your family is dead? Where is the “international legitimacy” in acts of terrorist aggression, against civilians, that such goes unanswered? Would the U.S., for a minute, tolerate missile launches from Mexico or Canada, fill in the blank any other nation with a psycho enemy on its border, yet so hypocritically criticize Israel?

      Tell you what it’s all about, and it’s violent terrorists, anti-Semitic psychos doing the will of Satan. Israel could send them all to hell, for all I care. Good riddance! And let all the evil morons at the U.N. simply piss themselves.

      • Andy

        if somebody occupied my home, after having slaughtered my wife, kids, siblings, grandparents, uncles and aunts – and after i had the U.N. agree with me and issue 30 tabled and MANDATED U.N. S.C. resolutions to GET OUT of The Occupied Territories

        i’d be fukcing lobbing missiles at them on MY STOLEN LAND all fukcing day

    • Pink Slime

      I think you should be asking who is GIVING the Russians the ability of their weapons since communist are not capable of making their own but must steal them. This is also true of China.

      Communist are much like Negroes that live off of whites. Without capitalism Russia and China would have starved themselves out a looong time ago.

      The whole world lives off of America and its capitalism. But instead of copying it, it seeks to DESTROY it and PLUNGE the world back into the DARK AGES.

      Such is what coveting and envy does. Breaking the LAST but not LEAST Commandment! :wink:

    • beLIEve

      QUOTE from the article above….

      “….why a missile factory in Lebanon has changed the strategic balance to the extent that it requires going to war….”

      US is BANKRUPT & A PARIAH…….IF I$raHELL is financially dependent on US taxpayers…the next few years may be ..”lean”.

      As we all know the FAKE/FOE bank$ter “joo$”…NEED WAR…as a DI$TRACTION & to REPLENI$H their coffin$…..

      I mean coffer$. :smile:

      I$rael needs WAR as a distraction from the BANKRUPTCY of it’$ US backers AND…..

      There is NO POINT asking the BANKRUPT PARIAH USA for anything because……..

      TWO BANKRUPT PARIAH$…..are a sorry, sad, $KINT ….TO BE PITIED sight….and the fAR$Eical situation is………

      becoming …..beyond PATHETIC ….for those who are AWAKE. :idea:

      * * *

      The $ataNIC “narrative” reference the ashkeNAZI khazar AGENDA in….RESOURCE RICH…. Syria…. :idea:

      *

      Trolls, Mercenaries, and Narratives — Oh My!

      /politics/2018/02/trolls-mercenaries-and-narratives-oh-my-2981831.html

    • Andy

      oh how i wish the international criminal rogue nation of israel would start yet another illegal war against Hezbollah and have their asses handed to them AGAIN :eek:

      what can i say, i enjoy watching criminals get their “comeuppance” :wink:

    • Takealook

      One or two “Satan” nukes and the fake Jewish State no longer exists. This would be apt
      payback after all for 911 and the USS Liberty.

    • Gil Carlson

      Find out more about that night on Long Island when an ALIEN CRAFT was brought down with a Star Wars weapon the gov’t has been keeping secret from us – one of the most documented UFO crash and retrieval incidents ever – documented by witnesses, government informers and secret documents…
      http://www.blue-planet-project.com/ufo-crashes-secret-files-revealed.html

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