Deutsche Bank is collapsing - but it’s not the “Black Swan”

Deutsche Bank had been advertising a 5% interest rate to customers in Belgium on 90-day deposits of at least 50k euros . Bank deposits are essentially “loans” to a bank from the depositor (creditor). This implies that the rate that DB had to pay to attract deposits is equivalent to a triple-C rated credit (although the 10-yr junk bond rates for double-B rated bonds are around 5.5%, keep in mind that DB is paying 5% for 3-month money). This is the unmistakable sign of a company that is collapsing.

DB stock was down over 3% yesterday on a day when most big TBTF banks for down 1% or less. It’s down another 2.8% 3% as I write this today, trading below $15/share for the first time ever. This bank is obviously collapsing and any money manager who holds onto this stock for clients is in serious breach of fiduciary duty. This is the 2016 version of Enron.

But it won’t be a “Black Swan” event. The Central Bank authorities knew DB was going to collapse when Anshu Jain was fired in June 2015, literally about 2 weeks after DB’s board had given Jain even more control over bank operations. However, the Central Banks mentioned above collectively had a year to put a “ring” around the collateral damage – i.e. the derivative counter-party default risks – that occurs from DB collapsing.