Population Shocker: 11-Billion People By 2100
The projected rise is mostly due to fertility in Africa, where the U.N. had expected birth rates to decline more quickly than they have.
“The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up,” said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology.
The current African population is about 1.1 billion and it is now expected to reach 4.2 billion, nearly a fourfold increase, by 2100.
The new U.N. estimates use statistical methods developed by Raftery and his colleagues at the UW Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences. The group’s improved fertility forecasting methods, combined with updated data collected by the U.N., were used to project the long-term consequences of the fertility change in Africa since the last population estimate two years ago.
New to this year’s projection are finer-tuned statistics that anticipate the life expectancies of women and men across this century.
In other areas of the world, fewer major population changes are expected. Europe may see a small decline because of fertility continuing below replacement level, and other nations around the globe may see modest increases due to longer life expectancies, Raftery said.
There’s no end in sight for the increase of world population, he added, yet the topic has gone off the world’s agenda in favor of other pressing global issues, including poverty and climate – both of which have ties to world population.
“These new findings show that we need to renew policies, such as increasing access to family planning and expanding education for girls, to address rapid population growth in Africa,” Raftery said.
The UN gives high and low variants of its projections, assuming that women have an average of half a child more or less than the best projection. That leaves a large uncertainty, from 7 billion to nearly 17 billion, in the range for potential world population by the end of this century.
By contrast, the UW research group has developed probabilities of future population levels to be coupled with best forecasts. “Our probability intervals are much tighter, ranging from 9 billion to 13 billion in 2100,” Raftery said.
Global population reached 7 billion in 2011. It passed 6 billion in 1999.
Contacts and sources:
Vince Stricherz
University of Washington
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).
| Online: | |
| Visits: | 1,603,732,273 |
| Stories: | 8,151,092 |
Whistler Blowers, Insiders
Sorry, but you seem to not be putting global thermonuclear war into your little slide show equation. Try again.
Amen to that. There’s a lot of problems facing our society, but overpopulation won’t be one of them. We’ve created a complex interdepenent civilization that is completely unsustainable. So it won’t be sustained.
Humans have a lot of inate skills, but thinking ahead isn’t one of them. Neither is admitting we are driven by instinct and that instinct comes in cycles. Now killing, that we excel at, and the time we kill best is when an unsustainable society goes bad. That would be any time now.
So we’re going to go another 83 years without World War III huh? And what’s their precedent for that little gem? Let’s look at the past if we want to GUESS about the future.
History is not a linear progression, history is made by people and people act in cycles. Unfortunately, some things do move in one direction, and that something is technology. The survivors of Germantown and Brandywine were awe struck by a mere thousand casualties. During the Civil War it was tens of thousands. During WWI and WWII we expanded on that and got civilians into the act. What do you think the next series of wars will do? Just a handful of dictators killed over 100 million people during the last century (Mao did in about 60 mil.) and nobody knows what effect their actions had on people that weren’t born because of this upheaval. The wars always come after a few generations to clear away the folly of those born to peace, and they are almost here.
Unfortunately, this time is different. The special sauce on this burger is we are no longer an agricultural society. We have 7 billion people completely dependent upon just in time delivery and zero inventory merchandising. One little EMP, which is becoming increasingly easier to obtain, and a country can be brought to its knees, starved out with no hope of recovery, for decades. This, of course, ignores the fact that anybody with some knowledge and a inexpensive gene splicer can put together a doomsday bug. There’s idiots out there doing it now just for research value, let alone an evil intent. There’s never been a weapon invented in the history of the world that wasn’t used.
I laugh at their predictions. You want a prediction for world population levels on 2100? How about half, 3.5 billion, or maybe none. Both are more likely that the numbers discussed in this article.
The population problem is only an issue because the elites do not want so many living on this planet.
The earth could support about 20 billion without ruining the environment, but that would require the elites not be selfish, self-absbored and ruthless (never going to happen). The 20 billion would not be supported at the level of the rich, of course, but it would certainly be a better life than many billlions experience now due to the horrible selfishness of most of the “elites” (they are not elite anything in my opinion).
“A new statistical analysis shows the world population could reach nearly 11 billion by the end of the century, ”
Thus proving the old adage; there are lies, damn lies, and there’s statistics.
Only if humanity starts breeding again. In most places the birth rates have fallen way below 2.5 children per couple for a stable population. IE, In china it’s 1 child per couple. so in a generations time they will have a huge elderly problem, with each child having to support 2 elderly people, instead of 1 per 1. Only in parts of central Africa are they still increasing in population numbers, everywhere else population numbers are falling. It won’t really be noticeable until another 40 to 50 years.