Hurricane Joaquin Tens Of Millions Of Americans Now In Path Of Floods & Potential Devastation - this weekend (cleveland prepare

WE REMAIN ON RECORD TO SAY UNLESS DRASTIC CHANGES OCCUR IN TODAY’S COMPUTER MODELS, THE MARYLAND AND THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC REGION COULD EXPERIENCE IMPACTS THAT EXCEED ISABEL IN 2003, IRENE IN 2011, SANDY AND HAZEL IN 1954.

• 5 PM NHC Advisory confirms the worst case scenario for the Chesapeake is now a strong possibility, with a Category 1-2 / 85-100 mph hurricane entering the southern Bay. Critical details are posted in the current NHC Storm Discussion

• 2 PM NHC Advisory shows Joaquin becoming a major hurricane by Saturday morning with winds of 110 mph. By Friday night, coastal areas of NC/VA and Ocean City, MD will begin experiencing swells and with tidal rise, followed by gusts to Tropical Storm force on Saturday, and then hurricane force winds by early Sunday.

• Our preliminary landfall projection is between Morehead City, NC and Kill Devil Hills, NC by early Sunday morning as a Category 2/3 with winds of 110 mph.

• Two media reports today provide perspective on the atmospheric and economic factors of Joaquin. From The Washington Post “current weather pattern is notorious for mid-Atlantic hurricane landfalls” and from Fortune magazine: “Joaquin could cost the economy billions of dollars.”

• 5 PM NHC Advisory confirms the worst case scenario for the Chesapeake is now a strong possibility, with a Category 1-2 / 85-100 mph hurricane entering the southern Bay. Critical details are posted in the current NHC Storm Discussion

• 2 PM NHC Advisory shows Joaquin becoming a major hurricane by Saturday morning with winds of 110 mph. By Friday night, coastal areas of NC/VA and Ocean City, MD will begin experiencing swells and with tidal rise, followed by gusts to Tropical Storm force on Saturday, and then hurricane force winds by early Sunday.

• Our preliminary landfall projection is between Morehead City, NC and Kill Devil Hills, NC by early Sunday morning as a Category 2/3 with winds of 110 mph.

• Two media reports today provide perspective on the atmospheric and economic factors of Joaquin. From The Washington Post “current weather pattern is notorious for mid-Atlantic hurricane landfalls” and from Fortune magazine: “Joaquin could cost the economy billions of dollars.”

• Evenly distributed and consistent upper level “outflow” shield of clouds spreading from the center. This indicates a high pressure system is providing ample “exhaust” of rising heat and moisture away from the center via the top of the eyewall.
• “Central Dense Overcast” area of rapid thunderstorm bands forming in the eyewall as it wraps around the core. 
• Stable cloud cover in all four quadrants of the storm and lacking a ragged edge along the western or southern side, thereby preventing dry air entrainment which can disrupt the core. 

• Several days of heavy rain has already produced significant flooding in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. This is not a pre-condition that was observed in any of the 3 previous storms.
• Joaquin is projected to slow down upon approach to the Mid-Atlantic. This is in contrast to the troika of hurricanes since 2003. All three moved through the area at a relatively rapid pace. Isabel picked up forward speed to over 25 mph, Irene at one point was moving 40 mph after grazing Ocean City, and Sandy was averaging 15 mph most of its life cycle. 
• A slowing storm that is strengthening its sustained wind speed is an even worse combination. Once the hurricane begins to weaken in earnest, the wind field will rapidly expand to encompass a very large area of the Northeastern Corridor. It is not unreasonable to estimate that by Sunday afternoon, sustained tropical storm force winds may extend from New York City to Washington, DC and for a hundred miles inland.
• Storm surge projections, while not officially available yet, can be estimated in a general sense by comparison to past storms. If Isabel path traveled 50+ miles to the west of the Cheseapeake, and produced 4 feet of surge in the Bay, it is realistic to infer that an equally strong hurricane traveling up the Bay could produce double the surge due to the geographic magnifying effect of water being forced up inlets and small rivers.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

• AS OF 5 AM, THE NHC ADVISORY INCREASED JOAQUIN TO HURRICANE STATUS, WITH A NOTABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK, BRINGING THE STORM DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE.

• INTERESTS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, INCLUDING VA, MD AND BEACHES ARE RECOMMENDED TO TAKE EARLY ACTION PRIOR TO THE NEXT ROUND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 6-8″ ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.

• WE REMAIN ON RECORD TO SAY UNLESS DRASTIC CHANGES OCCUR IN TODAY’S COMPUTER MODELS, THE MARYLAND AND THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC REGION COULD EXPERIENCE IMPACTS THAT EXCEED ISABEL IN 2003, IRENE IN 2011, SANDY AND HAZEL IN 1954. 

• Rainfall projections in the Mid-Atlantic, for Tuesday night into Thursday, unrelated to Tropical Storm Joaquin, have high probability of at least 3″ with 6″ or more in areas receiving rainfall the longest.

• Additional ocean moisture may confound rainfall forecasts due to an easterly fetch ahead of Joaquin. This would produce another 4-5″ of rain if the system tracks closer to, or makes landfall on, the coast. Significant flooding will become a hazard to travelers during the AM and PM commute Wednesday through Friday. 

• If you have critical outdoor priorities, we strongly advise rushing those to completion, as rainfall will be extremely heavy at times overnight once it begins in your area.  

11:00 AM 9/29 UPDATE BY THE TROPICAL TEAM

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