KGB HANDBOOK FOR OBAMA ("THE PROFESSIONAL" system). PART 1.Mikhail Kryzhanovsky

TOP SECRET CIA FILE

 

MIKHAIL KRYZHANOVSKY . “THE PROFESSIONAL” system

 

This top secret handbook on how to rule America and the world was written in 1996 at CIA order by Mikhail Kryzhanovsky, KGB superspy and CIA/FBI “Filament”.

 

PART I. TOP POLITICAL MANAGEMENT

Chapter 1. Presidential Election ( a mythmaking championship)

 

America is divided . If a Democrat is elected the U.S President, he has to offer his Рepublican opponent the VP Office – that’s the only way we can unite the nation. (My 2012 presidential election message).

1.1 How a President is Nominated and Elected

The Conventions.

The national conventions of both major parties are held during the summer of a presidential election year. Earlier,each party selects delegates by primaries, conventions,committees,etc. At each convention, a temporary chairman is chosen. After a credentials committee seats the delegates, a permanent chairman is elected. The convention then votes n a platform, drawn up by the platform committee. By the third or fourth day, presidential nominations begin. The chairman calls the roll of states alphabetically. A state may place a candidate in nomination or yield to another state. Voting, again alphabeticaly by roll call of states, begins after all nominations have been made and seconded. A simple majority is required in each party, although this may require many ballots.

Finally, the vice-presidential candidate is selected. Although there is no law saying that the candidates must come from different states, it is, practically, necessary for this to be the case. Otherwise, according to the Constitution, electors from that state could vote only of the candidates and would have to cast their other vote for some person of another state. This could result in a presidential candidate’s receiving a majority electoral vote and his or her running mate’s failing to do so.

The Electoral College.

The next step in the process is the nomination of electors in each state, according to its laws. These electors must not be federal office holders. In the November election, the voters cast their votes for electors, not for president. In some states,the ballots include only the names of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates; in others, they include only names of the electors. Nowadays, it’s rare for electors to be split between parties. The last such occurance was in North Carolina in 1968. On four occasions (last was in 2000),the presidential candidate with the largest popular vote failed to obtain an electoral vote majority. Each state has as many electors as it has senators and representatives, plus 3 electoral votes from the District of Columbia as a result of the 23rd Amendment to the Constitution.

On the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, the electors caast their votes in their respective state capitols. Constitutionally they may vote for someone other than the party candidate but usually they do not since they are pledged to one party and its candidate on the ballot. Should the presidential or vice-presidential candidate die between the November election and the December meetings, the electors pledged to vote for him or her could vote for whomever they pleased. However, it seems certain that the national committee would attempt to get an agreement among the state party leaders for a replacement candidate.

The votes of the electors, certified by the states, are sent to Congress, where the president of the Senate opens the certificates and has them counted in the presence of both houses on January 6. The new president is inaugurated at noon January 20.

Should no candidate receive a majority of the electoral vote for president, the House of Representatives chooses a president from among the three highest candidates, voting, not as individuals, but as states, with a majority (now 26) needed to elect. Should no vice-presidential candidate obtain the majority, the Senate, voting as individuals, chooses from the highest two.

 

1.2. Reality Check

The formal requirements for the Presidency, as the Constitution says, are simple: a candidate must be a natural-born US citizen, at least 35 years of age and a US resident for at least 14 years. These requirements meet the technical minimum, but the informal and sometimes less apparent ones are equally important. You must have “political availability,” which means political experience; be attractive (for political activists and general voting public); and project personal characteristics that enable the public to envision you as President. Voters and sponsors must believe that only you deserve to represent them for the next four years.

If you pass the above tests, ask yourself six simple questions:

1. Am I a governor?

2. Am I a Congressman?

3. Am I a Senator?

4. Am I a Cabinet member?

5. Am I a lawyer?

6. Am I a leader?

The last question is the easiest.

Qualities of a leader:

1. Technical/specific skill at some task at hand.

2. Charisma - attractiveness to others and the ability to leverage this esteem to motivate others.

3. Preoccupation with a role - dedication that consumes much of leader’s life – service to a cause.

4. A clear sense of purpose (or mission) clear goals – focus – commitment.

5. Results-orientation – directing very action towards a mission – prioritizing activities to spend time where results most accrue.

6. Cooperation - work well with others.

7. Optimism - very few pessimists become leaders.

8. Rejection of determinism - belief in one’s ability to “make a difference”.

9. Self-knowledge (in non-bureaucratic structures).

10. Self-awareness - the ability to “lead” one’s on self prior to leading to leading other selves similarly.

11. Awareness of environment - the ability to understand the environment they lead in and how they affect and are affected by it.

12. With regards to people and projects, the ability to choose winners – recognizing that, unlike with skills, one cannot teach attitude.

13. Empathy - understanding what others say, rather than listening to how they say things – this could partly sum this quality up as “walking in someone else’s shoes”.

Integrity - the integration of outward actions and inner values.

Leadership styles

1. Vision. outstanding leaders articulate an ideological vision congruent with the deeply-held values of followers, a vision that describes a better future to which the followers have an alleged moral right.

2. Passion and sacrifice. Leaders display a passion for, and have a strong conviction of, what they regard as the moral correctness of their vision. They engage in outstanding or extraordinary behavior and make extraordinary self-sacrifices in the interest of their vision and mission.

3. Confidence, determination and persistence. Outstanding leaders display a high degree of faith in themselves and in the attainment of the vision they articulate. Such leaders need to have a very high degree of self-confidence and moral conviction because their mission usually challenges the status-quo and, therefore, may offend those who have a stake in preserving the established order.

4. Image-building. Leaders must be self-conscious about his own image. He recognizes the desirability of followers perceiving them as competent, credible and trustworthy.

5. Role-modeling. Leader-image-building sets the stage for effective role-modeling because followers identify with the values of role models whom they perceived in positive terms.

6. External representation. Outstanding leaders act as spokespersons for their respective organizations and symbolically represent those organizations to external constituencies.

7. Expectations of and confidence in followers. Outstanding leaders communicate expectations of high performance from their followers and strong confidence in their followers’ ability to meet such expectations.

8. Selective motive-arousal. Outstanding leaders selectively arouse those motives of followers that the leaders see as special relevance to the successful accomplishment of the vision and mission.

9. Frame alignment. To persuade followers to accept and implement change , outstanding leaders engage in “frame alignment”. This refers to the linkage of individual and leader interpretive orientations such that some set of followers ‘s interests, values and beliefs, as well as the leader’s activities, goals and ideology, becomes congruent and complementary.

10. Inspirational communication. Outstanding leaders often, but not always, communicate their message in an inspirational manner using vivid stories, slogans, symbols and ceremonies.

A leader can have one or more visions of the future to aid him to move a nation successfully towards this goal. A vision, for effectiveness, should allegedly :

- appear as a simple, yet vibrant, image in the mind of the leader

- describe a future state, credible and preferable to the present state

- act as a bridge between the current state and a future optimum state

- appear desirable enough to energize followers

- succeed in speaking to followers at an emotional or spiritual level

For leadership to occur, leaders must not just see the vision themselves, they must have the ability to get others to see it also. You can use techniques like metaphors, symbolic actions, leading by example, incentives and penalties.

Distinctions between managers and leaders:

Managers administer, leaders innovate.

Managers as how and when, leaders ask what and why.

Managers focus on systems, leaders focus on people.

Managers do things right, leaders do the right things.

Managers maintain, leaders develop.

Managers rely on control, leaders inspire trust.

Managers have a short-term perspective, leaders have a long-term perspective,

Managers accept the status-quo, leaders challenge the status-quo.

Managers have an eye on the bottom-line, leaders have an eye on the horizon

Managers imitate, leaders originate.

Managers emulate the classic good soldier, leaders are their own person.

Managers copy, leaders show originality.

 

Seventeen US Presidents previously served as Governors: Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, William Harrison, John Tyler, James Polk, Andrew Johnson, Rutherford Hayes, Grover Cleveland, William McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, William Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

Nineteen US Presidents were Congressmen: James Madison, John Adams, Andrew Jackson, William Harrison, John Tyler, James Polk, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Johnson, Rutherford Hayes, James Garfield, William McKinley, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, George Bush.

Fifteen US Presidents were Senators: James Monroe, John Adams, Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, William Harrison, John Tyler, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Benjamin Harrison, Warren Harding, Harry Truman, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon.

Six were Secretaries of State — Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Adams, Martin Van Buren, James Buchanan.

Two were Secretaries of War — Ulysses S. Grant and William Taft.

One was a Secretary of Commerce — Herbert Hoover.

And a full twenty-six US Presidents were lawyers: John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Adams, Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, John Tyler, James Polk, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Abraham Lincoln, Rutherford Hayes, James Garfield, Chester Arthur, Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William Howard Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Bill Clinton.

However, without wishing to dampen your enthusiasm, I must add that 8 Governors, 7 US Senators, 9 US Congressmen, 11 Mayors, 17 State Legislators and 11 judges have been violently attacked by 2005.

1.3 The Bilderberg Group

The Bilderberg Group is an annual invitation-only conference of around 100 guests, most of whom are usually influential politicians and big business. The title comes from the location of its first official meeting in 1954 in the Bilderberg Hotel, Arnhem, Netherlands. Its main office is now in Leiden, South Holland, the group’s current Chairman is Etienne Davignon, a former Vice President of the European Commission. The original intention of the group was to further the understanding between Western Europe and North America through informal and closed for media and public meetings between powerful individuals. Of course, that’s not what they are doing. If you look through the guests’ lists, you can find some very popular names like David Rockefeller, Donald Rumsfeld and George Soros. Lists differ each year, but there’s one name that remains there for years - Henry Kissinger, a former Secretary of State, who rules the Bilderberg Group and rules the world. Bill Clinton, the Arkansas Governor and 1992 presidential nominee went to Baden-Baden and attended the Conference on June 6 1991.

 

1.4 Democrat or Republican - Choosing Sides

The next step is to decide whether you want to be cast as a liberal (Democrat) or conservative (Republican). If you don’t take a definite side, you will be labeled as a moderate liberal-conservative.

You are a Democrat if you:

1. Embrace national government resolutions to public problems.

2. Believe that the national government should intervene in the economy to ensure its health, to support social welfare problems to assist the disadvantaged, and to be tolerant of social change.

3. Identify yourself with pro-women’s rights position, pro-civil rights policies, and opposition to increased defense spending.

4. Increase taxes.

5. Negotiate first and take military action only if sanctioned by the UN.

6. Block drilling for oil in Alaska.

7. Sign the Kyoto Treaty.

8. Protect the rights of the accused first and foremost.

9. Allow doctor-assisted suicide.

10. Scrap the missile defense program.

11. Increase age of initial retirement eligibility (e.g. 68 or 70); increase salary limits subject to tax.

12. Propose 100% government-controlled reform.

13. Maintain separation of church and state; stop faith-based government initiatives.

You are a Republican if you:

1. State that the national government has grown too large.

2. Insist the private sector needs less interference from the government, that social welfare programs should be limited and state and local governments should be able to make their own decisions, and that the nation’s defense should be strengthened

3. Are not tolerant of gay rights laws.

4. Cut taxes.

5. Work with the UN but take unilateral pre-emptive action to show the United States is not under anyone’s thumb.

6. Pursue this and other domestic oil sources.

7. Don’t sign environmental treaties.

8. Provide maximum punishment and protect the rights of the victim first and foremost.

9. Argue against any kind of suicide.

10. Boost international military programs.

11. Privatize; i.e. oblige citizens to handle their own retirement money and allow stock investments.

12. De-regulate health care and introduce free market health care.

13. Introduce more religion in schools and public ceremonies; promote faith-based government initiatives.

 

1.5 Get Ready

Before you make a decision to run for President, you must determine for yourself if you can handle the Oval Office: Are you willing to accept such a huge responsibility and put the rest of your life on hold ? Are you skilled in dealing with big groups of people ? Can you motivate the nation to action ? And think about your biography, which is, of course, not perfect.

Then you must:

1. Decide how are you going to impress party leaders.

2. Make intensive preliminary polling to determine your chances.

3. Poll big demographic groups as well as smaller groups of people from selected demographic groups.

4. Determine the rationale for your candidacy. What is your political record?

5. Delay announcing your candidacy until late in the year before the election to minimize expenditures and risk, avoid legal spending limits, avoid voter fatigue, avoid getting ensnarled in unnecessary controversies and contradictions.

6. Carefully study applicable election laws before you start fundraising and spending.

7. Write your campaign plan (strategic objective, tactical targets, key message, target audiences, methods of delivery, timing, your progress evaluation — polls).

8. Learn the political and economic issues and develop your campaign message.

9. Prepare the “speech” and the “book” (the “speech” is the standard speech that you deliver and it should answer the most important question — why are you running for President; the “book” contains the message and all possible questions on your program.

10. Take a benchmark poll — it will provide the road map for your campaign.

11. Establish your strategy and message

12. Study the results, polls and “successful” areas of previous election.

13. Establish a perfect graphic look (image).

14. Develop a fundraising plan, put the fundraising team in place and start asking for money. No money — no campaign.

15. Create a personal contacts pyramid (priority and general contacts) because personal popularity is your starting point.

16. Set up offices.

17. Get professional candidate training.

18. Determine the focus of your presidential policy (taxes, crime, education, health, social security, national security).

1.6 Working with the Staff

Basic campaign staffers include:

1) campaign managers — they plan the campaign, organize and recruit the staff, supervise daily campaign operations, make priority contacts with key special groups big business and big media, correct the strategy and make quick decisions. It has to be someone you trust completely.

2) campaign consultants-specialists in both direct (personal and public meetings) and indirect (media, advertising) campaigning

3) strategists

4) analysts

5) issues researchers

6) speechwriters

7) lawyer (interprets election and campaign reporting laws)

8) personal assistants (work on issues in foreign and domestic policy in cooperation with the whole team).

9) fundraisers (plan and execute fundraising events — dinners, parties, auctions, direct appeals through telephone and letters, receptions, computerized fundraising). Big business has to be approached by rich fundraiser only.

10) scheduler (determines events and locations — TV and radio talk shows, news — conferences, meetings with students and professors at college campuses and with professionals at their associations’ annual meetings, special events and fundraisers especially with ethnic leaders in big cities, as well as festivals and big shows where celebrities demonstrate their support, large extravaganzas, meetings at civic clubs, farm warehouse auctions and special auctions, local civic events. Also, scheduler makes arrangements with local media before your visit and sends media the copies of your speech; insures that good crowd will attend the event and takes care of transportation arrangements). The purpose of the campaign planning and strategic scheduling is to draw press attention to the candidate for transmission to the voting public. That’s natural — the candidate who has enough media attention has much better chances of recruiting public acceptance and raising campaign funds.

During the “invisible primary” which is the nomination, campaign you have to make visits to party organizations especially in pivotal states, such as the above mentioned Iowa and New Hampshire where you have to make as many handshaking and personal contacts as possible. Key staffers must travel with you.

1.7 Fundraising

You are the #1 fundraiser yourself. You must have substantial financial support to compete. .

You must have an overall plan which outlines expenditures month by month. It is imperative to have even more money on hand at the end of the campaign for an advertising blitz when the voters are most attentive and the field of candidates has been winnowed out. Half of a campaign funds go to media.

Failing to do well in early caucus and primary contests means more than losing delegates — it means that contributions stop.

Your speeches have to be a fun, and match the meal and drinks — don’t be heavy and too political. Actually, you have to run two campaigns (a political campaign and a fund-raising one) and you must win both; if you raise less money than your opponent, you lose, because you don’t have enough money to inform, influence, and motivate your voters. If you are a Senator or a Congressman, you already have an advantage in money (free postage on mail sent to your constituents, automatic media coverage) and you can use your congressional staff to assist your campaign. Besides, you are interviewed by reporters for free as an elected official. You can also ask your political party for a contribution to your campaign. Party money can be given in two ways — as a “direct” contribution or as a “coordinated” expenditure. Direct contributions are funds given by the party to candidates to do with as they please. Coordinated expenditures are made for such services as polling and TV advertising, but the party has a say how the money is spent.

Then you have to ask PACs (political action committees) to fund your campaign, too. PACs are special-interest groups which consist of people who pool their money in order to contribute it to candidates or political party committees who share their political, social, religious or economic views. PACs include corporations, trade unions, professional associations and groups composed of political conservatives or liberals, or people who share the same ideological views on women’s rights, gun control, the environment, civil rights, etc. Remember the “women factor”: there are more women than men in our country, women are more likely to be registered to vote, and among registered voters women are more likely to vote. An additional source of money is “soft money” contributions. “Soft money” is supposed to be used for the party-building activities, but often ends up supporting the campaigns of individual candidates.

The key rules in fundraising are:

- find some “fat cats,” quick

- get fundraisers with lots of rich friends

- get money from those who usually contribute

- go to new York, Florida, California, Texas

And the most important strategy is to raise big money for yourself and prevent big money from being spent against you. Early fundraising is crucial to a campaign because of the high costs organization and the need to demonstrate viability. The best states for fundraising are California, New York, Florida, Texas, which supply half of all campaign donations. Go right ahead and raise money in New York and spend in Iowa and New Hampshire.

To finish well in pre-nomination popularity contests (“straw polls”) you have to appear daily in TV ads, and prime-time news coverage — after the primaries media “label” winners and losers and that affects voters and contributors a lot. Media, especially the most influential “the New York Times” and “Washington Post” (their publications influence decisions on which news stories will be carried on TV channels), have to take you as a very serious contender.

1. 8 Geography

Due to the winner-take-all electoral college system, in which the leading vote-getter in a state wins all of that state’s electoral votes, you MUST win as many large states as possible rather than build up strength in states where you are weak. You have to win a majority (270 of the 538 electoral votes) and for that, concentrate on visits to the most populous states — California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Georgia 54+33+32+25+23+22+21+18+15+14+13 = 270).

Work closely with your party activists and supporters among Senators, Representatives, Governors, Mayors, ethnic and religious groups leaders, big business, celebrities, unions leaders. Determine the states in which you are the strongest and then build you campaign on that basis. Republicans have usually done well in recent years in the Midwest, West and South (Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma). Democrats win in the Northeast industrial base, Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Coast. New York City is a very important factor because the most active, influential and rich people live there.

1.9 The Press

The press officer (contacts media, takes care of newspapers, radio and TV ads) — the person who markets you — is the boss of advance team that takes care in each state of a total exclusively positive press coverage. To my mind, the best choice for this position is a former journalist with good wide connections to media. He prepares press releases and press kits and schedules interviews and press conferences with the positive vision and attitude reporters (press or media kits contain your photos, a brief biography, campaign position papers, printed brochures and names of contacts for additional information).

The technique in good paid advertising is to go with those ideas, arguments, thoughts, themes and believes in which people are already inclined to believe or ready to accept. There’s no difference between commercial and political advertising — you just substitute a car or shampoo for a human being. Modern presidential campaigns center on “media events” — staged public appearances, during which reporters can talk with you and take pictures (if you have too much money, you can organize media wave — a very large amount of political advertising on TV). Then, the “walking tours” must be scheduled when you, followed by reporters, photographers and TV crews visit potential supporters.

Simultaneously your aide sets up press conferences, selects interviews, and background briefings. You have to talk to press 24/7 and everywhere on the campaign bus, train or plain, hotel, etc. A good thing is — you get free media coverage and people trust it more than paid coverage, like TV and radio commercials. You are most likely to win if you obey these rules:

- if you can manipulate media — you manipulate the nation (sorry, it’s harder to manipulate free coverage).

- the media makes the election, not the voters

- a presidential campaign does not allow for privacy

- newspapers put emphasis on issues, TV on image, style and ability to communicate.

- never lie to reporters; they will make sure it backfires on you sooner or later.

- if an influential newspaper, radio or TV station endorses you, you have their supporters, readers, listeners and viewers.

- people remember much better what they see, not what they read; if they don’t see you on TV, you don’t exist.

- TV talks to 98% of Americans and takes your message — and other messages about, or against, you — immediately, straight to the nation.

- TV, not your political party, is the #1 channel of communication between you and the public

- your political party is nothing but a service center and a money machine. Parties divide the nation while your message has to be one of unity.

- take it seriously if The New York Times takes your opponent seriously.

- it’s important to know what your opponent is saying to reporters privately, “not for attribution.”

- if you live in heavily populated state, like New York, California or Texas, you start the presidential election campaign with much better coverage.

- never fight the media like the Nixon administration did — they kept a list of Nixon’s critics (famous reporters), so they could be targeted for harassment, accused of income tax evasion, etc. What happened then? The reporters felt like heroes, Nobel Prize winners. Better target them for buttering up, and feed them lots of stories with a spin in your favor, instead.

1.10 Polls

Pollsters works through newspapers, Internet, telephone surveys, person-to-person surveys, mailed questionnaire to selected voters. They provide voters‘ behavior research and analyze past election data. They tell to you how well-known you are, how well you perform, what are the voters’ preferences. You should poll voters in each state in proportion to that state’s share of the national vote. (You must have at least one polling company on payroll.) Polling is of extreme importance in presidential campaign because it’s the tool to correct your strategy, determine “positive” local areas and supportive voters and work with them, it tests the nation’s attitude to your personality and your issues and that means you can calibrate your message and calculate your success. The most important thing about polls is that they play indicator and identify support or hostility. And the golden rule here is: you have to ask the right question if you want to get a useful answer.

At the same time polling is one of the most expensive elements of a modern campaign because now you have to receive information on too many groups and issues, including groups with specific economic, ethnic, religious, geographic, educational, occupational and residential characteristics and how those characteristics affect attitudes about a wide range of policy issues.

Polls also help you:

- to decide whether to run or not

- improve your recognition and image

- target opposition’s weakness

- formulate media ads

Your pollster has to pinpoint blocks of voters (swing districts) who are undecided and who might be persuaded to vote for you. Experience shows that 40% of public attention go to social problems, 40% — to economy and 20% — to international matters, but if the United States is at war, the situation is different and national security turns into a top priority for everyone. And watch out for campaign spies — keep polls analysis and media plan secret.

Practical polls

“Benchmark” - surveys of the whole nation which provide basic information about your chances and the nation’s political preferences (it’s your “presidential decision maker”).

“Follow-up” - surveys are used to gather more data about particular concerns raised in initial benchmark surveys. They are conducted state by state and are used in planning campaign strategy.

“Panel” - surveys are used to refine strategy further by re-interviewing previous respondents to determine opinion shifts on specific issues within various demographic categories. They are supplemented by continuous “tracking polls” that measure fluctuations in general voter support for the candidate across time.

“Special group” - used to poll the debate results. Selected groups of voters watch candidate debates and register their “positive “ or “negative” feelings toward the candidate’s specific statements or actions. After that analysts tabulate and analyze the reactions of the whole groups.

1.11 Other Critical Personnel

“Image makers” - political consultants who sell your public image as a clear, simple, portrait-like characterization, acceptable to all groups.

“Hit men” - campaign consultants who are experts on negative advertising, designed to “kill” your opponents.

“Field staff” (in target cities mostly). The most important person at any local office is the coordinator — he establishes organization and contacts influential people and political activists. Coordinators must be appointed to each special interests group (women, minorities, unions, college students, public interest activists, the professionals)

“Local volunteers” are needed to work in the offices and the streets. Your family has to take an active part in your campaign, too. Your wife and kids are your visual image makers

“Running Mate.” Your running mate belongs to your staff too — it has to be your best choice. This person should be compatible with you in age, intellect, political views, and be of approximately the same height. He is selected to balance the national ticket in terms of geography, religion, ideology, government experience and political style. You have to appeal to the broad electorate, while your running mate appeals to specific groups. He serves to reinforce — or break down — the electorate’s attitudes toward you. If you have little domestic or foreign policy, or Washington experience, a running mate with that experience can reassure voters. And he has to give voters the impression your policy will be continued unchanged in case you die during your presidency or in case he is elected the US President himself after your two terms in the Office.

1.12 Campaign Tips

Never behave as if you think you are God’s gift to the nation.

Be presidential - look calm, sincere, knowledgeable, fatherly and open.

Be electable - prove to the nation that you are the best choice.

No one has ever been elected the US President without winning the New Hampshire primary.

Primaries direct financial backers to a promising candidate.

Voters judge you by your friends — appear with popular politicians, big business, labor and interest groups leaders, and show business celebrities. Advertize your meetings with Congress members and world leaders (go abroad if you have a chance to meet a world leader).

The most important event in the election process is the National Convention, not only because the eventual finalist candidate is actually nominated but because after that the campaign’s audience increases (more than twice as many people vote in general elections as participate in the nomination process). You have to decide how to win the support of these new voters as well as to appeal to people who identify with the other party and partisans who backed losing candidates for the nomination.

1.13 Choosing a Strategy

Any strategy is good if it helps you to win support of a majority of people chosen by the state parties to be delegates to the national convention. Your choice of a strategy depends on your current position:

A. If you are an incumbent, you have to stress that the American people’s life improved a lot during your first term. You can count on successful start because you are guaranteed to be known actually to every American, and the Oval Office lends you credibility and respect. It’s of vital importance to have economic accomplishments — in such a case well-timed announcements of government statistics on the economy or of plans for domestic initiatives can also help you. Listen, I didn’t tell you this, but you have to manipulate (stimulate) the economy during the election year with tax cuts that can help reduce unemployment, and with social programs financing.

Of course, you’ll have to pay for it, but that will happen after you are re-elected. And a good thing is — an improved economy erases voters’ bad memories of past years. Then, try to avoid too aggressive campaigning — it’s a sign of weakness. Make official appearances in carefully controlled settings. Influence media coverage with official presidential actions and use “pork barrel” politics to appeal to specific constituents. You can also benefit from the nation’s reluctance to reject a tested national leader for an unknown newcomer. And if you start important foreign policy initiatives, it will guarantee you continued media coverage.

If you have poor chances to be re-elected, you can play the “national security” card:

- find a US “enemy”

- start a media psychosis (see propaganda tricks and brainwashing )

- concentrate power (special services) to establish a total legal control on the nation

- provoke an international conflict, restricted or full-scale war

- send a message: “If you are against the President, you are against America!”

B. If you are a challenger you have to convince the public they don’t live better than they did 4 years ago, or, if the economy is OK, point out mistakes that were made in the foreign policy. Or make up some social issue that will get passions inflamed and hijack the headlines.

The job is tough if you challenge a President who is popular — first, you have to break down his positive image; second, you have to portray yourself as a much better replacement. You have no choice but to start with the “outsider” strategy — you present a “fresh face” to voters weary of the current political situation (in such a case you have to attack administration in a very aggressive manner). Plus, you must give quick response to your opponent’s charges (get advance copies of his speeches through friends in the media).

Then, show yourself as a smart and diplomatic person using a special “triangular” strategy, when you, like majority of the voters, place yourself between liberal and conservative positions. Evaluate situation — you may need “early knockout,” when front-runners hope to use their early strength in polls, fundraising and endorsements into decisive primary victories at the beginning of the primary season. The hope is that the candidate will build such an impressive early lead that the competition quickly drops out. And a “shift” is the most popular thing with challengers — if the President is good in national security, they point out to the problems in economy, if he’s good on the economy, they point out to the problems in national security — very simple. (Watch his mistakes anyway — you can benefit from them. Bill Clinton would never have run for President in 1992 if someone from the Bush White House hadn’t called him in 1990 and asked him not to run. That phone call was one of the dummest political moves of the 20th century, because it convinced Clinton that they thought he had a good chance if he did run for Office.)

Be simple, identify with “ordinary people” and no matter what tell the voters your parents or your grandparents “were like them — regular people, not millionaires.” You can even say “Feb-uary” and “nuc-ular,” and see if they forget you were educated at Yale.

Finally, you must know some very popular and efficient dirty tricks, like “negative campaigning” or “black PR.” To make a long story short: no matter what your opponent says or what decent people think about negative campaigning — “black PR” works! Use it to turn a rumor or a fact into a serious political scandal; respond to and neutralize the opponent’s attacks (using “black PR”) fast, before they are broadcasted or published.

It works best through intermediates (persons and organizations not connected directly to your campaign). You must have a very detailed file on your opponent (negative research) and then start spreading negative and all kinds of compromising data from his personal and political life. If he is or was elected official (Senator, Governor, Mayor), you can point out his mistakes and actions which were not popular. People must know in detail (get your staff to read a few books) the negative sides of his life, program and terrible consequences of his election. Remember also that a rumor repeated twice turns into a fact, especially if you start a “whispering campaign” in Congress.

A “negative ID” trick is my favorite: you identify your opponent with a totally unacceptable (for the voters) viewpoint, like: “There are those who want to stop the war on international terror and you know who they are!”

1.14 Debates

Debates are very important because they offer the only all-national event at which candidates can be judged. You and your opponent will be under huge stress as you both must operate simultaneously at the focus of attention of each other and of all elements of electorate. Debates are, actually, head-to-head confrontations with two main aspects: the pre-debate negotiations over whether there will be a debate, and the post-debate analysis of who did how well. The debates offer nothing new for the public and the basic strategy is to hope your opponent will make a mistake (President Ford made one in 1976, saying that: “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.” People just didn’t want to hear it. Richard Nixon was very wrong in 1960 trying to debate on substance, while his opponent, John F. Kennedy, concentrated on style and on presenting the correct presidential image).

While preparing for the winning debates you must:

- have a detailed file on your opponent and study all his speeches and statements; ask yourself: “What does he have that I don’t have?”

- train to answer all possible questions

- be ready to demonstrate deep knowledge of issues and your presidential bearing to a nationwide audience

- repeat your message but keep in mind that image is more important than ideas while you debate — people want to see your good looks, good clothes and nice smile.

And here are the debating “Don’ts”:

Don’t attack first — that’s a sign of weakness.

Don’t be over-polite — a little showmanship appeals to voters.

Don’t be too aggressive — it will ruin your image as a future President.

Don’t answer the questions too fast — that implies you are not thinking.

Don’t rush, no negative emotions, no sudden gestures (extra gestures mean that you are not surewhat you are saying is correct).

Don’t touch anything while you talk.

Don’t disappoint people — speak in a clear and simple way.

You restrict your influence if you sit.

Follow the rules :

Avoid anxiety reactions — speech errors, moistening of lips, perspiring, shifting eye movements, body jerks. Gesturing with fingers apart communicates weakness, while gesturing with fingers tightly together communicates power.

Look at your opponent with intense concentration — it gives the attitude of command and comfort of the situation. .

Answer a question you want to answer, no matter what question was asked.

If you give better answers, you are the better candidate.

Immediately after the debates your press officer has to give the media his biased impression and explain why you won the debates. Your pollster has to watch the polls results.

1.14 Speaking in Public

 

First things first - you have to know your own nation well. Here is a popular classification of American voters:

 

1. Entrepreneurs. Traditional Republicans driven by free enterprise economic concerns.

2. Moralists. Less affluent populist Republicans driven by moral issues, such as abortion.

3. New Dealers. Older traditional Democrats who are pro-government but socially conservative.

4. Sixties Democrats. Mainstream Democrats highly tolerant of varying lifestyles with strong beliefs in social justice.

5. Partisan poor. Low-income, mainly black, who believe in the Democratic Party as a vehicle for social change.

6. Passive poor. The older God-and-Country Democrats who have a strong faith in America and an uncritical attitude toward its institutions but favor social spending.

7. By-standers. Those who are mainly young, white and poorly educated and who show almost no interest in politics.

8. Upbeats. Young, optimistic moderates who lean toward the Republicans.

9. Disaffected. Middle-aged, pessimistic working class who, even though they have Democratic roots, lean toward the Republicans.

10. Seculars. Affluent and highly educated but lacking religious convictions; committed to personal freedom and peace.

11. Followers. Poor, young, uninformed blue-collar workers with little religious commitment and limited interest in politics.

“Golden” rules

Your aides have to determine the “theme of the day” and brief you about the day’s events and issues. To get elected you must promise economic growth with low inflation and balanced budget no matter how grave the economic situation is.

Don’t be too specific on issues and tell people they elect their way, not a candidate.

Cite the Bible.

Don’t look too intellectual.

State repeatedly that you’re not going to divide the nation into supporters and enemies, Democrats and Republicans, “my voters and other voters” — be a leader to all. (But first, to win the nomination you must appeal to the more liberal sections of your party if you are Democrat, and to more conservative sections if you belong to Republicans).

Don’t talk much; transform your thoughts into examples and slogans.

Never say you want power, even if you want to save the nation in crisis.

Never talk down on big business. Promise federal financing, especially in economic downturns.

Remember: voters are extremely sensitive to tax-cut proposals and which social segment would benefit from them. The middle class brings you victory, so promise tax cuts for these people, with tax increases for the wealthy and high unemployment rates.

Even if the economy is OK, point out the signs of coming crisis and promise to change the situation fast. Keep talking about problems, though it’s hard to win if the incumbent President runs for re-election with balanced budget and economic growth.

You can be liberal on domestic issues, but you have to be conservative on national security (defense and foreign affairs).

What to talk about where

Iowa, New Hampshire - farm problems, energy costs, trade issues

Northern “rustbelt” states - industrial concerns

Southern states - defense and social issues

New York State - unemployment

 

Use these tactics:

1.“Join the crowd” — this reinforces people’s natural desire to be on the winning side and it is used to convince the audience that your program is an expression of the nation’s desire for change, and it is in their best interest to join;

2. “Provoked disapproval” — persuade a target audience to disapprove your opponent’s message by suggesting that the message is popular with groups hated, feared or held in contempt by the target audience;

3. “Iinevitable victory” — you invite those who did not join majority;

4. “Neuro-linguistic programming” — you will be elected if you can do this better than your opponent and program the whole nation for a positive reaction. People always try to avoid anything and anybody unpleasant; and people are always looking for pleasant things and other pleasant people, somebody they want to meet again and again or at least see on TV. Everybody wants to be a winner; and to be a winner brings pleasure and self respect. Just convey this sense to the nation:

“Vote for me and you win!” or

“Vote for me or you lose!”

“The choice is yours!”

Now, you have to be the first to install this program in the voters’ minds and the other candidate has no chance.

Chapter 2. The White House Management.

The White House costs us $ 1 billion a year.

The US President is paid $400,000 a year. He is the only person in the White House and in Washington, DC who deserves every penny of his salary.

With the election you are transformed into the most powerful person in the world, leader of America, Head of State, Head of the Executive Branch, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and Chief Diplomat. It’s a tough job. It’s an unimaginable responsibility. Let us look step by step through the problems, crises, mistakes to success and professional presidential style. If you were a Governor or a Senator before, stop acting like Governor or Senator and become President. Unfortunately, most Presidents can’t get rid of their previous working and personal style, act slow and bring chaos to the White House, especially during their first term (which could be the last). I’m sure you’ll be different. Relax, be pleasant, and never, even for a second, think about yourself as a historic figure. From now on you live in a goldfish bowl — stared at, studied and investigated.

2.1 Iron-Clad Rules for the President

Be strong.

Be attractive.

Be logical

2.2 Presidential Calendar

Be strong.

Be attractive.

Be logical

Time is your #1 value — learn how to run it properly through your White House staff. Divide your life in the White House into two 4-year-long terms and then divide your term into cycles. All you have to do during your first term is to take care of the second one — that’s your agenda. The second term’s agenda is to set your place in the world’s history.

First year. You have enough public support to start big initiatives.

Presidents have a “honeymoon,” some period after the inauguration, up to 3 months, when the opposition party refrains from attacks and Congress is inclined to support you too. This is a nice time for unrealistic public expectations, so set a national agenda right away and declare strong initiative on tax and budget issues.

Attention: once the first 100 days are gone (productive opening period), the media hounds will start baying. Once 180 days are past — Congress starts biting! President Kennedy said once: “I made two mistakes during my first year. One was Cuba. The other one was letting it be known that I read as much as I do.”

Second year. Develop your initiatives. It’s a time when inevitable public disappointment comes after high expectations. Your proposals inevitably antagonize certain interest groups and your popularity declines, because some groups develop into consistent winners and others — into consistent losers. You have to help your party with mid-term elections when the entire House and one-third of the Senate is up for re-election — it’s the best indicator of the nation’s approval or disapproval of your presidency. (But if you are not popular at the time, don’t show up in public often and don’t “help” certain candidates. George W. Bush ignored this rule and Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 2006). If you fail to do what you plan in the first two years, better get it done fast!

Third year. Go, go public preparing your re-election. Presidents often lose voters during this period.

Fourth year. All-politics year. Try to achieve some important international agreement (a treaty) for the historic record. Win re-election.

Divide each year into 2 cycles:

1st cycle — late autumn and early winter prepare State of the Union Address to Congress, new legislation and budget recommendations.

2nd cycle — in late winter and spring promote these proposals and prepare for annual “Big Eight” summit.

Then, thirteen appropriations bills must be passed each year to keep the federal government operating:

1. Agriculture, rural development and related agencies.

2. Commerce, Justice and the judiciary, State and related agencies.

3. Defense.

4. District of Columbia.

5. Energy and water development.

6. Foreign assistance and related programs.

7. Interior and related agencies.

8. Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education.

9. Legislative branch for Congress’s own operations.

10. Military construction.

11. Transportation and related agencies.

12. Treasury, Postal Service and general government agencies.

13. Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development, and independent agencies

In the nine months leading up to the October 1 start of the federal government fiscal year, you and Congress must meet several deadlines to ensure that the money needed to operate the government will be available when the fiscal year begins:

- the first Monday in February, you have to submit budget requests.

- April 15 is the target date for the House and Senate to agree on a budget resolution setting guidelines for spending and taxes.

- on May 15, House Appropriations Committee and subcommittees begin acting on spending bills

- during the summer and early fall, House-State conferences resolve differences between their versions of the appropriations bills

- October 1 is the drop-dead date for you to sign appropriations bills into law

There are also several important activities that somehow were left out of the Constitution’s description of the President’s functions. As Head of State you represent the American people on ceremonial occasions. You have to:

- light the national Christmas tree

- preside over the Easter egg roll on the White House lawn

- hold receptions to honor Americans who have won international prizes, such as the Nobel Prize

- greet astronauts returning after their missions

- give out the Presidential Medal of Freedom

- give recognition to charities like American Cancer society

- attend funerals of foreign Heads of State (you can send Vice President, Secretary of State or one of the former US Presidents in some cases)

- honor the war dead by laying wreaths at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on Memorial Day and veterans Day

- issue proclamations each year celebrating national holidays such as Thanksgiving Day and Independence Day

You can use ceremonial occasions to campaign for your reelection, make policy proposals, create an atmosphere of confidence and promote patriotism and national pride. Presidents who neglect ceremonial duties may find they have more time to develop policy and actually run the government, but they are sacrificing a tool of leadership that can be used not only to inspire the nation to greater accomplishments, but also to improve their own popularity. You can also manipulate your political calendar for electoral advantage. It’s OK if your popularity declines after the first year in the Office. Most important is year number 3, which starts the reelection campaign.

Divide your week into days.

Monday and Tuesday — decide plans and priorities for the week (with senior White House staff, Secretaries and Congress leaders). Limit those who can see you every morning to the top three — Chief of Staff, National Security Adviser and your scheduler.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday — guide execution and make decisions. Don’t forget about your weekly radio address.

Divide your day into hours and minutes.

General rule is 30% of your weekly hours go to senior White House staff, 10% — to Cabinet, 5% — to Congress members, 5% — to foreign leaders.

No matter what, even if it’s a war time, sleep one hour during the day to give your brain a break, and finish your day at 6 P.M. After 6 P.M. do not read any documents, do not take any phone calls, do not talk to anybody but family members and close friends. Most presidents are manipulated by their aides, overwork themselves and fail to reach the age to which they were expected to live at the time of their election.

And — eat whatever you want, but you must know that the more calories you have to digest, the slower you think.

Have a strategy for the last day of your presidency — maybe you’d like to pardon some convicted criminals, either to soften your image, make some more useful friends - or to make life more difficult for your rivals.

 

　

1. You are a national image (a national ideal based on pseudo-facts). You are supposed to be a symbol of national unity, national continuity and the symbol of federal government. You have to be a religious person and affirm religious values and set a moral example.

Leadership is the first quality Americans look 2.3 “Golden” rulesfor in you - they want a President who is steadfast in his convictions. You are done with elections, but you are not done with your image.

2. The power to control the federal budget is your top prerogative.

3. Whom are you going to be? Make a choice:

- utopist (ideas manipulator)

- manager (Government and Congress manipulator)

- challenger (reformer)

4. Any problem turns into a political one if it threatens your power.

5. Use your legal right to press the nation and illegal ones to press the world to eliminate problems.

4. Once you’re in politics, you are a hostage of your status and you must sacrifice privacy in return for power.

6. Never play alone - you are power as part of a group.

7. All your decisions are risk taking ones (any decision brings a problem). You may ask advice before you make a decision, but don’t listen to anybody afterwards. You are not paid for the quantity of your work but for leadership and ultimate decision making. (If your adviser approaches you with a fresh idea, ask him why isn’t everyone else using it).

8. Correct political mistakes before they became political scandals, but avoid any rush - think three times and check ten times before you sign anything (emergency is a loss of control).

9. No easy matter will come to you as President - if they are easy they should be settled at lower levels. Don’t trust those who work too much and who push you too often (people who try to influence you go to your advisers, because they know you listen to the people close to you).

10. Never blame previous Presidents for the problems they left for you - that’s a sign of weakness.

11. Get rid of a White House tradition to deal with problems only if they “knock at the door.”

Your priorities are:

1. Economic policy: government taxing and spending, regulation and promotion of business, monetary supply, agriculture support.

2. Social policy: income security, housing, health care, education

3. Civil rights and liberties policy: discrimination prevention; voting rights and basic liberties

4. Natural resources & environmental policy: clear air and water, wildlife protection, national parks, public lands, water resources

5. Foreign & national security: new weapons systems, troop levels, military alliances, intelligence activities, foreign aid, foreign trade, treaties, relations with foreign governments, immigration

2.4 The Media

There are two power centers in the United States — TV and Washington, DC. Just as the press needs the White House to carry out its functions as the collector and interpreter of news and information, so the White House needs the press to spread its message. Your popularity depends on the amount of good and bad news about your administration’s policy dispensed by the media. No straight answers! If you rule the media, you rule America.

Press Conference

A press conference is the US President’s conference to proffer news items to the press, and not the press’s conference with the President. Behave like a king and they will take you for a king.

Don’t let reporters provoke you into making any promise or statement unprepared; talk about the “bad” issues before they ask you to; never say “I don’t know” but say: “The problem is under study” instead. “Cool off” reporters by re-asking the question in terms that allow you to answer it more easily.

Evade a question by pleading inability to reply on grounds of national security.

Change the tone and direction of the questioning by calling on a reporter with a reputation for asking “soft” questions. (Better yet, to show off your achievements answer a question that wasn’t asked).

Use press conferences to influence public opinion and to understand public opinion judging by the questions.

Don’t schedule any press conferences during an international crisis — as a rule, they inflame the situation. But you really need press conferences when your polls go down.

Your Press Secretary has to be exceptionally articulate, smart and loyal, because he is your image and echo. He is in charge of the news management and that includes:

a) daily briefings to announce the President’s initiatives and positions, appointments or pending legislation. In such a way the White House, not the media, sets the news agenda for the day (the “story of the day”). Reporters have to buy it because they need pictures. Your Press Secretary may also provide special “backgrounder” briefings for reporters to explain certain initiatives (these briefings may go “on the record,” meaning that the remarks may be quoted and the source identified, “on background,” in which the source can’t be identified, “on deep background” when attribution of any sort is prohibited, and “off record,” in which information given to reporters may not be included in their stories and is mainly provided for their guidance. Briefing sources may range from the President personally to Cabinet members, the White House staff and policy experts.

b) stonewalling - “No comment.”

c) any bad news should be released on late Friday nights when media organizations are minimally staffed and news is likely to draw less public attention over the weekend.

d) staged events:

- exclusive interviews to selective reporters from major news organizations, those who are known to be sympathetic toward the administration

- private interviews to Washington-based foreign correspondents from countries that are scheduled to be visited. In such a way you set the stage for your visit and define your objectives and expectations on your own terms.

e) private contacts with media (the best way to build media support).

f) keeping a “black list” of reporters who don’t report favorably on the President and his policy.

Because of the Press Secretary’s closeness to members of the news media, he is able to pick up public opinion trends and issues. The Office of Communications, that monitors the print and electronic media for stories of interest to the White House, has to bring you a one-page report every day.

You can get as much attention as you want. You are the most public figure in the world and everything you are doing and talking about inside and outside the White House has to be recorded. Every time you leave the White House you have to choose the right place or event, or accept the right invitation and deliver the message which is most important now. You rule the situation if you rule the flow of information, and if you can’t control events use your power to control the flow of information and give the first interpretation of events.

You are the White House boss but not the Washington, DC chief — you need the back up of public opinion for the next four years at least; but you must centralize policy making in the White House no matter what!

2.5 Hiring and firing

The appointment power is an extremely important tool enabling you to gain control of your administration and direct national policy. Numbers first: 1,125 Presidential appointees require Senate confirmation, including 185 Ambassadors, 94 District Attorneys, 94 US Marshals. (The Senate, though, may use its confirmation power as a political bargaining trick and “put on hold” your nominee until you agree to do them a favor — actually, they keep him a political hostage).

Office of Presidential Personnel makes decisions or recommends President’s actions on 5842 jobs. Ten forms must be executed by the candidate, including a White House personal data statement, a waiver permitting the review of past tax returns, FBI questionnaire, a financial disclosure statement for the Office of Government Ethics so that identify possible conflicts of interests.

“Golden” rules

Avoid criminals, drug addicts, alcoholics, homosexuals. All come with a risk of future embarrassments.

Avoid widespread mistake of hiring staff and the Cabinet judging by communication abilities and not by professional skills; remember — efficiency is low if staff consists of old or young people only.

Do not hire your wife, please; or anyone else who cannot be fired.

Look through previous administrations’ lists, talk to chairs of Congress committees, college professors (law, economics, national security), big business (friends, partners, donors). Pressure from your congressional supporters will influence most of your appointments.

Do not hire independent persons, no matter how experienced they are.

Follow the quotas (one black Secretary and one Latino)

Interview key positions candidates in person (Chief of Staff and his Deputies, all Assistants, Secretaries and Deputy Secretaries, federal agencies chiefs, US Ambassadors) and use the following criteria:

- commitment to your philosophy and program

- integrity and personal qualifications

- experience and skills

- no personal agenda

- toughness needed to fight the Washington establishment (Congress + media + interest groups)

Give key positions to your campaign donors and team members who showed to you personal loyalty. No key positions go to another political party members. It’s advisable that you give a Secretary of Defense position to somebody who is expert in weapons systems and defense budgeting.

Find jobs for some defeated Congress members. Please.

Don’t hesitate to hire a personal assistant on any problem .

Talk straight and demand loyalty .

It’s good to take newly appointed Cabinet members and senior White House staff to Camp David for some informal meeting, drinks and the first open discussion on your future policy.

2.6 The White House Staff

Starting with President Franklin Roosevelt, the trend has been for Presidents to act through the Executive Office of the President or the National Security Council rather than through the Cabinet. This has created a situation n which the White House Chief of Staff, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget and the National Security Advisor are more powerful than some Cabinet members.

The Executive Office of the President is headed by the White House Chief of Staff and consists of the immediate staff of the President, as well as multiple levels of support staff reporting to the President, total of 1,800 full-time equivalent employees. Senior staff within the Office have the title “Assistant to the President”, second-level staff have the title “Deputy Assistant to the President” and third-level staff have the title “Special Assistant to the President”.

2.6.1 The White House staff serves to:

- protect your political interests

- act as principal political advisers

- distill information and provide a perspective from which the President can make an informed decision

- direct the implementation of your priorities by the bureaucracy

- process important political and economic information and process ideas coming from Congress, events and crisis situations, executive branch agencies, public opinion, party, interest groups, media and most important — from President and staff (ideas always have to be politically attractive)

- operate effectively inside the White House triangle: the President’s schedule — the flow of papers — the press. The most powerful figures in the White House are senior staff because they provide information for your decisions, evaluate policy proposals by Cabinet Secretaries, control activities of the executive branch, maintain liaison and lobby the Congress, interest groups, party leaders and media and control access (and information) to you — that’s what the Chief of Staff is doing (remember — there is no person # 2).

Here they are:

Chief of Staff to the President

Assistant to the President & Deputy Chief of Staff

Assistants to the President:

National Security

Senior Adviser

National Economic Council

Domestic Policy Council

Press Secretary

Communications

Counsel to the President

Homeland Security

Presidential Personnel

Legislative Affairs

Intergovernmental Affairs

Staff Secretary

Political Affairs

Cabinet Secretary

Public Liaison

Director of Presidential Scheduling

Director of Speechwriting

Chief of Staff to the First Lady

Director of Advance Management, Administration & Oval Office Operations

Executive Agencies:

Director, Office of Administration

Chair, Council of Economic Advisers

Director, Office of Management and Budget

Chief of Staff

The Chief of Staff reviews most of the documents that go to you, gives his advice after intense information processing and consultations with other agencies and then - he’s telling others what President wants.

A lot of people, including Congressmen and Senators, will try to reach you through him.

He has to give good instructions to the Press Secretary on the White House message about current headlines and the President’s plans and actions (the Press Secretary works the same way with VP and First Lady press teams).

He is responsible for your time and has to plan at least two months ahead your effective activity together with Communications, Scheduling and other policy offices’ Directors plus VP and First Lady Chiefs of Staff.

Besides, he has to do “dirty jobs” for the President like firing people or act as a “lighting rod” to draw criticism away from the President.

National Security Adviser

The National Security Adviser controls all the documents concerning national security coming from Defense, State Departments and national security agencies, and coordinates these offices.

His position is not subject to Senate confirmation, which, according to a long-standing Washington tradition, means that he can’t be compelled to testify before the Congress.

He decides what papers the President should see and, what’s more, he gives his comments on any document. (National security is 100% the President’s business, so keep this figure at some distance and don’t let him think of himself as your Number Two - foreign leaders will try to work through him to get to you or to influence you.)

He has to oversee the functioning of the National Security Council (NSC), which is your foreign policy making tool and a “government inside government.” This is something very special and convenient about the NSC - it’s responsible only to you and there’s not much Congress control over its budget. Of course, the National Security Adviser is involved in every meeting between you and any foreign leader and is responsible for the schedule.

The most powerful of executive offices after the National Security Council is the Office of Management and Budget (it’s authorized to make cuts in federal agencies’ budgets, to advise you on national fiscal and economic policies, supervise execution of the government budget, evaluate the performance of federal programs).

　

Who they are

Staffers (and Secretaries) prefer stability and don’t like it if you’re “rocking the boat” - that’s why they often play reform-stoppers.

They don’t like to work hard and prefer to send you on “very important visits” abroad as often as possible.

They try to load you up with an extremely busy schedule and “feed” you hundreds of useless documents, create artificial problems and conflicts to show off their hyper-activity.

They try to be your decision makers and they do influence you because, unlike Secretaries, they have daily contact with you; that’s why you don’t see Cabinet members as your principal aides.

They try to set you up by interpreting your decisions and orders in their own way, as every Adviser is the “American President himself.”

They know you won’t accept “complicated,” “expensive,” “risky” projects and they try to sell you “simple,” “cheap” and “popular” ones only.

Watch your senior staff and how they present ideas. If somebody wants to push his idea or a project, he will give you three options, making two of them unattractive. Naturally you pick the one he presented as least harmful.

2.6.2 “Golden” rules of the White House Staff :

1. Fight for access (influence) to President or to people with direct access (aiming to get a better position if President is re-elected).

2. Isolate government from the President.

3. Influence = relationship with the President.

4. Get a table in the West Wing. You are nobody if you are stuck in the White House basement and see the President by appointment only.

5. Before you send a document to the President, have to look at it and ask yourself if it’s too immoral or too radical.

6. Never say “no” aloud to anybody.

7. Remain anonymous with conflicts.

8. Never bring bad news to the President - let it be some idiot, not you.

9. Never say “That’s impossible,” no matter what the President is asking you to do.

10. Disappear (and find an excuse later) if the President is in a bad mood.

11. Never ague with the President if there’s somebody else present.

12. Learn how the President likes to do business (talking, giving orders, writing the documents and taking notes, managing official and non-official meetings) and his habits (food, drinks, cigarettes, favorite sport, movies, show business stars, writers, politicians; attitude to women) and try to copy him — the President has to feel comfortable with you.

13. Fight anybody who’s trying to do your job to be closer to the President.

14. Avoid taking on risky tasks controlled by the President in person (if necessary, try to “delegate” it to somebody else).

15. Avoid being associated with any failures.

16. Don’t say anything President doesn’t want to hear.

17. Use “Smith’s Principle”: if it can be understood by Congress, it’s not finished yet.

18. Write memorandums not to inform the reader, but to protect the writer.

19. No matter what subject is under discussion, employ the language of sports and war: say “breakthrough” instead of “progress” , never speak of compromise, consider “adopting a fallback position.”

20. Every public appearance in with the President is an investment in your career after the White House.

21. Minimize the number of rivals.

22. Gain independence according to how much the President needs you.

23. Before asking the President for some personal favor, make him believe he’s going to get some (political) profit out of it.

24. Tell the President what he can do and help him try to do it, and never tell him what he shouldn’t do.

25. Avoid giving any personal gifts to the President if you are not Chief of Staff.

Every public appearance in with the President is an investment in your career after the White House.

There is an open power struggle between national security staff members and domestic policy staff and between those who develop new policies and initiatives versus budget staff.

2.6.3 How to Manage the Staff

Adopt a dominant management style:

1. Pyramidal, structured as hierarchy with you at the top, followed by the Chief of Staff and other key assistants — I strongly recommend this one — it insures a clear chain of command and provides precise channels of information going up and directives going down. It permits specialization at the lower levels and control at the top. Besides, those higher up in the system are able to provide you with more accurate information in a timely manner, while filtering out and eliminating unnecessary information. (The problem is — nobody wants to bring you important bad news).

2. Circular, when you are surrounded by advisers, all of whom have approximately equal access to the Oval Office. That usually means too much access and chaos, and overloading you with information — 99% of which should not appear on your table (per JFK).

All your assistants are political assistants and everyone will try to play a policy-maker. But a good thing is – all of them were not elected and are responsible to you only. Thus you can:

- reform your staff freely as there’s not even a word about it in the US Constitution

- interchange key figures if domestic crisis is approaching

- if you don’t agree with the staff on important issues, go to polls for back-up. (The best employee is the one you can blackmail. Besides, a very good “pusher” for your people is their deep understanding that they have to work together to help the President stay in office next term — if the President leaves, everybody leaves)

- use “the carrot and the stick”

- use “pulling by pushing” — give an important job without publicity to those who become too popular

- do as little reading as you can — you have staff for that

- do as little writing as you can — same reason

- involve yourself personally in your staff and Cabinet jobs as little as you can — same reason

- make no minor decisions — same reason

- send back any intelligence or other report if it’s more than one sheet of paper

2.7 The Cabinet

If the bureaucrats are wearing you down, you have the right to fire any Secretary. However, Cabinet members must be approved by Senate, therefore, you have to negotiate with the Senate leaders and party leaders throughout the country. As a result, some positions may go to people you don’t know well and can’t trust. Then if you want to re-organize the Cabinet you have to confront the Congress, because Congress tries to protect the interests of its constituents, who are often the clients of the existing bureaucratic agencies. So, if you plan changes you have to appoint people who share your strategy.

You may also need to offer a position to a group that you need to support in the coming election, or whose help you need; or to help pass legislation (these people will be more loyal to their political benefactors than to you).

Secretaries have disadvantages compared to the staffers as they don’t have easy access to the Oval Office (again, that depends on you). Some of them had little or no contact with you before being appointed. Actually, their task is to win the backing of key interest groups and that’s why you, practically speaking, don’t need Cabinet meetings (if there’s no crisis). If a Cabinet member feels independent (usually, that’s the Secretary of State), don’t fire him – substitute him by the national security adviser or send him abroad on a regular basis .

Six positions have Cabinet-level rank, which allows these individuals to attend Cabinet meetings: Vice President, White House Chief of Staff, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of the National Drug Control Policy, United States Trade Representative

The Cabinet members work hard during a crisis only. They prefer to save their plans and suggestions for private conversations with you, because that is what you need them for and they are competing with other Secretaries for your time, support and for funds. It’s not easy for the President to make government agencies work effectively — first, you have no time, second – they have no competition. Anyway, you must have insiders in all departments, especially in the Justice Department (FBI), CIA and Secret Service firing anybody who’s trying to dig dirt on you.

2.7.1 Secretary of Defense

The Secretary of Defense is a very special and unique position for many reasons. This department is regarded a non-political one, defending the United States no matter what (never let him decide, though, what and where US interests are). Military leaders have a lot of friends in Congress who press the administration to accept military demands. Besides, it’s not easy to manage the Pentagon, as you depend on the military for evaluations of the national military capacities; they decide also what kinds of weapons to buy and build. Half of the federal budget goes to Pentagon, making it a major department and that’s the most frustrating aspect of your management.

You have to find compromise between you, Congress, public opinion, interest groups and defense contractors’ lobbyists.

The defense budget affects diplomacy and international relations, because governments worldwide scrutinize it for clues about US global intentions. For example, increases in defense spending, particularly for items such as naval vessels and aircraft, may signal a White House intention to pursue more aggressive foreign policies, and cuts in defense spending may indicate an effort to scale back on defense commitments.

2.7.2 The Cabinet’s Hidden Structure-

The Cabinet is divided into the inner circle (State, Defense, Treasury, Justice) and outer, less important one (Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security). While inner Cabinet members are selected more on the basis of personal friendship and loyalty, outer Cabinet members are selected more on the basis of geographical, ethnic or political representation and adopt an advocacy position for their Departments.

The inner Cabinet is divided into two groups:

а) national security group (State and Defense Departments).

b) legal-economic group (Justice and Treasury Departments). The Attorney General usually serves as the president’s attorney and this special responsibility leads to close personal contact with the President. The Secretary of Treasury is very important in domestic monetary and fiscal policies and international trade and currency.

The outer Cabinet is a “domestic” group. Don’t waste your time meeting them - you have enough staffers for that. Sometimes “outer” Secretaries try to build their political base of support within their own bureaucracies. Don’t hesitate to fire and replace any of them if they start to criticize you and behave politically independent, counting on bureaucratic and interest groups’ support.

There’s one (negative for you) thing in common between all Secretaries - self-interest pushes them to protect and expand their departments and then they act more like representatives of their departments to the President then the presidential envoys they were appointed to be (“divided loyalty”).

Then Secretaries of State and Defense usually form a coalition against your National Security Adviser. You must be a smart mediator as Commander-in-Chief. These two have weekly meetings, and each of them has a weekly meeting with the DNI (Director of National Intelligence), so you must know from independent sources what they are talking about in case they “forget” to tell you the details. The Defense Secretary meets weekly with the Joint Chiefs, too.

 

 

Line of succession to the Presidency of the United States

Vice President

Speaker of the House of Representatives

Senate president pro tempore.

Secretary of Defense

Secretary of State

Secretary of Treasury

Attorney General

Secretary of Homeland Security

Secretary of Interior

Secretary of Agriculture

Secretary of Commerce

Secretary of Labor

Secretary of Health and Human Services

Secretary of Housing and urban Development

Secretary of Transportation

Secretary of Energy

Secretary of Education

2.8 Strategic Planning

That’s the biggest problem for all administrations. Strategic planning is the process of making present decisions based on very well-calculated future consequences. The basic strategic objective is a decision as to where to concentrate the government efforts — this is the essence of strategic planning.

The worst example of strategic planning is the war in Iraq.

It is crucial to choose a professional crew and place people in positions where their brains will work effectively and produce quality.

Planning formula:

- design strategy

- amplify and clarify strategy into policy

- organize a team

- guide execution

- make final strategic decision

A. Regular Planning Model:

subject, concept, idea definition of objectives

design of innovative options and debate

exploration of concepts, claims and possibilities

development of program outlines

establishment of expected performance criteria and indications

information gathering

integration of ideological elements

assignment of executive responsibility

scheduling

analysis and experiment

experiment evaluation, examination of likely consequences

comparison of expected and actual performance levels

determination of costs

prognosis

strategic decision

B. Express planning: information interpretation, projects design, choice of a project, decision

C. Regular (math) model:

Negotiations planning (example): pressure, compromise, tricks, break.

Let’s evaluate “pressure”: negative international reaction /-1/, breakdown /-1/ ,positive effect /+1/. Score: -2+1=-1 Conclusion: no pressure should be used.

D. Expertise model.

Government crisis (example): poor planning- wrong decisions- wrong actions- wrong execution- opposition activation- mass protests- coup

E. Scale model.

Risk factors: Risk levels:

Intenational sanctions medium

High inflation rise medium to high

High unemployment medium to high

Low public support level(low polls) medium

2.9 Presidential decision making rules:

1. Decision making is a multiple choice process.

2. Any decision involves political risk.

3. If you can’t make a decision, you need more information.

4. Be optimistic, but remain realistic.

5. Give yourself a deadline.

6. No brainstorming chaos.

7. There are two kinds of decisions: irreversible and reversible. Better know which kind you are facing.

 

Here’s the process:

a) Identify the problem

b) Analyze the problem — what are the facts?

c) Evaluate options — what are the pros and cons? what can go wrong?

d) Identify choices — which alternative is the best?

e) Implement plans — what action needs to be taken?

Bonus

Psychological Modeling of a President (Strategic Intelligence Method)

Intelligence services worldwide watch political leaders during public appearances, trying to calculate their physical and mental health judging by their look and behavior. In the US they also evaluate the executives and staffers who surround the President at official meetings to calculate what’s going on in the White House.

They look at:

- a very detailed biography

- personal needs, interests, philosophy

- political views

- intelligence, will-power, character, abilities

- behavior in crisis situations

- compromising facts and possible methods of influence

- personal, political and big business VIP connections

- financial situation

- administration and team

- political opposition and President

- Congress

　

Chapter 3. Domestic Policy

You can’t separate domestic and foreign policies because they are married to the same ugly guy - the budget deficit.

Domestic policy rests on three legs: education, health and environment. Americans will never support reduced funding for education, Social Security and Medicare (Medicaid) cuts and weakened environmental-protection laws. But I strongly advise you – don’t bother trying to emulate Europe and the British Commonwealth by providing health care for all – the privately insured middle class (your voting majority) won’t stand for it. If you don’t believe me, go to the polls.

Now, are you a challenger in politics? If “yes,” strengthen your political positions in Washington, DC first, then start some reforms. Before you start a reform you have to win the information war with your opponents and get public support. A reform is always a venture; the process may start taking on momentum and you won’t be able to stop it. You had better continue old reforms using a new tactic because new reforms bring new problems, new enemies and new mistakes, and big economic mistakes bring you an economic crises.

3.1 Dealing with big business .

1. Big organized money moves big political machines, big political machines move big lobbies, big lobbies move the President.

2. The President is an investment.

3. A group that rules the economy rules the White House.

4. A new political course comes not with a new President, but a change of big business’ global financial interests.

5. Follow 3 “golden rules”:

- protect big investments

- help to promote

- don’t interfere.

6. If the government doesn’t meet the needs of big business, it forms a new one of its own (something like a President’s Council). This usually happens when the President can’t provide financial stability and super-profits. Besides, big business has much more important foreign connections than the government.

7. Big business is:

a) money

b) political and economic control

8. Any political action gets an economic (big business) reaction.

In terms of partisan politics, Republicans are considered to be more sympathetic to big business interests while traditionally Democrats get electoral and financial support from organized labor.

Forget about antitrust policy business has become more global and efforts to enforce antitrust policies have proven deficient and are threats to national security.

3.2 The Economy

Economic strategy is as important as national security.

Appoint bright, educated and experienced people to the Cabinet and the Federal Reserve Board, who advise you on important economic decisions.

Press foreign governments on trade and currency issues.

Watch the markets 24/7.

Balance the budget (half goes to national defense - if there’s no war there are no jobs in America - 35% of US business works for Pentagon.

In general, the key word in domestic policy is accomplishment — budget balanced, taxes cut, jobs created. Use your budget power to the full extent because people usually hold you, not Congress, accountable for economic downturns. Whether you win or lose your second term in the Oval Office largely depends on your budget actions.

3.2.1 Managing the Economy

1.Regulate spending, taxation, monetary policy and foreign trade whichit has to be under strict political control – you have the right to propose legislation and veto any legislation you think incorrect. Keep in mind that Americans always insist on reducing government spending on foreign aid and space exploration, and they naturally hate any rise in taxes.

2.State and local governments, both through national associations like the US Conference of Mayors and Congress Members, always press the government to get more federal funds even at the expense of inflationary budget deficits.

3.Keep unemployment low and prices stable – these two factors are politically dangerous and failure here can bring a free-fall in approval ratings.

4.Take credit for economic growth, price stability and low unemployment even if you have nothing to do with it.

Still have problems? Try international initiatives.

There are four inevitable factors that will limit your control over the economy:

1) You must share power with Congress — you can’t levy taxes or appropriate money all by yourself;

2) The theoretical nature of the science of economics — no single economic theory has ever explained the behavior of the economy in the future;

3) The imprecision of economic information. Economic statistics and indicators do not measure the immediate conditions of the economy, but rather the conditions that prevailed between one and three months ago, depending on the particular economic statistics. Consequently, if you take action on the basis of incoming economic information you may be reacting to a problem that no longer exists or that is much worse than believed.

4) There are forces outside the reach of the federal government, like international factors (oil prices and foreign trade policies), state and local governments economic decisions and mistakes, big business decisions that affect employment, inflation, the trade deficit and public opinion — which is always against cutting social programs.

3.2.2 Budget Deficit

A large budget deficit is a headache and has extremely negative effects on the economy:

1. It limits the government’s flexibility to fight a possible recession; that requires tax cuts and deficit spending, which would exacerbate the debt problem. Since tax revenues fall during a recession and unemployment insurance and welfare payments rise, the budget would be under further strain precisely when deficit spending would be needed to pull the economy up.

2. It reduces the amount of funds available for achieving the nation’s social and defense goals, because interest must be paid on the national debt.

3. It can threaten the economy by “crowding out” corporate and private borrowers from the credit market. Because the government must borrow heavily to finance its deficit, it competes with business and individuals to borrow funds. The increased competition forces interest rates higher, causing loans (including mortgages) to become more expensive. As a result, business can afford to purchase less plant and equipment to expand and modernize their operations and fewer consumers can afford to finance purchases of expensive items, such as houses and cars. The resulting reduction in demand threatens economic growth.

4. The US budget deficit has become so large that domestic savings no longer can provide enough capital to service the debt. Consequently, the government must borrow from foreign sources to make up the difference. This makes us dependent on foreign investors and raises the possibility of a “stabilization crisis,” which can occur if foreign investors lose confidence in the dollar and liquidate their US investments. Such a crisis could cause the dollar to plummet and interest and inflation to rapidly accelerate.

3.2.3 Crisis

Crisis means that your government as a system is exhausted and it’s unable to rule the nation and resources effectively in an extreme situation, including economic, natural catastrophes and war. A crisis has three stages — before the crisis, when the first signs appear; crisis development until culmination; catastrophe followed by impeachment. A crisis could be “programmed” at the very beginning of your term (mistakes in political and economic courses, inexperienced personnel, faulty planning) or it can appear later (too many mistakes, change of political environment, shifts in the economic or international situation). Crisis management includes pre-crisis management and handling of the situation. You must be ready not only for a government crisis but also for sudden military attack, mass riots and natural disasters.

International trade is an important component of national security. Our “friends” (NATO members, Saudi Arabia and Japan) favor a dollar (that is neither overvalued nor undervalued) and a healthy US economy with relatively full employment and low inflation rate. If the dollar is weak, the value of much of their international currency reserves declines and their goods are less competitive in the US market. If the dollar is too strong, their investment capital migrates to the US and the high competitiveness of their products in the US market threatens to provoke calls for trade restrictions. If unemployment in the US rises, the major market for their goods declines. If interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe or Japan, investment capital moves to our country. Consequently, foreign governments press the United States to keep the exchange value of the dollar from fluctuating widely and to hold interest rates steady.

3.3 Domestic Propaganda and Mind Control

To effectively manage propaganda you must understand that most political views are acquired through political socialization and the most important influences in this process are the following.

1.Family. If both parents identify with one party, there’s strong likelihood that the children will begin their political life with the same party preference.

2.Education. School is a transmitter of patriotism. University is a transmitter of liberalism.

3.Religion. Roman Catholic respondents tend to be more liberal on economic issues than Protestants. Jewish arthe most liberal and vote mostly Democratic. Many Northern white Protestants vote Republican, whereas northern white Roman Catholics vote Democratic.

4.Economic status. Poor people vote Democratic. Rich vote Republican.

5.Political events. The war in Iraq divided the nation one-two-three.

6.Influence of opinion leaders. Those are people who have, as part of their job, the task of swaying people’s views (politicians and media). Their interest lies in defining the political agenda in such a way that discussions about policy options will take place on their terms.

7.Media. There seems to be no strongly partisan or ideological bias in TV coverage, although the visual and mental images conveyed by TV have a powerful impact.

8.Race. African Americans tend to be more liberal than white on social welfare issues, civil liberties and even foreign policy. They strongly support democrats.

9.Political culture (the set of beliefs and values regarding the political system that are widely shared by the citizens of a nation). Here the most important for us are the degrees of political trust and political tolerance which are measured through a specific series of survey questions, best if done through the Internet.

3.3.1 Propaganda Technology

You need 24/7 effective propaganda to get non-stop public support of your policy — your war for public support doesn’t stop the day you enter the White House — it may stop the day you leave the White House. If your polls go below 40%, the United States effectively has no President.

Use the following propaganda tools:

- general (abstract) information on big problem

- information dosage (the less people know — the easier you convince them)

- misinformation (full or partial) presented as news, sensations, rumors

- disorientation – one bit of information contradicts another one

- provocation – information “pushes” people (before you start war)

- information over-dosage – too much information (and people lose interest)

- exaggeration of enemy’s negative sides and promotion of scary data

- distraction of nation’s attention from news that is bad (for you) by publishing sensations and (political) scandals

- stereotype manipulation (“nuclear threat,” “international terror,” etc.

- “shuffle” – all news and facts match President’s political course

- “cocktail” – mix of true and false information

-”facts transportation” from abroad (you buy a foreign reporter and he’s publishing positive information on your politics; then you spread the information through American media)

Remember the principles of mass psychology: people don’t believe the government – they believe the market and the stock exchange; people need statements, not analysis.

3.3.2 Mind Control

Every day in 2004 we watched the Homeland Security Department “terror alert colors” and very often the threat was “high” or “very high.” With all my 30 years espionage experience I couldn’t understand why they were telling the nation about the threat and producing the multicolor picture on TV. Why? What can ordinary Americans do about that? What happened next made the situation absolutely clear for me and posed one more question for the nation: right after President Bush was re-elected the colors disappeared – why? Again, what happened? Is there no more “terror threat” to America? There is. But there’s mind control, too.

Mind control, which I call mind manipulation or MM, is used to program the “right political behavior” of the nation or “indifferent behavior,” if necessary, without people’s knowing or understanding the procedure. We are talking here about total illegal social control.

3.3.3 Principles of Mind Manipulation

1) It’s not enough if every single citizen, and the nation as a whole, thinks and behaves your way – it’s much better if they want to behave your way and feel comfortable, and are absolutely sure it’s their own choice and, finally, they become your active supporters.

2) If you want to control the nation and program peoples’ thoughts, you have to control knowledge (information, culture and communication).

3) The political imagination (belief) of the nation has to move in the right direction and has to be accepted as the most comfortable and most acceptable way of political activity: nobody is thinking, nobody is criticizing the President, nobody is making comparisons and drawing conclusions. Everybody believes the American President and hates his enemies.

4) Don’t waste time fighting foreign ideology, take care of ordinary Americans.

5) There is no difference between commercial and political advertising, and MM.

3.3.4 Technology of Mind Manipulation

1) Create a steadfast American collective will-power: “We want to live forever in the America we live in now” – through the media.

2) Don’t ask people to change their views and beliefs – they have only to change the object of their aggression – “Now we understand who is to be blamed for the problems! (the previous President, political opponents). “Now we understand where the problem lies!”(economic cycles, etc.).

3) Get people accustomed to accept facts but believe only in the “right” commentaries – any common sense has to be “switched off.” This way you create “mass artificial schizophrenia” — people lose the ability (and desire) to connect statements and facts (notions) and just believe.

Besides, by extreme exaggeration of the enemy’s negative qualities you can install step by step the national schizophrenic fear and people have to accept you, the US President, as a savior. Plus, no matter what, repeat your major statements until people start accepting them without thinking.

4) Divide the nation into “good Americans”(patriots) and “bad Americans”(the “minority).

Then make it clear that it’s much better and more comfortable to be “good” than “bad.” “We aren’t watching good Americans who support the President. The surveillance is for bad Americans and we make their lives and careers uncomfortable. We have to do that because enemies of America may be using them.” This method is called artificial social selection and its ultimate goal is a total regulation and standardization of the nation.

5) For successful MM, use the combined efforts of popular American writers, TV and radio anchors, talented publicists and columnists, business and show business celebrities, politicians. Thus, step by step you create the “industry of correct political behavior and correct American thinking.”

6) Use a combination: statement + image. It reduces the effort needed to understand your message and makes people comfortable with you.

7) Shift all popular TV shows to prime time – Americans don’t have to think about politics after they come home.

8) Keep terrorists in Guantanamo Bay forever – Americans have to see the threat every day .

 

3.4 Emergency Powers of the President (Setting Aside Democracy)

I. Powers over individuals.

Confine any individuals seen to be threats to national security.

Restrict travel of Americans to other nations or travel of some foreigners to the USA.

Restrict movement of citizens within the United States.

Require persons, because of their backgrounds, associations with certain groups, or ownership of particular articles (such as weapons), to register with government officials.

Restrict certain persons from working in industries names as critical to national security.

Remove federal employees regarded as threats to national security.

Declare martial law.

Assign armed forces to conflicts in foreign nations.

II. Powers over property.

Order stockpiling of strategic materials (such as uranium).

Impose restrictions on exports (such as hi-tech products).

Allocate materials in ways necessary to aid national defense.

Require industries to give priority to government contracts and seize industries failing to comply with such orders.

Fix wages and prices.

III. Powers over communication.

Withhold information from Congress and the public deemed potentially sensitive to national security.

Monitor and censor communications between United States and other nations.

Require foreign representatives to register with US government.

The President also has the authority to declare states of emergency in areas of the country hit by hurricanes, floods, earthquakes or other natural disasters, and to use this to enhance his power or public image.

Chapter 4. The US Congress Management

“To my mind Judas Iscariot was nothing but a low, mean, premature Congressman.”

“It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American class except Congress.” — Mark Twain

“If everybody here connected with politics had to leave town because of chasing women and drinking, you’d have no government.” — Senator Barry Goldwater.

One night President Cleveland was awakened by his wife: “Wake up! There are burglars in the house!” “No, my dear,” said Cleveland sleepily, “in the Senate maybe, not in the House.”

“Israel controls the US Senate. The Senate is subservient, much too much; we should be more concerned about US interests rather than doing the bidding of Israel. The great majority of the Senate of the US — somewhere around 80% — is completely in support of Israel; anything Israel wants, Israel gets. This has been demonstrated again, and this has made [foreign policy] difficult for our government.” — Senator W. Fulbright, April 15, 1973).

The White House, not Congress, represents the nation.

You are the leader and you set the legislative agenda.

They can’t start business until you give them State of the Union Address and a budget message. That’s your program – and theirs.

Start your first term with a big legislative victory.

The US Constitution says nothing on how you manage the Congress so feel free to use the advice in these pages.

 

4.1 How a Bill Becomes a Law

A Senator or Representative introduces a bill in Congress by sending it to the clerk of the House or the Senate, who assigns it a number and title. This procedure is termed the first reading. The clerk then returns the bill to appropriate committee of the Senate or the House. If the Committee opposes the bill, it will table or “kill” it. Otherwise, the Committee holds hearings to listen to opinions and facts offered by members and other interested people. The Committee then debates the bill and possibly offers amendments. A vote is taken, and if favorable, the bill is sent back to the clerk of the House or Senate. The clerk reads the bill to the house — the second reading. Members may then debate the bill and suggest amendments.

After debate and possibly amendment, the bill is given a third reading, simply of the title and put to a voice or roll-call vote. If passed, the bill goes to the other house, where it may be defeated or passed, with or without amendments, If defeated, the bill “dies.” If passed with amendments, a conference committee made up of members of both houses works out the differences and arrives at a compromise. After passage of the final version by both houses, the bill is sent to the President. If the President signs it, the bill becomes a law. The President may, however, veto the bill, refuse to sign it and send it back to the house where it originated. The President’s objections are then read and debated, and a roll-call vote is taken. If the bill receives less than a two-thirds majority, it is defeated. If it receives at least two-thirds, it is sent to the other house. If that house also passes it by at least a two-thirds majority, the veto is overridden, and the bill becomes a law.

If the President neither signs nor vetoes the bill within 10 days — not including Sundays — it automatically becomes a law even without the President’s signature. However, if Congress has adjourned within those 10 days, the bill is automatically “killed”; this indirect rejection is termed a pocket veto.

4.2 Functions of Congress

If you want to rule America, you have to rule the US Senate. Remember, you are one person concentrated on your program. Congress is a big and disorganized, chaotic institution — not a single word pronounced by these people ever makes history. Respect Congress anyway — it creates the illusion that the American people influence big politics through their representatives.

The functions of Congress are supposed to be:

- lawmaking for all Americans

- serve constituents as brokers between them and federal government

- representation of diverse interests — which is often impossible, because members can’t be delegates for everyone

- oversight of the bureaucracy to follow up the laws it has enacted to ensure that they are being enforced and administered in the way Congress intended

- by holding committee hearings and investigations, changing the size of an agency budget and cross-examining high-level presidential nominees to head major agencies (a formality, nothing serious)

- the public education function

- resolving conflicts in American society (see “Interest groups” game).

Differences between the House and the Senate:

House Senate

 

435 members 100 members

Members chosen from local districts Members chosen from entire state

Two-year term Six-year term

Originally elected by voters Originally (until 1913) elected by state legislatures

May impeach (indict) federal officials May convict federal officials

Debate limited Debate extended

Floor action controlled Unanimous consent rulers

Less prestige and less individual notice More prestige and media attention

Originates bills for raising revenues Power to advise the President on, and consent to, presidential appointments and treaties

Local or narrow leadership National leadership

National leadership

 

The major difference between the House and the Senate is that the House’s rules and procedures are strict, while Senate rules are more broad and open to interpretation.

There’s one thing they have in common — inertia.

Note: Members of the Senate serve for six years, with only one-third of the body up for reelection every second year. Thus, every other Senate term is not affected directly by a Presidential election and this gives Senators greater freedom to oppose presidential initiatives without as much concern about short-term constituent pressures. The Senators’ independence can be a problem for the president even if they are of the same party.

The Congress has five main checks over the President’s power:

1. to override a veto

2. to approve your appointees to federal jobs

3. to approve treaties

4. impeachment

5. to stop funding executive department programs

Seniority (the length of continuous service on the record of a member of Congress or Senate) is the single most important factor in determining:

- who becomes Speaker of the House or President pro tempore of the Senate

- who is influential in floor debates

- who has an easier time getting his legislative measures adopted on the floor of Congress

Never mind about Representatives (especially when it comes to foreign affairs and national security) — they understand very little and can do practically nothing due to their two-year term. Your problem is the Senate (though you have to be involved in Congressional elections every two years, too.) Yes, the Senate is a problem because it shares executive powers with the President (confirmation of appointments and approval of treaty ratification). And if it comes to impeachment, the final decision is the Senate’s.

The House originates the most important thing in the United States — tax legislation, but the Senate can amend any bill and the trick is — they do this toward the end of the session. And the worst problem on Capitol Hill is balancing the budget.

Committees of the Senate: Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, Appropriations, Armed Services, Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Budget, Commerce, Science, and transportation, Energy and Natural Resources, Environment and Public Works, Finance, Foreign Relations, Government Affairs, Health, Education,Labor, and Pensions, Judiciary, Rules and Administration, Small Business, Veterans Affairs.

Committees of the House: Agriculture, Appropriations, Armed Services, Budget, Education and the Workforce, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, Government Reform, House Administration, International Relations, Judiciary, Resources, Rules, Science, Small Business, Standarts of Official Conduct, Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs, Ways and Means.

4.3 What you don’t know about them

 

1. A Congressional session is nothing else but a waste of federal time and money — you don’t need debates because Congressional staffers can do all the technical work and they can negotiate between themselves and balance positions. Senators and Congressmen don’t even have to come to Washington — they can vote from their local offices. So these people can spend their time helping thousands of constituents, most of whom never saw their Senator alive.

2. The President is dependent on Congressional cooperation to carry out the executive responsibilities of the Office because Congress has to authorize government programs, establish administrative agencies to implement the problems and funds to finance them.

3. It’s important if President belongs to the party with a majority in the House and Senate. But if your party loses the majority in Congress, you have to work out new political strategy yourself. And you know what? Go to the polls right away and ask voters why they supported the other party. What happened?

4. President’s prestige (popular support or political capital) affects Congressional response to his politics.

5. Influence in Congress is courted only for long periods of service; a Senator with 30 years in office (like Edward Kennedy) has considerably more power than a Senator in his first or second term.This causes the electorate to increasingly favor incumbents, as dislodging one’s Congressman or Senator after 30 years, even if the candidate or his party have become unpopular, can be viewd as hurting one’s district financially. It is often thought that a freshman would be less able to bring home federal money for his state or district.

6. For most Senators, the Senate is a platform for Presidential election campaign. Senators who openly express presidential ambitions are better able to gain media exposure and to establish careers as spokespersons for large national constituencies.

7. The first act of a newly elected Representative is to maneuver for election to the Senate. Why? First, they enjoy their position, power and money for six years non-stop. Second, there are only a hundred Senators and the publicity is much, much greater. But…Representatives have a much better chance to be re-elected.

8. Congress rejects two thirds of President’s proposals.

9. Senators are always looking for a BBD (bigger, better deal) and often shift from one committee to another (a good choice is those dealing with taxes, budget, energy, commerce).

10. Bills to benefit big business move smoothly. (Congress doesn’t like the poor — they don’t contribute; sorry). To gain majority support for big business legislation members have a special trick — log rolling, when factions combine efforts.

11. Senators don’t depend on the people — they depend on the media.

12. If a certain Senator is blocking the President’s proposal, appointment or plan, that means he wants to get the President’s attention.

13. When Senators want to bury issues without resolving them, they create committees.

14. The Senate is a relatively small structure and personal relations between Senators are extremely important.

15. Senators have no incentive to study the details of most pieces of legislation and their decision is simplified by quickly checking how key colleagues have voted or intend to vote.

16.To have power a Senator has to object: much of the Senate work is done by unanimous consent and if you object you’ll be approached for sure by some influential people including other Senators, Secretaries, President’s aides or the President himself. They’ll try to press, blackmail or buy you — and that means you’ve got a piece of the power pie.

17. Senators avoid responsibility and their legitimate functions and roles, especially in economic policy.

18. Congress doesn’t like it when any government agency grows, but these people love the military because military contracts are very lucrative for Congressional districts.

19. Senior Senators teach “newcomers” to vote against any reform which is a threat to their stability.

20. A Senator has real influence on legislation only if he has professional staff in charge of the projects.

21. Senators are afraid to vote against a defense budget increase because then they may be accused of a lack of patriotism (the Pentagon gives jobs in their states too).

22. Republicans and Democrats are not really enemies, here, though both sides are always looking for a “traitor” or “insider” in the other camp.

23. You must have “insiders” in the Senate yourself, because the other party could prepare secretly and then launch officially some investigation against you or the members of your Administration.

24. A legislator does exactly what his voters want him to do — stealing federal money from other states and districts, because for him the most important thing is numbers — polls in his state showing how many people approve his activity. His donors watch these numbers too and estimate their investment and the necessity to support re-election.

25. Every member of Congress has a so-called “split personality” — a “Hill style” while working on Capitol Hill and a “home style” while back in the state or district with the voters.

26. A Senator makes a decision only after thinking about what it means in terms of the re-election money that will come to him or to his opponents. His voting decisions depend on his party membership, constituency pressures, state and regional loyalty ideology, interest groups’ influence. His stubbornness comes from the fact that he doesn’t want to be seen by his constituents as a “rubber stamp” for President’s decisions, especially when the bill in question benefits a Senator’s state. (And the hidden problem is — you want to move fast, especially during the first year while your personal popularity is high — but for the Congress speed is not important).

27. Sooner or later every member of Congress starts playing the “pork barrel” game. It’s nothing else but a diversion of federal funds to projects and places not out of national need but to enhance a member’s chances of re-election in his district (military projects, federal buildings, highways construction projects). So be ready for a “Christmas gift” when these fellows add pork barrel amendments to appropriations bills you are about to sign. They often wait until late in each session to pass critical spending bills, which narrows your range of possible responses because a veto may not be feasible if Congress has adjourned and the funds needed to run the federal government are contained in the legislation.

28. In Congress a small percentage of bills (about 500 out of 10,000) actually become law because many bills are introduced merely to get favorable press. The strategy is especially effective if the legislation is “tied” to the headlines of the day (mass murders, natural disasters, ethnic riots etc.).

29. In the Senate it’s easier for a minority to block the bill than for a majority to pass it: a 60-vote majority is needed to force a final vote on the bill, while only 41 votes are needed to continue debate and delay a vote.

30. The minority can hold the majority responsible as the party in power for whatever legislation does or does not emerge from the Senate. But both parties prefer to be the party in power in the Senate - all Senate legislation begins in the committees, whose membership and chairmanship are controlled by the party in power. Besides, each chairman has power in terms of controlling the committee budgets and deciding which hearings will be held and which legislation he will allow to be released to the Senate floor for a vote. He can also “lock up the bill” in committee until it dies. Perfect!

4. 4 A Few Congressional Run-ins with the Law

 

Upon certification by the Senator’s/representative’s home state, a new Senator/Рepresentative takes an oath of office:

“I,(name) do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies,foreign and domestic;that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same;that I take this obligation freely,without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion;and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter:So help me God”.

1904 Senator Joseph Burton of Kansas is convicted of bribery.

1924 Representative John Langley of Kentucky is convicted of violating the National Prohibition Act.

1931 Representative Harry Rowbottom of Indiana is convicted of accepting bribes.

1934 Representative George Foulkes of Michigan is convicted of conspiracy to assess postmasters for political contributions.

1946 Representative James Curley of Massachusetts is convicted of mail fraud and conspiracy.

1947 Representative Andrew May of Kentucky is convicted of conspiring to defraud the government and accepting bribes.

1948 Representative J. Parnell Thomas of New Jersey is convicted of conspiring to defraud the government, payroll padding and receiving kickbacks from salaries.

1954 Senate censures Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin for having acted “contrary to senatorial ethics” and for bringing the Senate “into dishonesty and disrepute.”

1956 Representative Thomas Lane of Massachusetts is convicted of federal income tax evasion.

1969 Representative Hugh Addonizio of New Jersey is convicted of extortion, conspiracy and income tax evasion. In a separate incident, on Chappaquiddick Island in Massachusetts on July 18, a car driven by Senator Ed Kennedy plunges off Dike Bridge into the water. While the Senator manages to extricate himself from the vehicle, his young secretary Mary Jo Kopechne, a passenger, is trapped and dies in the car.

1970 Representative John Dowdy of Texas is convicted of conspiracy, perjury and bribery.

1972 Representative Cornelius Gallagher of New Jersey pleads guilty to tax evasion.

1973 Representative Frank Brasco of New York is convicted of conspiracy to receive bribes. Representative Bertram Podell of New York pleads guilty to conspiracy, bribery and perjury.

1975 Representative Andrew Hinshaw of California is convicted of bribery and embezzlement.

1976 Elizabeth Ray avers that Representative Wayne Hays of Ohio put her on the payroll solely because she was his mistress. The Washington Post reveals a Justice Department investigation into influence buying by Tongsun Park, a South Korean businessman. Representative James Hastings of New York is convicted of mail fraud.

1977 Representative Richard Tonry of Louisiana is convicted of receiving illegal campaign contributions and obstruction of justice.

1978 Representative Charles Diggs of Michigan is convicted of mail fraud and perjury.

1980 Representative Michael Myers of Pennsylvania is convicted of bribery and conspiracy as part of the FBI’s ABSCAM investigation. Senator Harrison Williams of New Jersey is convicted of bribery and conspiracy in ABSCAM. Representative Raymond Lederer of Pennsylvania is convicted of conspiracy and bribery in ABSCAM. Representative John Jenrette Jr. of South Carolina is convicted of bribery and conspiracy in ABSCAM Representative Frank Thompson of New Jersey is convicted of bribery in ABSCAM. Representative John Murphy of New York is convicted of bribery in ABSCAM. Representative Richard Kelly of Florida is convicted of bribery in ABSCAM. (ABSCAM was an FBI sting operation in which a mysterious Arab sheik Abdul bribed top US officials and inveigled them into illegal investment schemes.)

1983 Representative George Hansen of Idaho is convicted of filing false financial disclosure statements.

1987 Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, who had disclosed that he was a homosexual, was accused of hiring a former sex partner as a personal assistant.

1988 Representative Mario Biaggi of New York is convicted of obstructing justice, tax evasion, conspiracy, extortion and accepting bribes. Representative Pat Swindall of Georgia is convicted of perjury. 1989 Representative Donald Lukens of Ohio is convicted of contributing to the delinquency of a minor. Representative Jim Bates of California accused of sexually harassing women on his staff.

1990 Senator David Durenberg of Minnesota is charged with receiving illegal reimbursements for housing expenses and for backdating his purchase of a share in a condominium. The senate formally denounces him in July 1990 and orders him to make restitution for his financial misconduct. The “Keating Five”: As the trial of Arizona financier Charles Keating proceeds, it becomes known that five US Senators (Alan Cranston of California, Dennis DeConcini of Arizona, Donald Riegle of Michigan, John Glenn of Ohio and John McCain of Arizona) used their influence to limit the regulation of Keating’s savings bank. (By 1987 McCain received about $112,000 in political contributions.) The Senate Ethics Committee issues a report reprimanding Senator Cranston for accepting more than $850,000 in contributions to voter-registration groups that he sponsored in return for intervening on Keating’s behalf with bank regulators. The other four Senators are mildly reprimanded for their conduct.

1991 Representative Nick Mavroules of Massachusetts pleads guilty to bribery and tax evasion.

1993 Representative Larry Smith of Florida is convicted of income tax evasion and campaign-reporting violations. Representative Albert Bustamante of Texas is convicted of racketeering and accepting an illegal gratuity.

1994 Representative Carrol Hubbard of Kentucky pleads guilty to filing a false financial-disclosure statement.

1995 Representative Mel Reynolds of Illinois is convicted of having sex with a minor and obstructing justice.

4.5 How to Control Congres

The President can propose legislation, but Congress is not required to pass any of the administration’s bills. But you know already that Senators and Representatives need re-election more than anything else. So you can go with indirect influence through appeals to the public; this is a confrontation and direct challenge to Congressional authority. You can also enlist the support of interest groups or direct influence through favors and personal involvement in the legislative process. (Get public support for a proposal before it’s discussed with the Congress.)

And don’t hesitate to start a national debate — you have enough media attention for that.

You also have an independent tool, presidential power in the form of an executive order. You can give favors directly to members of Congress or to influential people in their constituency, or the favor may be of benefit to the constituency itself:

- appointments with the President and other high-ranking officials

- federal grants to recipients in the constituency, government contracts with local companies, the deposit of federal funds in banks, grants to local government and educational institutions

- support of projects (military installations, research and administrative facilities, public works such as buildings, dams and navigational improvements to rivers and harbors, etc.)

- recommendations for the US district court judges, attorneys, marshals, etc.

- campaign assistance (cash contributions from the party’s national committee invitations to bill-signing ceremonies, White House parties or to accompany President on trips

- bargaining and arm-twisting (pressure and threats to lose the projects).

Tools

1. The Congressional Relations Office. Used for:

- intense lobbying to form Congressional coalitions if the opposition controls one or both houses

- intelligence gathering (of policy preferences — centralized headcounts reveal the voting intentions on a particular bill and constituency concerns of individual members)

- representation

- creating “inner coalitions”

- coordination of executive branch legislative activity (monitoring and tracking bills, controlling departments’ staff appointments, collaborating with departments’ liaison offices)

Attention! Senators and Congressmen have to trust your people, who must keep their mouths shut, otherwise there will be no business. Anyway, watch these people — a Senator can call one of your assistants and if they hear “no,” he will try to reach somebody else until he gets “Yes, the President will see you.” Don’t let this happen — if it’s “no,” it has to be everybody’s “no.” There has to be no difference between personal views of your adviser and your official views.

2. Congressional Relations personnel of various executive Departments are a conduit. Talk to the Secretaries and explain to them that they have to give the Director of Congressional Relations their best people.

3. The White House interest groups liaison staff (office of public liaison)

4. Veto. Threatened with a veto, Senators often seek compromise.

Congress has its ways to undermine your vetoes or threats of vetoes. Because you can’t veto parts of a bill, they load up major legislation with amendments on a completely different subject (“riders”) that they know the President must accept. (Presidents who vetoed the most bills: Franklin Roosevelt – 635, Harry Truman – 250, Dwight Eisenhower – 181, Ronald Reagan – 78, Gerald Ford – 66).

5. Executive agreement. It permits the President to enter into open or secret agreements with a foreign government without any advice or consent of the Senate. There are two categories of executive agreements:

а) presidential agreements made solely on the basis of the constitutional authority of the President and under his sole power to faithfully execute the laws (or under his diplomatic or Commander-in-Chief powers). President needs to report secret agreement to the Foreign Relations Committees of the two houses no later than 60 days after such agreement has entered into force. Congress has no authority to disapprove it.

b) congressional-executive agreements, which cover all international agreements entered into under the combined authority of the President and Congress.

Finally, this is what you can do with a bill:

- sign the bill (the bill becomes a law)

- do nothing (the bill becomes a law in ten days)

- veto the bill (the bill does not become a law)

- pocket veto the bill (hold the bill until Congress is no longer in session, and the bill does not become a law)

4.6 The “Iron Triangle,” a Sub-Government Mafia

 

The “Iron Triangle,” an anti-presidential control system, is a strong alliance among three groups — federal agencies, interest groups and Congressional committees and subcommittees, where each member has a mutually beneficial relationship with the other two and all members work together to pursue common goals. (This strong connection between federal agencies and the Congress members is especially dangerous for the President in a political sense — it’s too hard to influence them). Agency careerists, interest groups lobbyists and members of Congress and their staffers with close personal mafia-like relationships discuss policy issues (proposed legislation, budget, personal concerns) and then agree on preferred outcomes on the basis of the mafia principle of exchanging favors. Bureaucrats want unlimited funding and legislation granting them maximum authority and discretion. In return, members of Congress want preferential treatment for their constituencies, technical assistance for their staff, and often help in drafting legislation. Interest groups’ lobbyists want members of Congress to pass and fund programs that benefit groups and to help group members be appointed to and confirmed for key government jobs. In return, Congress wants financial and political help for their campaigns. Interest groups want a strong say in federal agencies’ decisions, including the writing of regulations, ideally through a formal advisory system that would give the interest group either formal or informal veto power over such decisions. In return, federal agencies want the political support of interest groups, including positive congressional testimony and lobbying for additional funds for the agency.

Interest Groups

There are 80,000 lobbyists in Washington, DC . The National Rifle Association has a full-time Washington, DC staff of 300 lobbyists.

Congress can’t live without interest groups, interest groups can’t live without Congress. They are glued together and you must know the hidden mechanism of their relations if you want to manage the US Congress properly. An interest group is any organized group whose members share common objectives. These groups actively attempt to influence government policy makers, mostly Senators and Representatives, through direct and indirect strategies, including the marshalling of public opinion, lobbying and electioneering.

Lobbyists, like professional spies, are always looking for intelligence information on everybody in Washington, DC from personal contacts, government memos, press releases, public information programs, technical bulletins and regulations. For them the most important thing is to obtain information before it’s officially released — it allows their customers, i.e. corporations, to develop PR campaigns to offset possible adverse reaction to their goals. Let’s have a closer look at their strategies.

I. Direct strategies

1. Lobbying

The main activity of lobbying is private meetings, in which lobbyists make known to Congressmen the lobbyist’s client interests, and possibly offer inducements for cooperating. Lobbyists furnish needed information Congressmen could not hope to obtain on their own. It’s to the lobbyist’s advantage to provide accurate information so that the policy maker will rely on him in the future.

Lobbying includes: testifying before congressional committees for or against proposed legislation; testifying before executive rule-making agencies, such as the Federal Trade Commission, for or against proposed rules; assisting legislators or bureaucrats in drafting legislation of prospective regulations (lobbyists often can furnish legal advice on the specific details of legislation); inviting legislators to social occasions such as cocktail parties or boating expeditions; providing political information to legislators (lobbyists often have better information than the party leadership about how other legislators are going to vote). In this case, the political information they furnish may be a key to legislative success).

2. The “Ratings” Game

The over-all behavior of legislators can be influenced through their rating systems. Each year the interest group selects those votes on legislation that it feels are most important to the organization’s goals. Legislators are given a score based on the percentage of times that he or she voted with the interest group (from 0 to 100%)

3. Campaign assistance

A strong side of interest groups is that they are able to provide workers for political campaigns, including precinct workers to get out the vote, volunteers to put up posters and pass out literature. In states where membership in certain interest groups is large, candidates look for the groups’ endorsement in the campaign.

Endorsements are important because an interest groups usually publicizes its choices in its membership publication and because the candidate can use the endorsement in his campaign literature. Making no endorsement can be perceived as disapproval of the candidate.

II. Indirect Strategies

By working through third parties — which may be constituents, the general public or other groups, the interest groups can try to influence government policy. Indirect techniques mask the interest group’s own activities and make the effort appear to be spontaneous. Furthermore, legislators are usually more impressed by contacts from the constituents than from an interest group’s lobbyist.

1.Generating public pressure

Interest groups try to produce a “groundswell” of public pressure to influence the government. Such efforts may include advertisements in national magazines and newspapers, mass mailings, television publicity and demonstrations. They may commission polls to find out what the public sentiments are and then publicize the results. The goal of this activity is to convince policy makers that public opinion wholly supports the group’s position. Some corporations and interest groups use such a method as climate control — it calls for public relations efforts that are aimed at improving the public image of the industry or group and not necessarily related to any specific political issue. Contributions by corporations and groups in support of public TV and commercials extolling the virtues of corporate research are examples of climate control. By building a reservoir of favorable public opinion, groups believe it less likely that their legislative goals will be met with opposition by the public.

2. Constituents as lobbyists

A very effective method is to use constituents to lobby for the group’s goals. In the “shotgun” approach, the interest group tries to mobilize large numbers of constituents to write or phone Congressmen or the President. This method is only effective on Capitol Hill when there is an extraordinary number of responses, because legislators know that the voters did not initiate the communication on their own. A more influential variation of this technique uses only important constituents (mostly local big business).

3. Building alliances

Interest group forms alliance with other group concerned about the same legislation. The advantages of an alliance are that it looks as if larger public interests are at stake, and it hides the specific interests of the individual groups involved. It’s also a device for keeping like-minded groups from duplicating one another’s lobbying efforts.

One of the strongest iron triangles is a so-called “military-industrial complex” — its members include the Department of Defense, weapons contractors and related firms and congressional armed services committees. Some popular interest groups include: American Bar Association, American Farm Bureau Federation, American Welfare Association, Fund for Constitutional Government, National Association of Community Action Agencies, National Rifle Association, National Organization of Women.

Chapter 5. Foreign Policy

A king has to do three jobs: persuade the rich to help the poor; persuade the best woman to marry him; and persuade other kings to fight each other instead of fighting him. OK.

Foreign policy is a set of political goals that seeks to outline how USA will interact with other countries;it’s designed to help protect our national interests, national security, ideological goals, and economic growth. Successful foreign policy needs electoral and financial support. This comes naturally when you demonstrate the permanent presence of external threats like the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or international terrorism, to keep the nation alert and in line. Foreign policy serves to help you with domestic problems which often “push” you to make hard international decisions. It’s not about democracy in Iraq — it’s about your reelection.

U.S. National Security Strategy 2010

1. Globalization intensified the dangers we face – international terrorism…”

Wrong. International terrorism does not exist. Every group has a target of its owm – mainly USA and Israel.

2. Renew our focus on Afghanistan as part of commitment to disrupt, dismantle and defat al-Qa’ida.

Wrong. 10 years – we got nothing; there’s nothing to renew.

3. We must pursue a strategy of global leadership.

Wrong. We can’t do it unless Russia and China are disintegrated as multi-national states.

4. Our rejection af actions like tortures…”

Wrong. If CIA is not professional, if it has no damned secret sources what else they have to do ?

5. Key centers of influence – China, India, Russia.

Wrong. It’s a self-rejection.

6. We will pursue engagement with hostile nations [Iran and North Korea] to test their intentions.

Wrong. They are a threat to us , because we are not a threat to them.

7. Peace between Israel and his neighbors…

Wrong Peace is not profitable over there.

8. We must maintain our military conventional superiority, while enhancing its capacity to defeat assymetric threats.

Wrong. Army can’t fight assymetric threats like guerrilla, it’s all about intelligence special ops.

9. Our intelligence and homeland security efforts must be integrated with our security policies, and those of our allies…

Wrong. France, germany and Israel are into industrial espionage in America.

10. Nations must have inventives to behave responsibly, or be isolated when they do not.

Wrong. religious nations take punishment as a test.

11. Rebalance our military capabilities to excel at counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, stability operations.

Wrong. WE have to rebalanve our political efforts and redirect Taliban to othre targets (countries).

12. Analysts, agents and officers who protect us must have access to all relevant intelligence throughout the government.

Very wrong. Imagine a ‘mole” with such access !

Presidential Foreign Policy Doctrines

Monroe Doctrine: European powers must keep their hands off the Western Hemisphere.

Theodore Roosevelt Doctrine: The United States will police chronic wrongdoing or impotence.

Truman Doctrine: To support free people resisting subjugation from internal or outside groups.

Eisenhower Doctrine: To intervene in the Middle East against Communist attacks.

Nixon Doctrine: To help allies while fostering their reduced reliance on troops.

Secretary of State William P.Rogers signs the Peace Agreement ending the Vietnam War. 1973.

Carter Doctrine: To keep the Persian Gulf free of foreign control.

Reagan Doctrine: To support anti-Communist insurgencies anywhere.

5.1 Foreign policy decision making involves:

- assessment of the international and domestic political environment

- goal setting. We have multiple foreign policy goals, and we must determine which goal is effected by the international and domestic political environment at any given time. In addition, foreign policy goals may conflict, which will require you to priortise.

- determination of policy options

- decision making action

- implementation of chosen policy option

You have to decide if you want to design and execute foreign policy all by yourself, even not telling Secretary of State about your confidential talks, negotiations or special operations. There’s one more strong point — you also have considerable advantages over Congress in foreign policy making — you know why?

First, as head of foreign policy bureaucracy, the diplomatic corps, the intelligence agencies and the military, you control information that is vital to the foreign policy making.

Second, you, unlike Congress, can work with speed and secrecy and this is essential if you have to handle international crisis which threatens national security.

Third, since it is your responsibility to communicate with foreign governments through treaty negotiations and diplomatic channels, you can most easily formulate policy that is consistent with negotiating positions and official statements.

Fourth, as the executor of foreign policy, Commander in Chief of the armed forces and appointer of diplomatic personnel, you are in the best position to judge the capacity of the government to carry out a given foreign policy initiative. Fifth, you are elected by a national constituency and you can focus on international problems that affect the entire nation.

Finally, get highly professional staff, because international relations involve a diverse range of issues, from globalization to global warming, nuclear proliferation, nationalism, terrorism, organized crime, human security, and human rights.

“Golden” rules

1. International treaties have to be negotiated by diplomats prior to endorsement by presidents.

2. The information gathered by spies plays an increasingly role in diplomacy (arms-control treaties would be impossible without the power of reconnaissance satellites and agents to monitor compliance).

3. If you start war, it doesn’t mean you failed diplomacy , it means military decision is much more profitable.

4. Make it clear to foreign leaders right away whether you are or you are not going to follow the previous President’s foreign policy (after consultations with big business). If you are not going to follow it, design a doctrine of your own (it’s a strategy that is the recognized approach or policy of the US government.

5. National security is your top priority and is the “king’s job” because actually you have no domestic political obstacles to your foreign policy (if it’s a question of war), so you are a chief decision maker there. (The CIA Director has to be excluded from this process — you don’t need him. Besides, the CIA even today, no matter how hard I tried to educate the Agency, remains the worst of the worst and is not to be reformed — it has to be abolished. We have to transfer political intelligence functions to Pentagon. National security is designed to protect the United States and the vital interests (investments) of big business and to promote American values in a world of rivals, and the CIA, through all 60 years of its history, has proved to be absolutely unsuitable for the job).

6. Any country has to be involved in the sphere of our strategic interests if it has a strategic geographic position, significant sources of raw materials, a well-developed transportation system, or could be used as a military base. The strategic policy of any country rotates around the USA and if not — that means a certain President is waiting for greater incentives to come on board. Against target countries, don’t hesitate to use the strategies of pre-emptive war, post-war (post-crisis) reconstruction, and nation building (which means erasing national identity and supplanting it by liberal values).

With China’s growth and Russia’s rebirth, the Cold War is back with a vengeance, so we are back to secret deals based on spheres of influence — but that’s a temporary strategy.

7. You can’t always do what you want without help - you are dependent on other world leaders, Congressional positions and international public opinion. Ask the Senate to help you sometimes - believe me, they’ll be happy and proud to do so.

8. Create super-profitable conditions for big business by political penetration worldwide. Big money men start investing abroad when they find a safe environment — law and order. The more they invest the more political power they get (international corporationsis the most important element of international system ; the other two are governments and non-governmental organizations).

9. Use big investors to ruin other national economies and governments by withdrawing finances when the economic situation is worsening. As soon as the country opens its financial markets, it increases its dependence on global economic processes that it cannot control; and a financial crisis can easily be staged. Conversely, other countries’ access to the US markets is a powerful economic and political tool.

10. Make the US markets the most attractive for investors by provoking unstable situations in other countries and regions.

11. Send troops or work through military intelligence (not the CIA) to wherever you perceive a threat to the US investments.

12. Use pressure everywhere — strategic nuclear missiles are still the most powerful blackmail tool. Remember, if you are dealing with Russia or China, they will look not only for agreement, but for advantages.

13. Use “personal diplomacy” — phone calls to foreign leaders (every planned phone call has to go through the National Security Adviser and be well prepared, like a serious negotiation). Most important are phone calls to our allies — NATO members. Don’t forget to wish happy birthday to the leaders in person!

14. Use “informal diplomacy” – recruit politicians in other nations who might be able to give informal access to a country’s leadership. In some situations, such as betweeb USA and China diplomacy is done through semi-formal channels using interlocutors such as academic members or thinktanks. This occurs in situations when presidents wish to express intentions or to suggest methods of resolving a diplomatic situation, but do not wish to express a formal position.

15. Don’t hesitate to use summits as a tool, because:

-if you meet a foreign leader in person, you can reduce tensions and clarify national interests.

-personal relationship may lead to improved relations between nations.

-summits allow you to focus national attention on specific issues.

-presidents engaging in personal diplomacy are much more capable than career diplomatic bureaucrats of understanding the domestic policy consequences of diplomatic actions.

-summit negotiations can yield quick results, since discussions are between leaders with the power of decision rather than between representatives who must receive instructions, make reports and rely new proposals.

-diplomatic impasses may be overcome at summits by shifts in policy that only top leaders are empowered to make.

-if presidents desire an international forum for their diplomatic policies, a summit meeting can provide one.

-successful summits can enhance the image of the President and the United States

16. If you’re ready to fight for national interests, forget about human rights — you can always blame infractions on the other side.

17. Isolation is the greatest enemy to information.

18. There’s no sense in applying sanctions if big business isn’t interested.

19. Economic and hence, political progress for any country affects the USA through economic competition that threatens the market and jobs.

20. Any initiative is risky if it’s about unstable region, but you lose popularity fast if you are perceived as indecisive or weak in foreign policy.

21. Any trip abroad has to convey a strong message.

22. Direct military intrusion indicates weakness in your foreign policy. If it’s inescapable, involve as many allies as you can.

23. Don’t touch our military bases abroad!

24. Big debts open markets. No matter what, open national markets world-wide for American big business and remember — the markets, not Presidents, rule the world.

25. Tie your allies to international economic projects and make them pay most of the expenses.

26. Never talk about money in public — talk about democracy, human rights, liberal values and disarmament — people like it.

27. Move forward — transform Americans’ national and patriotic feelings into nationalistic ones (follow the French model) to get total support of your policy (see “Mind Control”).

28. Don’t pay too much attention to the CIA — all they have to do is to support you with appropriate information to justify your strategic political decisions - and nothing else.

29. Ignore the UN — Secretary General has no real power, but you can take advantage of such a thing as the UN peace-keeping if it corresponds with your interests - the US economic costs could be minimized. Besides, UN peacekeeping can promote a spirit of international accountability in solving a certain regional problem. Don’t forget to explain your strategy to the Congress - they don’t like the UN either. On the other hand, you have to manage an international crisis, if it threatens our national interests (start with strategic planning, check national security system for the adequate response, use propaganda to get domestic and international support, consult with big business and allies, start crisis negotiations if possible, use diplomacy (see below) and force or threat of force).

30. To reach global leadership you must have enough resources, national support and a well-calculated strategy (see also “Strategic planning”). As you already know, the US budget is financed by foreign lending. When the dollar goes down in foreign exchange markets, it’s supported by foreign central banks and you’re OK as long as Japan, Saudi Arabia and Germany have an interest in propping up the American economy and do not raise the price for financing America’s debt. The worst situation would be to lose support both at home and abroad.

5.2 What do you need Department of State for

The foreign policy of the United States is backed by a $ 13 trillion economy.

From 1947 until 1991, our foreign policy was characterized by the Cold War to stop the spread of Soviet communism. The Cold War was characterized by a lack of global wars but a persistence of regional wars, often fought between client states and proxies of the United States and Soviet Union. During this time, U.S. foreign policy objectives seeking to limit Soviet influence, involved the United States and its allies in the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the overthrow of the Iranian government, and diplomatic actions like the “opening” of China and NATO establishment.

Our foreign policy demonstrates constant inability to combine strategic military objectives and diplomatic and political objectives. This means an ineffective follow-up to military operations by being unable to determine diplomatic and political goals, resulting in unfavorable situations to either the United States or its allies. Examples include the absence of any treaties or objectives for post-war Germany and Europe during World War II, resulting in the Soviet occupation of most of Eastern Europe; the absence of diplomatic and political objectives to follow-up on military victory in Korean War resulting in ongoing preservation of 1953 status-quo; inadequately defined objectives for the Vietnam War, resulting in Communist take-over of the region; the failure to develop plans to rebuild and re-stabilize Iraq after the defeat of Saddam Hussein, leading to the ongoing destabilization of the surrounding region and huge expenses required by the United States itself.

What to do ? No independence for the State Department (and its Secretary) - it’s nothing but a “mail box” for your decisions. It has no mission and its duty is to monitor the world (people call it the “Department of Bad News”). Make it clear to the Secretary of State that he/she is not to respond to events and not to influence any politician abroad - the State Department has to follow the White House instructions only: don’t make unnecessary enemies and don’t push any initiatives until you are further instructed! Don’t send pointless cables to the White House Situation Room. Every time you brief the press - ask the White House staff what to say. Meet foreign leaders to make my message clear — nothing, absolutely nothing else! And do me a favor – ask Mrs. Rice, the so-called “the most influential woman in the world” what is Stabilization and Reconstruction Office for ? what Pentagon guys are doing there ? who gave the money ? what the hell is going on in this damned Dept of State ? now they do Iraq or what ?

Besides, the State Department cannot be taken seriously as it has no natural domestic constituency like, say, Department of Defense, which can call on defense contractors for support. It has negative constituents instead — people who oppose US foreign policy. Congress has no respect for it and looks upon it as an advocate of unpopular and costly foreign involvement. The best thing to do is to leave ceremonial functions to the Secretary of State, sending the person overseas mostly to VIP funerals.

(President George W. Bush is doing absolutely the right thing by sending his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on endless and countless visits abroad. If Ms. Rice read these pages, she would have understood that the President keeps her far away from the White House because he does not need her and is angry — most probably because of her own presidential ambitions — he sees his brother in the Oval Office.)

After Madeleine Albright, Clinton’s Secretary of State, elected international criminal Kofi Annan to be UN Secretary General, a President has no choice but to stay far away from the State Dept. If you still hesitate, read this pearl of foreign policy making: “Kofi Annan… he seemed born for leadership. Annan … clearly the most qualified person. No one, from any continent was more knowledgeable or better prepared” (M. Albright, Madam Secretary, 2003).

A few words about your National Security Council staff. You take a risk by using them for secret operations because in such cases you don’t have congressional and public support. If the operation is exposed, you face huge political problems. So before you start, do some strategic planning on future consequences and design counter-measures.

5.3 World Domination

Securing the top position requires :

- economic domination

- military power — pre-emptive war or blackmail by war (seeking domination requires an inevitable increase in the military budget)

- a cultural and media invasion

- special operations to influence or neutralize leaders with negative attitude

To keep America on top, we would have to prevent cooperation and coalitions between:

China and Africa

Shi’ia and Sunni Muslims

Russia, Germany, and France

Venezuela and Cuba

Their trade agreements and alliances will change the geopolitical situation.

The US seems to have been responding to events rather than anticipating them, which means that until now it has had no global international plan. Watch where the “vectors of force” are directed and you’ll break their strategic plans.

Don’t listen to experts - crude oil world resources will be finished by the middle of the century. Get total control over the world oil market by force (Iraq and Iran) and take care of the weapons market knock out Russia and restrain China (restrict their military research activity - Chinese nuclear and other WMD had better be our top priority in the next 20 years).

 

In most important world regions keep the balance by supporting the country which follows the leader:

 

In Europe — support Britain to balance Germany. You rule Europe if you rule the Persian Gulf. You rule the world if you rule Europe, and that’s why you have to keep NATO by all means to block the military independence of Europe (Germany). And watch Russia — it’s still highly militarized and holds Europe a hostage.

In East Asia - support Japan, Russia and Taiwan to balance China.

In South Asia support Pakistan to balance India.

In Latin America — support Argentina to balance Brazil.

Our country is considered to be a superpower, though European Union, China, Russia and India have good potential of achieving the same status. They all have large populations, growing military strength, economic potential and influence in international affairs. We are superpower, but we have to admit that it does not mean that the world is unipolar – at present it’s a unipolar system with one superpower and several rivals, major powers.

China. As one of five permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power, China possesses influence in world politics. It’s gradually increasing its influence in areas which are traditionally dominated by the West due to non-ideological approach to foreign affairs and offer of no-strings-attached assistance, which thus presents an alternative for seeking foreign aid and potential allies. China is the second largest consumer of petroleum products after USA, and the Middle East is a strategically important region as it not only possesses vast oil reserves, but large portions of its population are opposed to the States. At the same time these nations are keen to diversify their customer base away from overdependence on the Western market. China has other strategic interests there and this is manifested in its security relationships with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran, which entail WMD and ballistic missile cooperation – direct threat to American aircraft carriers. These three countries are pivotal states in the region and they already view China as alternate source of security and as a counterbalance to American power.

China is intent upon establishing a preeminent sphere of influence in Southeast Asia and is taking steps to form a political, economic and security bloc with ASEAN countries. In 2006 China hosted the heads of states of 48 African countries in Beijing’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit and now African leaders regularly cite China as an ideal development model for their countries. Then comes South America – during a visit to Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Cuba in 2004, President Hu Jintao announced $100 billion worth of investment over the next 10 years. Besides, China is expanding its military-to-military contacts by training Latin American military personnel.

China’s foreign exchange reserves reached $1 trillion becoming the largest in the world. This country is the world’s second biggest spender on research and development and currently has an estimated 926,000 researches , second in number only to the 1.3 million in the United States.

India. India’s strength lies in its demographics – more than 50% of its population is under 25.

India has been pressing for permanent membership of the UN Security Council but without veto ability (it has received backing from the UK, France and Russia while China and USA opposed). India is everybody’s friend, including EU, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Arab World, China and Israel. India is a good balance for China and it’s a question of the world’s stability. The economy of India is currently the world’s largest after the USA, China and Japan. India possesses nuclear weapons, but it’s not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on grounds of security concerns and that India condemns the Treaty as discriminatory.

Russia. Russia is both energy and nuclear superpower with fast-growing economy and it’s not very far from achieving superpower status. It’s the number 2 military power in the world , second only to the United States. Russia produced the world’s most powerful conventional bomb and the world’s most advanced anti-ballistic missile system.

Brazil. Agricultural and oil superpower with one of the largest defense budgets and armed forces in the world.

 

The US has to create and support the most attractive (stable and profitable) image for foreign investors against the background of some other countries and regimes. A credible world disorder strategy would seem appropriate for that (and once you get Iraq’s oil and Iran’s natural gas, establish a sufficiently stable environment there for American big business).

Foreign Policy Top Secret— the “Democracy Trick”

It’s all about natural resources and raw materials.

General scheme:

choose the target country

start war or “push” opposition to launch a coup

bring in “liberal values”

help to move oil and gas into private hands

help to create an “open economy” and “open market”

become the only (the biggest) customer and stockholder

OIL RESERVES BY COUNTRY 2007 ( in billions of barrels)

1. Saudi Arabia 260

2. Canada 179

3. Iran 136

4. Iraq 115

5. Kuwait 99

6. United Arab Emirates 97

7. Venezuela 80

8. Russia 60

9. Libya 41.5

10. Nigeria 36.2

11. USA 21

12. Mexico 12

 

NATURAL GAS RESERVES 2007 (in billion m3)

1. Russia 47,570

2. Iran 26,620

3. Qatar 25,770

4. United Arab Emirates 6,006

5. USA 5,451

6. Algeria 5,000

7. Nigeria 4,984

8. Venezuela 4,276

9. Iraq 3,115

10. Indonesia 2,760

11. China 2,350

12. Malaysia 2,124

National security strategy is dead if we legally allow war crimes.

 

5.4 Diplomacy

Diplomacy is, first, the art and practice of, first, political espionage, second, conducting negotiations between representatives of groups and states. It usually refers to international diplomacy, the conduct of internatioal relations through the intercession of professional diplomats and spies with regard to issues of peace-making, trade, war, economics and culture. Diplomacy can be defined as taking responsibility for getting your own need in a way that preserves the dignity of others. It includes open inoffensive communication (tricks, too), flexibility, specific wording, a positive approach, being nonjudgmental an demonstrating a relaxed manner both verbally and nonverbally. The key mechanism of diplomacy is to achieve your goals without evoking hostility of other interested parties.

Diplomacy serves to maintain smooth relations between states and resolve disputes. The goal of American diplomacy is to further our interests worldwide, safeguard our independence and security and to seek maximum national advantage without using force and preferably without causing resentment. Actually, diplomacy is just a set of negotiating techniques by which we carry out the foreign policy. The United States has diplomatic relations with 155 countries, where Ambassadors are the personal representatives of the President as well as representatives of the Department of State. Each Ambassador heads a “country team” which includes a deputy chief of mission, heads of political, economic, consular and administrative sections; defense, agricultural and foreign commercial service attaches; a public affairs office; and, as needed, representatives of other agencies. As I’ve recommended above, the State Department should be removed from foreign policy making and re-positioned as a service station or a “mail box” for your decisions. It’s a tough job, but don’t you worry — you have a perfect tool which is called diplomatic appointment (a career diplomat is always a career bureaucrat).

Of course, the State Department wants to promote its own career senior foreign service officers to the Ambassadors’ positions. They say they have experience, but you don’t need them once you’ve got this handbook for your people. Besides, their careers are not dependent on you but on a self-run promotion system, and because many regard foreign policy as an endeavor that should not be subject to partisan politics, foreign service officers have a greater reputation for resisting your policies than your people — political appointees. Trust me, the Senate will be on your side if you start a large scale substitution.

One more thing — for specific diplomatic missions you can use your personal emissaries who are not subject to Senate confirmation. It allows you to transfer your proposals directly into negotiations without having to go through the State Department, and to have absolutely independent source of information. Usually, when presidents of states more or less equal in strength negotiate, they feel free to do whatever they feel is right. With the American President the situation must be different — your partners may disagree with you but they can’t ignore any of your statements. ( You can also use Track II diplomacy, in which non-officials (academic scholars, retired civil and military officials, public figures, social activists) engage in dialogue with the aim of conflict resolution or confidence-building, such as between the USA and China. Sometimes the exchanges (Track III) may have no connections with the government, or may even act in defiance of the government, like 2008 President Carter meeting with Hamas senior officials in Egypt).

You have to balance and bargain inside a triangle which includes big business, Congress and foreign leaders. Why big business? Because it will help you with economic problems caused by trends in the world economy. That’s not the end of your problems — you have to balance between something else. Modern diplomacy is a very complicated business — there’s actually little privacy and secrecy left because our beloved media penetrates everywhere. Your plans and initiatives are being published worldwide right before you meet your partner and then what? What are you going to do? Change your whole strategy? Your partner will draw conclusions and won’t say a word out of respect for the US President. A good thing is — you can manipulate the media to some extent and form a favorable international opinion. More important, you can speak to other leaders through the media rather than through private negotiations — everywhere worldwide they read every word of the White House statements. And if you think there are two of you in the Oval Office — you and you partner — that’s a mistake — there are four: you, your partner, the media and public opinion.

Congress is a smaller problem for your diplomacy. Here you have advantages in treaty making: first, you decide what treaties to negotiate, second you choose negotiators, third, you develop the negotiating strategy, fourth, you submit completed draft treaties for the Senate approval. And you, not the Senate (as Americans think), have the final power of ratification — once the Senate has approved the treaty, it does not become a law until you ratify it. If you decide to ratify a treaty the Senate has approved, an exchange of ratifications occur between the signatories. Then the treaty is promulgated (officially proclaimed to be a law) by you. At any time you can stop the treaty-making process, and after a treaty is ratified, you have the authority to terminate it without Senate consent. Once the US negotiators have agreed upon the terms of a treaty with a foreign government, you must decide whether to submit the draft to the Senate for consideration. If it appears that the Senate opposition to a treaty will make approval unlikely, you may decide to withdraw the treaty to avoid a visible political defeat.

If you decide to submit a treaty to the Senate for consideration, the Constitution requires that a two-thirds majority of Senators vote in favor of the treaty for it to be approved. The problem is, the Senate may attach amendments to a treaty that require you to re-negotiate its terms with other signatories before the Senate grants its approval, but you may decide not to re-negotiate. Yes, the Senate has to approve the treaty, but you can avoid the battle on Capitol Hill by signing executive agreements with foreign governments (like trade agreements, defense pacts, arms control agreements). They don’t require approval and give you greater flexibility in foreign policy. And you have one more important tool — an executive order that has the force of law without being approved by Congress. Most executive orders pertain to government officials and agencies, but they also may implement legislative statutes or help reinforce Constitution or treaties.

5.4. 1 “Golden” rules

1. Use secret visits (send the National Security Adviser) if the international problem is complex and important — in this way you don’t depend on media and public opinion. Afterwards you can talk, if it was a success.

2. If presidents like to drink with each other, they are ready to deal with each other.

3. Avoid negotiating on major issues at the end of the day, when your energy is low.

4. Negotiate smart, watch your initiatives. The more you tell about your position, the less your partner will tell you about himself, and the higher price you’ll pay. Diplomacy is all about money and the essence of any negotiations is the price range.

5. Any information should be exchanged as a part of a compromise and not merely given away.

6. Always talk less than necessary. Concentrate on facts and never tell other person about feelings (or your family and medical problems). Don’t interrupt others, try to understand what they really want and if they try to manipulate you. Also, resist giving in to interruptions until you have completed your thoughts – “Just a moment, I haven’t finished”. Use Taleyran approximation – if it’s difficult for you to speak up, try to make just one diplomatic statement. If they press you, insist on moving this questions to experts. And use indirect language such as “It looks like” or “You see situation from a very special angle”.

7. No negative emotions - strong emotions indicate weak nerves. Realize that there might be other issues motivating the other person’s behavior and never take things personally.

8. Stop self-limiting behaviors, such as smiling too much, nodding too much, tilting your head or dropping your eyes in response to other person’s gaze. Speak I normal conversational volume, don’t scream and don’t whisper, either, as you won’t be taken seriously.

9. Take a problem-solving approach to conflict, and try to see the other person as your collaborator rather than your opposition. You’d better postpone negotiations than allow them to break down.

10. Fix all questions and don’t be in a rush to answer any of them.

11. The slower you talk, the more confident you are.

12. Never ask straight questions.

13. It’s important to know what questions and when you have to ask. Start with an “invitation” question that does not need a definite answer but opens up the discussion, like: “No matter what reporters say, we’ll start negotiating for arms control.” Proceed with “intelligence gathering” questions, like: “Are you going to abide by our last agreement on the withdrawal of military forces or do we have other options?” Go to “expertise” questions, like: “It’s 5000 soldiers, right? ”

There’s a difference between expertise and straight questions - straight question are like: “Will you sign the treaty?” and these have to be avoided because you’ll get no straight answer right away. Finish with a closing question, like: “I think that’s what we intend to sign? Next time we can start from here.” Or you can press your partner: “Let’s not lose this last opportunity, eh?”

14. Explain your negative attitude in a smart way: give half the information and continue, depending on your partner’s reaction. If you can’t accept his proposal, tell him that the experts may look into it again and come to agreement. If your partner is not a complete idiot he’ll understand his proposal is unacceptable (because the experts have already done all they could). But if he is an idiot, he’ll agree to “kill” his proposals by passing them to the experts.

You start to lose momentum if you start to defend yourself.

15. Stop (postpone) negotiations the moment you start to lose or you could end up in a total failure and that could be used by opposition back home.

16. If you bring ideology - try to win. If you bring national interests, try to find compromise. Be flexible — that’s a sign of strength, not weakness.

17. Don’t make aggressive statements for the media, no matter what.

18. Respect is half a victory, but you usually win when your partner is scared. Avoid open confrontation and respond to personal attacks with humor.

19. Watch the military experts - they are always ready to “push” you. No arms agreement can win ratification without backing from Joint Chiefs, because Congress needs and trusts their expertise, and their disapproval is a strong tool against you in case you ignore their advice. So, think three times before you appoint Joint Chiefs.

20. Take negotiations on the trade deficit very seriously — they often take you nowhere and have zero results as your partner wants you to change your attitude to him completely as well as your international economic policy, while you expect the same favor from him. You can influence one partner but you can’t very easily influence the international system.

21. After you come back home do some positive advertising through the media — in such a way you influence other presidents and future negotiations. If the negotiations resulted in a treaty, “sell” it to the Senate for approval.

22. Negotiation no-nos:

- don’t be confused if your partner threatens you — that means he needs your cooperation. Don’t enter into negotiation right away with high demands.

- don’t touch the toughest issues first. Don’t assume — that’s a sign of weakness.

- don’t hesitate to pause or take a break.

- never say “no” to your partner’s ideas — rather, pack them up in one “package” with your proposals. The Reykjavik American-Soviet summit (1986) on intermediate-range nuclear missiles is a perfect example of a “package”. The U.S. President Reagan wanted to include human rights, Jewish immigration and Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in the talks. The USSR President Michail Gorbachev said “no”, arms control only. Then Gorbachev attacked – he wanted to put American Strategic Defense Initiative (“Star Wars”) in one “package” with eliminating intermediate-range nuclear forces in Europe and reducing NATO tactical weapons and Warsaw Pact conventional forces. Reagan kissed him “good-bye”.

　

5.4.2 Negotiations Procedure

I. Preparation

1. Write a plan.

2. Define your objectives.

3. Identify issues that are open to compromise and those that are not.

4. Conduct research for information to support your objectives and have information to undermine your partner’s position; think what information is available to your partner (State and Defense Departments will help you with that; not the CIA).

5. Find out how your partner negotiates with other leaders (he might have a “rabbit in a hat” for you).

6. Consult with members of a previous negotiating team about his style, strong and weak points.

7. Check the current balance of power. Attention: if you start multilateral negotiation you have to know what are the conflicts or allegiances between other partners. If they are divided into groups, identify who has the power to make a decision on behalf of a group.

8. Use game theory if you are intending to cooperate. Game theory is a theoretical analysis of the decision-making process taken by two or more players who are in conflict. You must actually estimate any possible strategies of the players who have to make decisions without knowledge of what other players are planning. Each player’s strategy, once undertaken, will affect the others. Game theory is often illustrated by the “prisoners dilemma” paradigm. It supposes that two men have been arrested on a suspicion of committing a crime together and are being held in separate cells. There is not enough evidence to prosecute unless one confesses and implicates the other. Both of them know this but cannot talk to each other. The dilemma is that the best outcome, not being convicted, is only available if they each trust the other not to implicate him. If X decides to trust Y, but Y fears X may not be trustworthy, Y may confess to get a lesser sentence; X then gets a worse one. The best solution to this dilemma is for both to cooperate, to minimize the worst that can happen, rather than trying for the outcome that is maximum. This is called the minimax strategy and it’s classified as being the most probable outcome.

II. Conducting negotiations

Never conduct negotiations before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m.

First of all, you have to decide whether you want to speak first or to respond to your partner’s proposal. There’s an advantage in letting your partner make the opening proposal as it might be much more beneficial for you than you suspect.

Then:

a) put forward a proposal (with as little emotion as possible). You have to make your initial offer-demand high and compromise from that point onward. Your partner will understand perfectly well it’s too much, so make your initial demand greater than you expect to receive, and offer less than you are expected to give. (For the same reason feel free to reject the first proposal received.) While talking further, leave yourself room for maneuvering, presenting your proposals, and don’t try to pin down your partner to a fixed position too soon, because he needs room to maneuver, too. Make a final offer when the atmosphere is most cooperative.

b) respond to proposals in a smart way (again, no emotions). Never take the first offer – if you take it, your adversary may feel there is something wrong with it or he didn’t get the best deal.Capture any similarities on both sides. Don’t hesitate to make conditional counter-offers: “If you do this, we’ll do that.” Cut the unexpected introduction of new issues and follow strictly a concise step-by-step agenda. Probe your partner’s attitudes: “What would you say if we both lower our demands?” but indicate that every concession you make is a major loss to you. Ask as many questions as you want — the more information you have, the more you control negotiation. To think over and re-design your strategy, ask for a break as many times as it’s acceptable. Summarize your partner’s proposals.

c) move towards a bargain. You must know perfectly well the response to each of your points before you open your mouth. If your aides can’t help you, you have the wrong aides and you even might be a wrong president. Offer the lowest price first, as you may not need to go any further. Negotiate a “package,” don’t concentrate on one demand and link other, smaller demands to it. While making a final offer look at the other party and check the body language (see below), your team members must confirm by body language that this is your final offer. It’s OK to press the partner by emphasizing the need to reach agreement, like: “We know our nations are waiting to see the treaty signed.” (If your partner looks at his watch, it means he wants to end the talk.) If you see you are approaching a dead end, ask your partner to talk off the record, in private, but if you talk in private, you have to keep your word no matter what.

Sometimes negotiations (as in the Israel-Palestine case) run into serious problems and breakdowns. Strong diplomats never say “never” and never leave forever, and always are ready to come back and agree right away on new dates to continue talks, as though a breakdown is just one more pressure trick. The best thing to do is to re-establish communications as soon as possible and you have to do this through your team member who has good connections and influence with other party. Act fast, especially if the consequences of “no deal” would be worse than the last deal that was on the table. If the situation is not improving, you have nothing else but to use a mediator. I do not recommend you to take responsibility as mediator or to use a mediator for your diplomatic needs. International experience shows that these old and “experienced” people usually make the situation worse, like bringing in a lawyer — even if the situation looks better for the next couple of years. But if you have no choice and your partner, and your aides insist on using a mediator to resolve the situation you have to think it over … and agree.

Mediation is the process in which deadlocked parties consider the suggestions of a third party, agreed upon in advance, but are not bound to accept the mediator’s recommendations. The mediator works as a referee between the negotiating parties and tries to find common ground among their agendas. Once some common ground is established, the mediator can begin to look for mutually acceptable ways out of the deadlock. A mediator between presidents has to be a president himself, very influential, and well informed on the situation to be able to make effective recommendations.

He has to:

a) consider the situation from all angles

b) help both parties to understand each other better

c) help the parties to create new approaches

d) suggest a solution, give alternatives

But if the two sides’ demands are too far apart, no outside party can bring them together at all. ( Often a mediator has to make multiple trips between two parties, who do not talk directly, and it’s called shuttle diplomacy. Usually, two parties do not formally recognize each other, but still want to negotiate. The term became widespread following Henry Kissinger’s term as National Security Advisor and then, as the United States Secretary of State (in 1973-1977), when he participated in shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East and China).

III. Closing negotiation

That’s the most important part, a final mutual agreement or disagreement, a test for your foreign policy making strategy and tactics and personally for you, your power and your image. Any treaty you sign with foreign leaders, if it meets American interests, is not your personal success, but that of the nation. There are three options:

a) the agreement with all conditions is acceptable to both parties

b) the agreement is acceptable to one party only

c) the agreement is unacceptable for both parties

5.4.3 Diplomatic tricks

Tricks in diplomacy are usually used to distract your hard working team, shift the emphasis of the negotiation in order to shape the deal on terms of your adversary or manipulate your team into closing negotiation and accept terms you don’t really like. And the tricks are:

“Leap” - your adversary is losing and starts “jumping” from one point to another

“Pile” - your adversary “piles up” problems, tries to provoke a chaotic discussion or stop negotiations

“Empty chair” - a day or two before negotiations start your adversary informs you that he’s not ready yet, trying to press you (or he wants to change location)

“Diplomatic illness” – the practice of feigning illness to avoid participation in negotiations and at the same time to avoid giving formal offense.

“Deaf” - your adversary keeps asking questions instead of answering yours

“Provocation” — your adversary doubts your team’s professional level and your ability to negotiate

“Busy guy” — your adversary breaks negotiation for an hour or two pretending he has to do some very important business (or that he got a very important call).

“Mirror” - it’s a very interesting “programming” trick. The technology is simple: you try to “mirror” your adversary’s style and behavior, adopt a similar posture, use his gestures, and follow the speed of his speech. First, he will like it subconsciously and will be more open to you. Second, you’ll understand better his way of thinking.

“Sandwich” - pressure (often — military) — negotiations — pressure

“Show” - using certain arguments your adversary appeals to your emotions

“Circle” - a very sophisticated trick: your adversary tries to “push” his proposal in different variants and finally comes back to his initial variant, trying to convince you that’s the best choice

“Carrot and stick” - threat (blackmail) plus promises (money). The guy could blackmail you also by demanding to set a deadline

“Student” - your adversary talks too much about the details, asking a lot of minor questions, trying to make you nervous and make mistakes

“Donkey” – your adversary declines the ofer to speak frst

“Ball” - encourage your adversary if he’s looking for “global decisions” and he’ll do a lot of minor favors

“Rubber” - delay, if you can’t predict the result, and press your adversary by delaying the answer

“Last train” - you can press your adversary by an ultimatum right before negotiations are over, if he really is interested in some result. “Spice” the ultimatum with some important reasons and give your adversary a choice of variants.

You can also leak opposing demands to the media (be careful with this one. Do not betray diplomatic trust by talking about secret deals or demands that actually have been mentioned). You may also escalate your demands during negotiation and manipulate public opinion to line up behind your demands.

Diplomatic Double Talk

Statement Meaning

 

We are disappointed. We got nothing.

Situation disturbs us. It’s unacceptable no matter what.

There are still differences between There are huge differences.

our approaches to the problem .

We can’t accept this deal. This means trouble.

We reserve the right to use any means

to prevent further worsening of the situation. This means war.

Discussion helped us to understand each

other better. We’ve wasted our time.

We don’t understand your attitude. Stop it immediately.

I’m trying to understand your position. Understand me too, idiot!

If I’ve understood you correctly, you don’t agree. Do you have any other option?

We both will pay a very high price if we don’t

reach agreement. Yes, that’s a threat!