Case of Civil War: Don’t Make Pakistan Another Myanmar

By Sajjad Shaukat

Pakistan’s drastic situation has resemblance with Myanmar (Former Burma), having all the elements for civil war.

Myanmar’s Gen. Min Aung Hlaing who seized power on February 1, last year after the military toppled the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar’s military junta is now facing fierce resistance from various joint ethnic groups.

In fact, by bringing the political battles into our bedrooms, social media has made it much difficult for various entities to speak lies and to hide information.

After his ouster, former Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) had started a mass movement against PDM-an alliance of the government led by PM Shehbaz Sharif-leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N).

Addressing public rallies, the deposed Premier Khan almost repeated his same statements. Criticizing his rival politicians, the Pakistan Army and its army chief, using terms ‘establishment’ or ‘neutrals’, while targeting the US, Khan said that, a major conspiracy was carried out against his government and this country.

Khan also held the neutrals responsible for present political instability and severe economic crisis, and accused the ruling coalition of pitting him against Pakistan Army.

Sometimes, ex-PM Khan appreciated the army and sometimes, criticized it indirectly stating that the match was fixed—a foreign country [US] sent a threatening message-diplomatic cypher through Pakistan’s envoy.

The military spokesperson of ISPR, Maj-Gen. (Now Lt. Gen.) Babar Iftikhar rejected reports, indicating that no ‘conspiracy’ was made and no diplomatic ‘cypher’ was issued by a foreign country, as pointed out by PM Khan.

Earlier, Director General (DG) ISPR Maj-Gen. Iftikhar had acknowledged that the demarche was issued to the foreign country [US] over the use of undiplomatic language which tantamount to interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs.

Khan on June 25, 2022 challenged the coalition government’s amendments to the National Accountability Bureau Ordinance in the Supreme Court, contending that leaders of the PML-N and those of the PPP have legitimized corruption—as they have, themselves, got NRO.  Undoubtedly, there many cases have been closed.

Notably, in November 2020 when the PDM had launched a movement to topple the elected regime of PTI, addressing a PDM rally in Gujranwala via a video link from London, ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif accused army chief Bajwa and ISI chief Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed of rigging elections and toppling his government to install Imran Khan in his place.

When the Supreme Court disqualified the then PM Nawaz Sharif regarding the corruption charges, the deposed prime minister and his daughter Maryam Nawaz were, openly, criticising the Supreme Court and Army.

Now, PTI workers have been distorting Army’s image in such a way that general masses should forget the sacrifices and services of the armed forces such as the resettlement of the Internally Displaced Persons during the Swat and Malakand military operations, counter-insurgency operations, defeating the terrorists through successful military operations, restoration of peace in Karachi, Balochistan and other vulnerable regions of the country, including restoration of law and order on many occasions—during catastrophic periods—floods, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic, locusts’ attacks etc.—also giving a matching response to Indian forces at the Line of Control and to stop infiltration of terrorists inside Pakistan from Afghanistan. 

Regrettably, changing their political differences into political enmity, irresponsible entities of the PTI and the PDM are moving the country towards anarchy or civil war. 

When court’s verdict supports PTI, its leaders accept it, and when it favours PDM their leaders admire the same. Otherwise, if it is against them they disagree with the same.

It is noteworthy that during a meeting at Zardari House in Islamabad between PPP Co-chairmen Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, and a delegation from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQM-P)—an agreement was signed, and MQM-P decided to support the then opposition’s no-trust motion against PM Imran Khan.

In the past, taking note of the criminal activities of the MQM-P and its Indian connections, Rangers had taken action against this party.

It is of particular attention that the Pakistan Rangers Sindh and Police, during a joint intelligence-based operation in Karachi’s Liaquatabad Town on October 20, this year, arrested an Indian intelligence agency RAW’s trained—former activist of MQM-London involved in terrorism, extortion and killings and recovered arms and ammunition from his possession.

Under Bajwa’s leadership Rangers restored peace in Karachi. But, as to why MQM-P was compromised by the neutrals through Zardari.

Although former army chiefs played their role in changing or toppling the civilian regimes, yet question arises as to who organised the PDM alliance and who brought back the PML-N-led government, setting aside their corruption charges—the Dawn Leaks—a futile attempt by Sharif to blame the armed forces of Pakistan—while during his tenure-the leader of the neutrals—the said government was removed by availing the Supreme Court’s verdict—and ignoring Zardari’s role in the Memogate.

PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari on June 16, 2015 had warned army to “separate itself from politics and not interfere in matters out of its domain…to refrain from character assassination of political parties…If you do not stop, I will come out with a list of accused generals since Pakistan’s creation.”

Recently, renowned politician Ijaz Ul Haq disclosed that during the PTI government, current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif used to hide in the trunk of his spokesperson Malik Ahmad Khan’s car to secretly meet Army Chief and seek NRO.

Surprisingly, Federal Information Minister Maryam Aurangzeb (of PML-N) on June 3, 2022 acknowledged that Pakistan’s civil and military entities were negotiating a peace deal with the banned militant outfit-the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Sources suggest that TTP which conducted many terror attacks in Pakistan had put forward several uncompromised demands. Therefore, the talks bore no concrete outcomes. However, question arises—could without the awareness of Gen. Bajwa, these negotiations be held.

Meanwhile, PM Shehbaz rebuffed the idea of early elections—before the end of constitutional term—the general elections are still 11 months away.

During a joint press conference on October 27, 2022, DG ISPR Lt.Gen. Babar Iftikhar and Director General (DG) Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt. Gen. Nadeem Anjum said that the chief of army staff has been accused of creating chaotic situation—the Pakistan Army was also targeted.

DG ISPR stated that ARY CEO Salman Iqbal should be brought back to Pakistan and made part of the probe into Arshad Sharif’s death who was shot dead in Kenya by police.

In a direct jibe at Imran Khan, Lt. Gen. Anjum said that the military was called “neutral and an animal” as they refused to be part of an “illegal” decision.

DG ISI pointed out that the members of his agency were deliberately removed from the inquiry committee, made in connection with Sharif’s assassination. A two member team went to the Kenyan capital Nairobi. Now, the government appointed a retired judge, Abdul Shakoor Paracha, as chairman of a three-member inquiry commission in this connection. But the judge refused to participate in the commission.

But, the government formed another commission, while a retired judge, Abdul Shakoor Paracha, as chairman of a three-member inquiry retired chief justice of Lahore High Court refused to become its member. However, it shows confusion of the present regime. 

Meanwhile, the mother of martyred journalist Sharif who rejected these inquiry commissions, mentioned that she could not explain in words, the support she received from ARY Digital Network and its CEO Salman Iqbal who supported me a lot and tried his level best to protect Arshad Sharif.

In his statement on Twitter on October 29, 2022 after Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah levelled baseless allegations against him, and while hinting about the statements of DG ISPR’s joint press conference, CEO ARY Salman Iqbal has called for an independent investigation overseen by the UN Human Rights Office into the slain senior journalist Arshad Sharif.

He explained: “I am [shocked] by the brutal killing of Arshad Sharif…It is not easy to be a journalist in Pakistan. All of us face various threats…the threats to Arshad’s life were legitimate. He repeatedly appealed in writing to all relevant sectors of government for his protection. Instead, he was targeted with cases of sedition, multiple FIRS and arrest warrants, which compelled him to leave Pakistan.” Iqbal condemned the smear campaign against him by the incumbent government—and the persecution of journalists by the PML-N government.

Nevertheless, on the same day in a combined press conference, PTI top leaders gave reply to the matters related to joint press conference of the DG ISPR and DG ISI.

Shah Mahmood Qureshi stated: “A new Pandora’s box has been opened…We did not create political instability…We are presenting a democratic solution…elections…if the military was apolitical, it should not have held this press conference at all…If the cypher is untrue, why hasn’t it been probed?’’

Fawad Chaudhry indicated that along with the respect of the institutions, it was also important to respect the people’s choices.

Now, PTI started the long march (Haqeeqi Azadi March) to Islamabad on October 28, this year from Lahore. Ex-Premier Imran Khan is leading the caravan to Islamabad, which is expected to arrive in Islamabad in few days. Khan’s supporters from other cities are also reaching Islamabad.

Addressing the people at various places, Khan repeatedly remarked: “This [long march] is not for politics or personal gain, or to topple the government…this is to bring genuine freedom to the country…it is a war for freedom from these thieves [PDM leaders] that have been imposed over us by their handlers and facilitators…our decisions should not be made in Washington or Britain, but in Pakistan for the people of Pakistan…Today, I appeal to the entire nation that you will have to decide between becoming a free country or serving these thieves.”

But, Minister for Interior Rana Sanaullah repeatedly warned Khan that the government will deal with long march participants with an iron hand.

The interior ministry has deployed 30,000 police, rangers, and paramilitary troops; including policemen from Sindh province—also placed hundreds of containers into Islamabad’s entry points. In this regard, Rana Sanaullah stated that the federal government will surely call the army under to deal with the participants of the long march rally.

Islamabad High Court will decide the petition of PTI, seeking permission to stage sit-in in the capital.

It is mentionable that some foreign intelligence agencies such as American CIA, Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad could also avail the opportunity of current long march by further widening the gulf between Army and PDM on one side and the PTI supporters on the other, as it is the only nuclear country in the Islamic World. Hence, these agencies want to destabilize it. These agencies can also conduct subversive act or suicide attack on the long march participants during their journey or when they reach Islamabad—can also cause clashes between PTI followers and the security forces in Islamabad. During the recent press conference, DG ISPR has also indicated third party’s role.

Notably, Gen. Bajwa made it clear recently that he would retire and would not seek another extension in his tenure—ending on November 29, this year—reportedly remarked that from now onwards Pakistan military will not play any role in the country’s politics and the military has decided to remain “apolitical”.

Nonetheless, in case of clashes between the PTI supporters and security forces at Islamabad, PTI workers will begin protest rallies in country’s various cities. And in the capital, in case of the government’s failure to cope with the massive crowds of the PTI, army can be in action and there could be larger casualties of the PTI protesters which also include ladies and children. In such a drastic scenario, martial law may be imposed and civil war may start in many cities of the country, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province where in former tribal areas, people possess heavy weapons and arms. These people can target the army as well as their families. During the journey of long march, Khan can also be killed in the way or in Islamabad as he, himself, has repeatedly indicated, while foreign involvement cannot be neglected.

Imran Khan and some analysts opine that Pakistan will become Sri Lanka which has been facing severe political unrest and multiple economic crises after it was declared default.

I pray that this civil war-like phenomenon must not happen.

Speaking on the floor of the National Assembly, Defence Minister Khawaja Muhamma Asif stated on October 19, 2022 that mistakes were committed by all, including the politicians, judiciary and army, and responsibility now rests with all the institutions, including politicians to find a solution to the threats faced by the state.

During the recent combined press conference, DG ISPR Lt. Gen. Iftikhar also said: “We have been washing the mistakes of the past…We can make mistakes but we can’t be traitors or conspirers.”

Undoubtedly, Gen. Bajwa has a strong sense of patriotism. His statement that army will not take part in politics should be taken positively.

At this critical hour, serious talks must be held between the government led by PM Shehbaz and the PTI, while the ruling alliance must also announce early elections after settling various issues with the PTI such as caretaker setup, Khan’s demand to change the chief election commissioner etc. Khan also needs compromise. Here, question also arises that after the general elections; defeated political entity can accuse the winning entity of rigging in the polls and can launch a movement against the new elected government across the country or on provincial level. So, current extreme situation can be created again.  

I request these rival politicians and particularly chief of the neutrals to avoid making Pakistan another Myanmar. No doubt is successfully coping with internal and external threats to the integrity of the country—its chief must play his role in defusing the present situation.

While the government and the opposition leaders as well as all other segments of society must show selfless national unity to pull the country out of the ongoing grave crises. 

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

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