Who are the people most likely to believe conspiracy theories?

Who are the people most likely to believe conspiracy theories? Scientific American Magazine published an article on this subject.

The article is far too long, even for a summary to do it justice, but I’ll quote a few tidbits later in this post.

First, the question, what is a conspiracy theory? Gathering several definitions from the Internet, I submit this: A conspiracy theory is a heretofore secret explanation for a claimed event or situation when other explanations are more probable or unknown.

Four factors are common to conspiracy theories:

1. There is an event or situation which may or may not be real or known.
2. If the event is real, it may be explainable by probable causes, which the conspiracy theory rejects.
3. The explanation uncovers a secret known only to a special group.
4. The believers in conspiracy theories wish not only to know the explanation but wish the explanation to be a pejorative about some person or group.

The most pervasive, long-lasting, and influential of all conspiracy theories are called “religions.” Less stable, though no less powerful, while in existence, are “cults.”

The attraction of a conspiracy theory, i.e., a religion or cult, lies in believers being part of an “in” group that knows the “truth” as presented by the theory.

Consider Judaism, which explains the universe’s existence as coming from the miraculous hand of one God rather than from universal evolution.

Christianity further explains this by adding Christ and more detailed sub-explanations and miracles. As far as I know, other religions tend to explain the universe in related manners.

A cult is a miniature version of a religion, generally having a living leader assume the role of a god.

A conservative is a person who adheres to traditional methods or views. A pious person is most devoutly religious, that is, adheres most powerfully to the traditional practices or views of the religion (or cult).

Thus, those identified with conservatism are most predisposed to believe conspiracy theories and to profess extreme religiousness and patriotism.

The extremes of those beliefs often include, or perhaps rely on, exclusion, the notion that those who are not part of our club are inferior. The people who are the most pious, most conservative, and most involved in their exclusive group tend most to believe conspiracy theories about those who are not part of the group.

And that is the definition of bigotry.

The members of the Ku Klux Klan would go to church Sunday morning, hang a black man Sunday afternoon, and feel no remorse.

They are the people who believed they were patriots when they attacked Congress on January 6, and they still believe Donald Trump’s lies. His power comes as a hate monger who speaks to their fears and hatreds of those who aren’t in “the club.”

A few excerpts:

People Drawn to Conspiracy Theories Share a Cluster of Psychological Features
Baseless theories threaten our safety and democracy. It turns out that specific emotions make people prone to such thinking, By Melinda Wenner Moyer, March 1, 2019

Stephan Lewandowsky was deep in denial. Nearly 10 years ago the cognitive scientist threw himself into a study of why some people refuse to accept the overwhelming evidence that the planet is warming, and humans are responsible.

As he delved into this climate change denialism, Lewandowsky discovered that many of the naysayers also believed in outlandish plots, such as the idea that the Apollo moon landing was a hoax created by the American government.

Lewandowsky’s findings brought these conspiracy theorists out of the woodwork. Offended by his claims, they criticized his integrity online and demanded that he be fired.

Lewandowsky discovered that his critics—in response to his assertions about their conspiratorial tendencies—were actually spreading new conspiracy theories about him.

These people accused him and his colleagues of faking survey responses and of conducting the research without ethical approval. When his personal website crashed, one blogger accused him of intentionally blocking critics from seeing it. None of it was true.

The ranting even included a death threat, and calls and e-mails to his university became so vicious that the administrative staff who fielded them asked their managers for help. 

The dangerous consequences of the conspiratorial perspective—the idea that people or groups are colluding in hidden ways to produce a particular outcome—have become painfully clear.

The belief that the coronavirus pandemic is an elaborate hoaxdesigned to prevent the reelection of Donald Trump has incited some Americans to forgo important public health recommendations, costing lives.

The gunman who shot and killed 11 people and injured six others in a Pittsburgh synagogue in October 2018 justified his attack by claiming that Jewish people were stealthily supporting illegal immigrants.

A conspiracy theory positing that high-ranking Democratic Party officials were part of a child sex ring involving several Washington, D.C.–area restaurants incited one believer to fire an assault weapon inside a pizzeria. 

When bombs were sent to prominent Democrats and Trump critics, as well as CNN, in October 2018, a number of high-profile conservatives quickly suggested that the explosives were really a “false flag,” a fake attack orchestrated by Democrats to mobilize their supporters during the U.S. midterm elections.

Donald Trump has suggested, among other things, that the father of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas helped to assassinate President John F. Kennedy and that Democrats funded the same migrant caravan traveling from Honduras to the U.S. that worried the Pittsburgh synagogue shooter.

Feelings of anxiety make people think more conspiratorially. Such feelings, along with a sense of disenfranchisement, currently grip many Americans.

A conspiracy theory can provide comfort by identifying a convenient scapegoat and thereby making the world seem more straightforward and controllable.

“People can assume that if these bad guys weren’t there, then everything would be fine, whereas if you don’t believe in a conspiracy theory, then you just have to say terrible things happen randomly.”

Conspiracy theorists believe plots are behind many situations. Some hold that the Apollo moon landing was fakedothers that the White House forced Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy to retire.

Others claim that Trump slogans on a mail bomber’s van were put there to frame Republicans. 

A national survey suggesting that 39 percent of Americans felt more anxious than they did a year ago, primarily about health, safety, finances, politics and relationships.

A 2017 report found that 63 percent of Americans were extremely worried about the future of the nation and that 59 percent considered that time the lowest point in U.S. history that they could remember.

Feeling alienated or unwanted seems to make conspiratorial thinking more attractive.

In 2017 Princeton University psychologists set up an experiment with trios of people. The researchers asked all participants to write two paragraphs describing themselves and then told them that their descriptions would be shared with the other two in their group, who would use that information to decide if they would work with the person in the future.

The “rejected” participants, feeling alienated, were more likely than the others to think the scenarios involved a coordinated conspiracy.

People who dislike the political party in power think more conspiratorially than those who support the controlling party. 

Conspiratorial thinking can incite individuals to behave in a way that makes them feel even worse. People who are presented with conspiracy theories about climate change—scientists are just chasing grant money, for instance—are less likely to vote.

People who believe vaccine conspiracy theories, for example, say they are less inclined to vaccinate their kids, which creates pockets of infectious disease that put entire communities at risk.

Individuals who want to improve their analytic thinking skills should ask three key questions when interpreting conspiracy claims.

One: What is your evidence? Two: What is your source for that evidence? Three: What is the reasoning that links your evidence back to the claim?

False conspiracy theories have several hallmarks. First, the theories include contradictions. For example, some deniers of climate change argue that there is no scientific consensus on the issue while framing themselves as heroes pushing back against established consensus.

Both cannot be true.

A second telltale sign is when a contention is based on shaky assumptions. Trump, for instance, claimed that millions of illegal immigrants cast ballots in the 2016 presidential election and were the reason he lost the popular vote. Beyond the complete lack of evidence for such voting, his assumption was that multitudes of such votes—if they existed—would have been for his Democratic opponent.

Yet past polls of unauthorized Hispanic immigrants suggest that many of them would have voted for a Republican candidateover a Democratic one.

A third sign that a claim is a far-fetched theory, rather than an actual conspiracy, is that those who support it interpret evidence against their theory as evidence for it.

When the van of the convicted mail bomber Cesar Sayoc was found in Florida plastered with Trump stickers, for instance, some individuals said this helped to prove that Democrats were really behind the bombs. 

Conspiracy theories are a human reaction to confusing times. If we look out for suspicious signatures and ask thoughtful questions about the stories we encounter, it is still possible to separate truth from lies.

It may not always be an easy task, but it is a crucial one for all of us.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
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