1Q 2011 GDP - not good news
Then advanced GDP estimate from BEA for the 1st quarter of 2011 released this morning was disappointing: a growth rate of just 1.8% annually. Everyone thought it would be low, around 2% (see estimates in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times). This compares to a rate of 3.1% in the 4th quarter of 2010. Here is how BEA describes the slowdown:
The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a sharp upturn in imports, a deceleration in PCE [personal consumption expenditures], a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports that were partly offset by a sharp upturn in private inventory investment.
In other words, more imports and less exports at the same time as slower consumer spending (probably due higher energy and food prices) and big cut backs on government stimulus. The good news was an increase in investment. Gross private domestic investment rose by 8.5% after falling 18.7% last quarter. The increase was powered by higher investment in software and equipment (up 11.6%). Investment in buildings – both commercial and residential — dropped.
One can hope that some of the increased investment was in intangible assets. But, of course, we don’t measure that in GDP. Yet.
Read more at The Intangible economy
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