US debt deal and its implications for China

I have an analysis of the US debt deal and its implications for China here. Its conclusion is:

‘First, slow US growth means weakness in what is still China’s second most important export market after the European Union.

‘Second, as the debt agreement rules out fiscal tools to expand the US economy, pressure will probably mount for “QE3″, that is a new round of quantitative easing. This would increase inflationary pressure in China and elsewhere.

‘Third, slow US growth, coupled with continued expansion in China, will bring forward the date at which China overtakes the United States to become the world’s largest economy – this is now likely to be in five to seven years compared to the ten-year period that was previously projected.’

John Ross is currently Visiting Professor at Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University, where he leads research on globalisation and on China and the international financial crisis.
Check out his blog: http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/ , or follow him on twitter @JohnRoss43

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