Probability Of Default For Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain And Italy

From NextBigFuture.com

The probability that Greece will default on its $345 billion in debt is near 100% according to credit default swap markets
 

After Greece, investors bet that Portugal would be the next member of the European Union to fall, with a default probability of 66%. For Ireland, that figure slips to 51%; the chances of Spain and Italy defaulting are 33% and 28% respectively, according to Markit.

These probabilities are calculated based on the current cost of buying protection over a period of years, typically five, versus the expected recovery rate.

Even if Greek and European officials can agree on deficit reduction measures, the bailout plans need to run a gauntlet of votes in 17 separate European parliaments.

Greece has only about €300 billion ($411 billion) in outstanding debt, believed to be mostly in the hands of European banks, adding all five countries’ debt together comes to €2.8 trillion ($3.8 trillion).

If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

See more and subscribe to NextBigFuture at NextBigFuture.com

Read more at Next Big Future