When Reality Sets In, Hope Turns To Fear! Moody’s Threatens To Downgrade U.S. AAA Rating, More Sovereign Wealth Funds Unwilling To Buy More U.S. Debt, WH Seeking More Taxes, & Deep Cuts Raise Questions About Morgan Stanley As Earnings Season Just Started…
InvestmentWatch
The Beginning is Near!
When water turns to ice, or vapor turns to water, we have what is referred to as a Phase Equilibria change. It can be slow or it can be instantaneous. Whichever occurs, a new and completely different state of reality then exists.
The markets are about to transition through such a Phase Equilibria. We have reached the End of the Beginning and a New Beginning is Near! Unfortunately the new beginning is the Beginning of the End of the Secular Bear Market Counter Rally. It isn’t imminent, but it is near!
Once complete, the Bear Market that started in 2000 in real terms, will resume even in nominal terms. The End of the Beginning of the Secular Bear Market has arrived and now the truly ugly part of the bear market emerges.
OLD PHASE: Recovery & Hope
Since the financial crisis of 2008 the US and world have been in the “Recovery and Hope” phase. This phase normally starts with Triage to “stop the bleeding”, then moves to Operations “to fix the problem”, then finally to the Recovery or ” convalescence ” stage. All perfectly normal, if the diagnosis of the problem was correct, the operation successful and there are no complications during the recovery.
Unfortunately, through monetary malpractice the doctors screwed things up!!
Every metric of good health and success is flashing that a dead economic body is being kept artificially alive, except for one measure… the stock and bond markets. These measures, which are now the financially engineered creations of 33 Liberty Street and modern Goldman Sachs algo computers, are no longer a measure of the health of the economy, nor main street America. Unfortunately, the perception is that they are and that the omnipotent doctors at the Federal Reserve have things under control.
The stark reality of the gravity of the situation, the serious of the malpractice, is about to realized.
NEW PHASE: Reality & Fear
Instead of the patient now heading home from a convalescence center, the patient is about to be pronounced dead, to a startled family who have been led to believe everything was ok. Reality is about to set in.
When Reality sets in, Hope Turns to Fear!
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