Why The US Will Underperform Europe Again In 2013, Or The Strangest Chart You'll See Today
It should come as no surprise that the relationship between the balance sheets of the world’s major central banks and risk assets in general are relatively closely correlated (that is not to say dependent to avoid the causation/correlation ‘out’). A great example is the tight coupling between the EURUSD exchange rate and the ECB and Fed balance sheets over the past few years – and just what the EURUSD (market) is implying about forward central bank action.
As Mark Faber has noted in the past though, the flood of liquidity from central bankers has the unintended consequence that they ‘don’t know’ where that money will sloosh next. 2012 saw European stocks dramatically outperform US stocks, despite the ‘unresolved issues’, and the chart below of lagged performance of US over European stocks relative to the Fed and ECB balance sheets, suggests that this ‘catch-up’ of Europe has considerably more legs going forward even as the Fed’s balance sheet is set to expand by $1trillion this year. A strange chart indeed…
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