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Pitched Currency War & USDollar Rejection

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By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com

Friend of gold Jim Sinclair, and executive to a mining firm with interests in Tanzania, put it so well. He captures the theme of this article when he said, “It is the constant drop in the dollar’s usage as a contract mechanism internationally. No one sees this but it is the Hammer of Thor on the head of the dollar.” The rejection of the USDollar in global trade will mean the end of the abused privilege in a currency turned toxic. Its rejection is the marquee event in the financial world for 2013, following isolation. It is unstoppable and all-encompassing, certain to have geopolitical consequences, as it alters the economic and financial landscape in harsh ways much like a band of violent marauders brandishing machetes alter the neckline of their victims. See the Tonton Macoute in Haiti. The greenback is cornered; it is done!

 

The central bankers and sovereign wealth fund managers are running scared. The Official Monetary & Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) is a forum of central banks, sovereign funds, financial policy makers, and market participants. It recently issued a report on the global monetary system, emphasizing the possibility of a major breakdown in international monetary relations as a result of the currency wars, which hinder productivity. It accepts that the present system is collapsing. It argues a formal role for gold is required to play in international finance. But they turn to the despised corrupt savage callous Intl Monetary Fund, and its broken currency vehicle, the discredited discarded SDR basket. They will be swept aside despite eyes partly open.

 

The opponents to financial hegemony have spent the last four years in planning a new order that can viably sustain the global trade system without a USDollar at its central role. On one side, foreign nations must avoid the toxic effect of the asset bubble USTreasury Bond as the core to their banking systems. On the other side, foreign nations must react to the accelerating threat to their national economies from both a uniform cost inflation effect and a rising currency effect that punishes strength, success, and prudence. The Competing Currency War has reached a new elevated fever pitch, with the major central banks delivering powerful damage to each other while defending themselves. The unintended consequences have been a predictable unfolding of events to the sound money gold crowd, with years of warning and even a label given to the conflict. It comes as an unwelcome surprise to the mainstream sheeple crowd, still entangled in the paper wealth corner. The process continues, the pathogenesis relentless as paper securities erode in value. The world is slowly coming to the realization that only a Gold Standard can cure the world of its financial cancer from metastasized paper insecurities. The contact of Silver will cleanse the hand that has held paper since 1971, when the era of modern chronic unsolvable financial crisis was born. That is, unsolvable without a primary role for Gold itself, the despised stable metal. Gold is the ultimate currency.

 

SHOCK YEAR 2013

So the Jackass call is that 2013 will see the USDollar finally isolated and put in a position for rejection. It might not suffer a sudden death, but it will be corralled after being identified as the toxic agent flowing within the global financial arteries. However, the quarantine will be conducted in an extraordinarily clever fashion. Since the United States and United Kingdom, with its loyal court of followers in Western Europe, control the global banking system, the sovereign bond system, and the FOREX currency system, even the commodity markets including Gold & Silver, the solution had to be loaded with innovation if not guile. The alternative to the USDollar as a solution had to be formulated and planned as a counter-attack, but done so outside the oversized pockets of strength where the Anglo bankers ply their trade and controls. As many trade partners have been public about their objectives, when two parties come together to conduct trade, no rational reason can dictate that the USDollar should be used as a vehicle to settle trade, when both parties are located halfway across the globe. The New York and London bankster crowd cannot dictate Gold’s new role, when their vaulted gold supplies are being vacated to points in Asia, when their vault contents are demanded in official accounts for return, when their past gold shipments have been contaminated with tungsten. These banksters are being outed as criminals.

 

The end to US & UK hegemony is coming. It will arrive like a grand lasso cast around the set of trade partners seeking a fair system. Their proffered solutions will be ignored, like the QE lunacy in the United States and the ESM lunacy in Europe, both discredited totally. The IMF will not play a role in the next chapter. The irony is thick and inescapable. If the Anglo bankers insist on NOT considering, using, and relying upon Gold as a currency of utmost validity, robustness, and strength, then the rest of the world will devise a system for trade settlement that will evolve toward gold itself. The settlement of trade will not therefore pass through either the banking system or the currency marts. The solution will come in global trade that no longer requires the USDollar, but rather a simpler system where value is perceived more clearly, where the two participants will transact as peers, where payments will not rely upon the big banks, where the ignored super currency Gold is the basis. The deceptions of paper-based IOUs will be averted. The corruption in the banker shell games will be cast aside. The USDollar will be isolated, ignored, shunned, then put to death by the Americans themselves during its uncontrollable fever.

 

THE KEY: NON-USDOLLAR TRADE

The grand hint to the end-around solution in search for a USDollar alternative has been in front of the nose for several years, dating back to the China-Brazil bilateral swap deal in 2005. Little attention has been given a long sequence of similar bilateral swap deals that have centered upon the Chinese Yuan for initiating and settling trade. Nation after nation have lined up with the Beijing leaders to conduct trade in something akin to a credit card account based in Yuan currency, which converges toward zero over time on balance. Trade is initiated by one side delivering goods. The swap facility is tapped. Trade goes in the other direction, and the swap facility is credited toward zero. Numerous nations have signed up with China on such bilateral swap facility deals that enable brisk trade, in essentially a barter framework. The word barter is never used, since it might upset the powerful banker groups that shuffle bonds and currencies like so much stained wampum and contaminated salt at the corrupted trading posts. With Russia, South Korea, Japan, Iran, India, and Australia onboard with Chinese Yuan swap deals, one must suspect that a critical mass of perhaps half of global trade is conducted outside the USDollar shadow. This is a growing critical mass that acts much like scattered pylons on which to place a new trading platform. The key is that the collection of bilateral trade conducted by China is no longer done in USDollars. The objections are openly stated, that nations do not find it obligatory to settle trade in a third-party currency like the USDollar, especially when the US central bank is flooding the system with USDollars of highly suspicious origin but with very certain negative ramifications on the value of nationally managed reserve systems. The other big more recent hint is that Turkey is serving as a test site for trade settlement in Gold. Ankara bazaars are providing Gold in giant quantities, used in satisfying trade payments. So far the sleep Anglo bankers consider it minor, and operating in the Iranian shadows. They are wrong.

 

An important dynamic must be made clear. In the past decades as nations engaged in trade, in particular with crude oil, the trade was settled in USDollars. Therefore nation after nation accumulated USTBonds in their surplus reserves account as part of banking systems. They followed the lead set forth by the Saudis as they managed the Petro-Dollar functions. The Saudis recycled their surplus funds into USTBonds, so as to keep the balance of FOREX currencies intact even as massive imbalances built up quickly over time. As a result, the entire world of major nations, the global producers and traders accumulated USTBonds within their banking systems. The norm became USTreasurys with which to build national banking systems. So the Saudi-led Petro-Dollar established global trade done in USDollar terms, even outside the energy market. In a sense, their reserves management as agreed upon between the USGovt and Saudi royals (King Fahd), induced the global trade participants to follow suit and create banking systems built upon USTBonds also. All that is changing, since the Chinese Yuan swap facilities have taken on critical mass globally. However, the final blow to the USDollar will come from standard non-energy trade being settled outside any US$-based terms. The practice is accelerating, initiated in Asia, but spreading westward fast, urged along with a giant push in response to the Iran trade sanctions. Every action brings about an equal and opposite reaction.

 

The crux of the non-US$ trade vehicle devised as a USDollar alternative will be the Gold Trade Note. It will enable peer-to-peer payments to be completed from direct account transfers independent of currency, and most importantly, not done through the narrow pipes and channels controlled by the bankers with their omnipresent SWIFT code system among the world of banks. The Gold Trade Note will act much like a Letter of Credit, serve as a short-term bill, and maybe even push aside the near 0% short-term USTreasury Bills that litter the banking landscape. Any bond or bill earning almost no interest is veritable clutter. The zero bound USTreasurys open the door in a big way for replacement by a better vehicle. The new trade notes will involve posted gold as collateral, whose entire system for trade usage will bear a massive gold core that also will include silver and platinum, maybe other precious metals. The idea is to avoid the FOREX systems, to avoid the USDollar, and to avoid the banks as much as possible in a peer-to-peer system that can be executed between parties holding Blackberry devices or simple PC to complete the payments on transactions. If Gold is ignored by the corrupt bankers, then Gold will be the center of the new trade system and the solution in providing a globally accepted USDollar alternative.

 

Do not be surprised to see the Chinese Yuan later as interchangeable with the Gold Trade Note. But first the Yuan must be convertible into the many major currencies actively traded in the world. Numerous reports have come in recent weeks that the Yuan currency will soon have a gold backing, yet unconfirmed. My expectation is for the Chinese Yuan eventually to be interchangeable with the Trade Note. That will signal its implicit gold backing. While many events and steps are not known, and many surprises will be thrust on stage, the guiding pathways are slowly coming to light.

 

CURRENCY WAR AMONG CENTRAL BANKS

The Competing Currency War has grown in intensity. The competitive devaluations of currencies is causing severe damage among the major players. National reserves are suffering loss, while growing in size to dangerous levels. Protection of export trade has become of paramount importance. Nations are speaking openly through their central banks about the distress and urgency of the worsening situation. Russia has directly identified the currency battles as war. Nations are acting in their best self-interest, and in the process defying other nations, rendering them harm. With Switzerland and Japan enduring the brunt of the currency wars, look for them to each arrive at the conclusion that a Gold Standard would eliminate many problems. They are important pivotal nations. Successful nations and safe haven nations are put at great risk, even punished by having their floating currency rise. Great distortions are occurring as the Euro is propped, the beneficiary of colossal USDollar swap facility influx in the $trillions. The nearly constant US DX currency index is a lie, a false soothing signal that all is well. In fact, the USDollar is seeing instability with several currencies within the index.

 

 

The list of nations undergoing active currency intervention is growing markedly. Currency manipulation actions are routine, each action inviting a reaction by other nations. It is not just Japan and the United States, the usual suspects. It is Luxembourg, Switzerland, South Korea, Sweden, Norway, and Brazil. Heck, even the venerable England has taken steps to create a Chinese Yuan swap facility. They do not wish to be left out when the Yuan becomes a more global currency, with full convertibility. London is aiding the path to a convertible Yuan. Who’d a thunk it? London wishes to remain a major trading center. Look for someday soon a Chinese Govt Bond auction denominated in Yuan, the offering managed by London banks. Such a development is not welcome news for New York, which must be seething with anger and flush with disgust. This is the more than a currency war, but rather a global currency tumult and transformation, with grand tectonic shifts, on the disruptive path to a return of the Gold Standard.

 

Some important events within the financial wars over control of money and determination of value is underway. Many details are analyzed in the January issue of the Gold & Currency Report for the Hat Trick Letter. Big disruptions are coming very soon to both the FOREX currency market and the Gold market. Gold price breakouts will occur in various currencies, but not in US$ terms, the defended bunker. The new dangerous phase of the competing currency war has the propped Euro keeping the US DX index up, since the Euro has an absurd overweight in the queer index (artifact of past era). The Gold price rise will come like a sudden burst of wind. The speculators who trade Gold based solely on the DXY index will not understand the processes going on behind the scenes. They will be greatly surprised and taken off guard by the poweful upward move in Gold when it arrives. Watch for the Swiss and Japan to knock on the door for entrance in the Eastern Alliance, which will produce the USDollar alternative. It requires a critical mass for success. The stress felt in these two nations will motivate their pursuit of the USDollar alternative solution. They are being seriously wounded by the fiat paper currency system with floating rates.

 

Russia spoke out viscerally on the growing global awareness of an open currency war. Events are not of a fresh war, but rather a climax. Russia’s central bank head Alexei Ulyukayev seems only recently aware of the battles among central bankers that have raged for a few years. The climax could result in a Gold Standard implemented in place, with the Anglo-Americans deposed. The practice of competitive devaluation has turned routine. All actions taken by individual nations invite quick reactions by affected partners. Conversely, the successful nations do not tolerate punishment with a higher exchange rate. A return to gold in a central role would provide reward instead of punishment. This is the currency war entering the final phase, where the Gold Standard could potentially emerge as the global solution. The returned imposition of the standard would enable successful nations to garner more gold as reward (see Norway, Switzerland), and punish sluggish wayward parasitic sclerotic socialist nations which run chronic trade deficits by sending them to the Third World. Recall the shattered objective made in 2009 by central bankers. Their vacant call was reiterating just three months ago, to refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies. No nation refrained, as it is total empty rhetoric. When pressured and under attack, individual nations will act in their own domestic best interests, to defend their industries, to fight to survive.

 

The world has NEVER seen so much direct currency intervention and protective action taken by central banks. History is being made. The currency tremors augur some truly historical events, with the return of the Gold Standard coming, although by indirect means via trade settlement. By consequence the FOREX currencies and their crumbling bond foundation will be indirectly declared ruined, toxic, and unworthy of widespread global usage as a monetary platform. Some important events highlight the Competing Currency War clashes:

 

  • Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega first dubbed a currency war in 2010 in open terms, engaging the richer nation. He must be credited with the initial challenges and confrontations of the major central bank powers.
  • Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker complained of a dangerously high Euro. Its 7% gain against the USDollar in the past six months poses a fresh threat to the EuroZone economy. The European Central Bank states that it is not prepared to favor a weaker currency.
  • Switzerland has been blocking the Franc appreciation against the Euro since September 2011. Their central bank balance sheet has gone over 70% of GDP, but will fail to achieve any success. Great losses await in the blowback.
  • The central bank of Norway (Norges Bank) has received pressures from the finance ministry, in reaction to a strong Krone currency. The ministry urges more accommodation, and not to continue conducting a tight fiscal policy. The Krone has been rising due to a responsible government, and long successful North Sea oil project with about $1.6 trillion held in sovereign wealth funds.
  • The central bank of Sweden wishes to execute a rate cut in order to avert a stronger Krona currency. The Riksbank head has argued for deeper rate cut than the 0.25 basis point enacted. They prefer the basic self mutilation method.
  • Japan has reignited new major battles, as newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged a more aggressive central bank, turning it into more of a political arm. The result has been an 11% Yen decline since December against the USDollar. Their 22-year interventions are a total disaster, and example to observe. Expect Japan to join forces with the Chinese in common goals.
  • The Bank of Korea has formally stated an urgent response is needed to defend against the falling Japanese Yen. Concern is over the harmful impact to exports and investor confidence. Their finance ministry wishes to put forward an agenda item at the G-20 talks in Moscow, on adverse effects of monetary easing in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Expect South Korea to join forces with the Chinese, as they diversify out of USTBonds.

continue article at GoldSeek.com:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1360270800.php



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    • Anonymous

      If history is any indicator(I believe it is), currency wars evolve into hot wars. See WWI and WWII for details.

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