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Canadian Dollar to Fall Further?

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5 Reasons Why the Loonie Could Fall Further

1. Weak Canadian economic data
Unless you’ve been living under a rock or floating around in outer space like Robopip, you’d be aware that the Canadian economy has been printing one bad report after another.
Last week, Canada printed a very disappointing Ivey PMI figure of 46.3, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing industry when analysts were actually expecting to see an improvement from 53.7 to 55.0. Canada also reported a jaw-dropping 6.7% decline in building permits, worse than the estimated 2.3% dip. To top it all off, the jobs report revealed that the economy lost 45.9K jobs in December, enough to push the unemployment rate up from 6.9% to 7.2%.

2. Further declines in oil prices?

It doesn’t help the Loonie’s cause that oil prices have been slipping and sliding lately. A quick look at the daily chart of Brent crude oil suggests that further declines are likely, as a double top pattern has formed and price has already broken below the formation’s neckline:

My view:

Note the double top at $113.

RSI 5 is diverging.
MACD is diverging.
Long term Stochastics have fallen below 50%.

And now price is below both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.

The longer term outlook for oil prices looks sluggish at best.

Hardly the driver for a strong Loonie.

The astute reader will recall forecast #5 from the post 2014 Forecast, suggesting Brent crude dropping to $99.

As a corollary, the Canadian dollar could well see the 87 – 88 cent range in US funds.

Stock market bulls be warned, the market may move higher in the very short run, but fundamentals are less than spectacular.






Source: http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2014/01/canadian-dollar-to-fall-further.html



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    • Mellissa

      America was never happy when the Canadian dollar was at par or even hovering above its own currency. It is no surprise that this is happening, what goes up will come down, what goes down will come up again eventually. If they let it. Harper did do OK for us economically so far for his two term’s ( who voted for him??) tho the rest was ignored unless attached to business, that is how it looks from my angle.

      They never did equalize pricing for books, that bothered me greatly for years our money was almost equal but here in Canada I have to pay much more to support my only addiction, books.. shakes fist in Harper’s general direction.

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