The "Low Housing Inventory" Myth

Investment Research Dynamics

Every month the chief “economist” of the National Association – Larry Yun – remarks that “low inventory” is hampering home sales.  But of course no one questions this premise – except for me.

As it turns out, if you examine the historical data in order to question the NAR’s assertions, the facts show that since 1999 – which is when the Fed began tracking existing home sales – relative inventory levels do not drive home sales:

In fact – if anything – there is an inverse correlation between inventory levels and home sales. In other words, since 1999, homes sales rise when inventories are low!

It blows my mind that everyone just accepts the NAR propaganda drooled out by its chief snake oil salesman.   I take a sledgehammer hammer to this idea that low inventory levels are holding back home sales in this Seeking Alpha article:   The Low Housing Inventory Myth.

Based on what I’m observing in the metro-Denver market – one of the previously hottest markets in the country – and based on reader reports from other metro areas around the country, it would appear that home listings are beginning rise quickly.  But what’s wrong with this picture?   Inventories are going up as we enter the slowest seasonal period of the year.   Either  sellers are all rushing to try and unload their overvalued home or many of them are trying to get out of a home that is unaffordable.

Certainly this visual, which is become prevalent all throughout the metro-Denver market, smells a little bit like desperation: