As the world wakes up to the fact that Deutsche Bank is not Lehman - it’s massively bigger, and massively more systemic, oh and it has depositors - contagion is spreading through global funding and asset markets.
DB share price just hit single-digits…
And the expectations of a major debt haircut soar (CoCos hit record lows)
With Deutsche Bank Sub CDS now at record highs (remember Senior still supressed a little via ECB buying systemically)
And that has crushed the European banking system… (with European bank credit risk soaring, despite the ECB’s bond-buying overlay)
EUR FRA/OIS spreads shot up 280bps in the last 2 weeks – from record lows! (the biggest percentage surge in counterparty risk since 2011′s crisis began)
2016 and 2017 euribor contract prices underperform rest of the curve as funding pressures weigh on these contracts and broader risk-off sentiment sees deferred yields edge lower.
As demand for USD liquidity explodes to 4-year highs: at a peak of -61bps, this is the highest since July 2012, the middle of the European financial crisis)
USD funding demand also seen in CHF, JPY and GBP, with 3-mo. implied yields moving 5bps, 4bps and 3.5bps lower, amid patchy liquidity, according to a London-based trader.
Which confirms that this week’s massive spike in ECB Liquidity facility usage.
Was not enough.
For now the world remains mired in the first of Kubler-Ross five stages of grief - denial! Expectations of a state bailout remain far too high given the massive political problem that would ensue – read, European mutiny – should Germany bailout its banking system while Cypriot, Greek, and Italian banks have been forced to fend for themselves, confirming the widely held impressin that Europe is being run by and for Germany.
Next comes ‘anger‘… remember Monday is a bank holiday in Germany.
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