World trade has fallen for the second quarter in a row. The decade of stagnation of industrial production in the United States, Japan, and European Union can be blamed on financial engineering, housing bubbles, war, and recently on destructive monetary policy in QE bond purchase program. It is not stimulus, but rather a destroyer of capital. The West contains several nations with heavy industrial emphasis, hardly advanced economies anymore. They risk a fall into the Third World from a generation of outsourcing, asset bubbles, and financial fraud, as soon as the new currency regime is installed as part of the financial RESET.
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, just released its preliminary data of its Merchandise World Trade Monitor. Trade volumes rose 0.7% in June sequentially, after falling 0.5% in May. Trade was flat year-over-year, but below the volumes of December 2014. On a quarterly basis, world trade fell 0.8%, contracting for the second quarter in a row. Without a doubt the global economy is stuck in a powerful recession. No positive constructive remedies or proper reform policy have been put in place since the Lehman failure. Exactly none. To be sure, none have even been attempted.
Worse, the CPB recently adjusted its world trade data downward, going back several years. The newly updated data depicts a post-Financial Crisis recovery of global trade which is considerably weaker than their original data had indicated. These downward adjustments of 2% to 3% came in a climate of stalled economic growth, according to the IMF. Much of the Western national data is rubbish, forced positive by the common NeoCon fascist dictum. The chart of the CPB’s World Trade Monitor index shows the old data released as of July 2015 (blue line) and the newly adjusted data released (red line). Observe the horrendous 4.4% downard adjustment from the peak in global trade volumes in the original data for December 2014 and in the current data for June 2016. They confirm a broadbased global recession of about 1.0%, in full contradiction of the nonsensical constant Orwellian propaganda of sluggish recovery, spouted routinely in the drumbeat of mainstream news.
World trade is a direct reflection of only the goods producing economy. Services are not shipped around the world. An airline flight of a group of consultants is not considered world trade, any more than tourism. Finished products, raw materials, and intermediate goods (like car parts for assembly) are shipped regularly. So industrial production, excluding construction, is key. The trend is terrible for advanced economies. Global industrial production, excluding construction, rose 0.6% in June, after a 0.3% decline in May. The index for industrial production in advanced economies rose to 102.5, below where it had been in January at 103.4, a level reached after the Financial Crisis in December 2012. The industrial output remains below from the glory days before the Financial Crisis when the index peaked at 107.8 in February 2008. The global economic recession is as painfully evident as it is denied.
The current level for the index has returned almost exactly to where it was in April 2006, right before the Lehman failure and ensuing crisis. The world has endured a full decade of stagnation, without any remote attempt at remedy or reform, while the bank syndicate remains in power. Remove rose colored glasses. Combine the abandoned austerity budget initiative for the USGovt with the ongoing big bank welfare (known as QE), the preserved insolvent big banks (in dire need of liquidation), the expanding welfare state, then sprinkle on Arab human garbage, and stir with the maintained constant war. Thus no economic recovery, just talk of such.
To varying degrees, the gripping recession has occurred in the United States, Japan, and the EuroZone. A few other so-called industrialized (advanced) economies have exceeded their pre-Financial Crisis levels. Industrial production has shifted to emerging economies, capitalizing on their cheap labor for many years, such as China. Decades ago the vast array of companies in the US, and eventually in Europe and Japan, began outsourcing production to emerging economies in foreign lands. Hence, industrial production in emerging economies has surged over this period. This was particularly the case after the Financial Crisis when companies in the US, Europe, and Japan redoubled their efforts to get production relocated offshore, using easy money from the USFed which moved the cost of money to near 0%, where it has remained for seven years. However, an extreme point of caution. The Emerging Market USD-based debt stands at over $5 to $9 trillion, depending on the definition of such nations. Some estimates are higher. The debt is on the verge of default, due to their currency declines and reduced commodity income, including from crude oil.Thanks to Wolf Street for the contribution.
The Hanjin crisis brings new headache to US-based importers. Trailers stack up, adding to client costs while trailer shortage looms. The idle containers are clogging the entire system. Confusion abounds, as emergency measures are being sought. A drop-off point system for the empties is being considered. Soon the used containers will become a newly created market for cargo owners. The bankruptcy of South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd is causing ripple effects for importers bringing goods from Asian factories to the US marketplace. Port facilities are being jammed, while a shortage of trailers is created to move ocean shipping containers on US roads and railways. The world’s seventh largest container carrier owns and transports more than half a million containers. They are in many cases clogging up ports and truck yards, tying up trailers that cannot be used to handle other cargo. The growing chaos is beginning to worry freight handlers at US ports on the West Coast. Witness the first sign of follow-on effects from the failure of Hanjin. The problem stems from Hanjin’s shortage of cash, which has stranded $14 billion of cargo owned by companies such as HP Inc, Home Shopping Network, and Samsung Electronics. Much of the cargo have been stuck on over 100 ships at sea because cargo handlers, tug operators, and ports are refusing to work with Hanjin unless they are paid upfront. They all are aware of the risk of not receiving payment.
In recent weeks, terminal operators in the California ports of Long Beach and Oakland are not taking back empty containers. Many in the industry doubt Hanjin will pay storage costs, which has led to a growing backlog of empty containers and the trailers they sit on. The containers are stranded. Thousands of Hanjin containers are on trailers kept out of circulation. The uncertainty surrounding Hanjin appears to be pushing truckers to lock in trailers from the local organization pool. Maybe the vast pile-up of containers can be fashioned into sleek condominiums like in Detorit, like lego communities.
Simply stated, if a container reads the Hanjin label, there is no place for it to go. One intermediate solution put forth is the creation of a Drop-Off Point for containers after their cargo is discharged. In Southern California, shipping industry executives are discussing a staging area where truckers could drop off empty containers to free up trailers.Another mid-term solution has been proposed. The cargo owners could resort to buying the containers they hold, which would clear up any legal uncertainty around them, thereby enabling the return of chassis. A new niche market is emerging.
Global supply chains are paralyzed after world’s seventh largest container shipper filed for bankruptcy, with its assets frozen within the system. Eastern (Asian) mega-corporations are not too big to fail, not coddled and bailed out (like in the West). Hyundai Merchant Marine might purchase some of Hanjin’s diverse assets. Shipping rates have been reduced amidst the glut, as the global economy is due for a large slam.
August 31st will be marked on the calendars. On that day, the largest casualty finally slammed global trade ports when South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping filed for court receivership after losing its bank support (credit lines), which left its assets frozen. Ports from China to Spain denied access to its vessels. Hanjin Shipping is SKorea’s largest shipping firm and the world’s seventh biggest container carrier. It is a truly huge player. It operates some 70 liner and tramper services around the globe, transporting over 100 million tons of cargo annually. Its fleet consists of some 150 containerships and bulk carriers. It commands four regional headquarters in the US, Europe, Asia, and South East & West Asia, with nearly 5000 people on global staffs. They run numerous major ports for their world class logistics network. Other shipping firms will go bust soon. Even leader Moller-Maersk is in deep trouble, now considering a restructure.
The shipping stalemate from Hanjin has suspicious elements and overtones. Perhaps the Asians generally are conspiring to throw a wrench into the Western Economy. The strong hint of a USDollar rejection at the ports is a major component in the financial angle, possibly the initial salvo in the global financial RESET. Dire challenges exist to shipping with respect to finance, threatening the Global Economy.
Be sure to know that what follows is speculation, but informed and backed by the last few years of events. The stage is set, during a trade war and a global visceral response to the QE monetary hyper inflation that undermines the USDollar. The East led by China want the RESET to be done, but the West delays interminably. The Western bankers and their controlled governments are printing money to cover their failed bonds and to finance their huge debt. THIS CANNOT STAND. Global finance has been turned on its ear. Numerous national banking systems are insolvent. The expected pull of the plug has been looming for many months. Consider some thoughts by EuroRaj, a brilliant analyst on the Jackass team. He wonders if the Asian producers have finally found a lever to pull with shipping and its related payments, to interrupt global trade with the West. It has been not only lopsided, but the payments have been in low quality printed paper and impaired debt. Refer to USTreasury Bills, which seem to be a problem, perhaps being rejected at ports as payment. Consider the theory by my brilliant colleague with 20 years of bank analyst experience, a savvy fellow who has contributed much to the Hat Trick Letter since 2013.
The Hanjin story sounds very shady for a number of reasons. The total debt involved is only at $5.6 billion. Nobody stops operations in a bankruptcy, since the situation worsens quickly and the creditor damage grows deeper. The banks or specialist funding companies step in quickly with an urgently needed service, to provide debtor in possession financing (DIP) funding. Imagine some potential motives at work here. First, perhaps Team Asia wishes to throw a monkey wrench for trade between China and Europe. Note how China and Spain are mentioned in the articles concerning the Hanjin debacle. Second, perhaps a plan is afoot to bring global trade and manufacturing to a halt, so that USFed can justify QE to Infinity in full bloom soon while the Western Economies are severely distracted.
The question has come to center stage. As a result of the bankruptcy process, the global supply chain stands at risk to endure an unexpected failure. The South Korean oceans ministry had been in negotiations for Hyundai Merchant Marine to take over some routes. The global implications from the bankruptcy are unknown, since without precedent due to enormous scale. The potential impact on global supply chains remains devastating, with a cascading waterfall effect, whose impact on global economies could be severe as a result of the worldwide logistics chaos. Both economists and corporations around the globe, the affected firms suffering deep impacted and others, will have yet another excuse on which to blame the radical slowdown in profits and economic growth in the third quarter. An official admission of a global recession, along with numerous individual national recessions, might come. Do not expect the USFed to hike interest rates with the shipping disaster in the background. They are all talk!
Here is the central point, perhaps a seminal event in progress with respect to the Global Financial RESET, an action done by angry Asian producers. We might be witnessing a pretext in action, to cover for the rejection of the USDollar, the refusal to accept USTreasury Bills at ports in return for cargo delivery. At risk is the stoppage of all goods shipped from Asia to the United States. The stakes have risen. The Asians are out of patience. The damage multiplies each month. They might be fed up with toilet paper spewn by the USGovt and USFed, a money laundering duo. We might be seeing a trade war salvo of high order, this round led by Asia, directed at the USEconomy, forcing the RESET that Washington and Wall Street refuse to permit, refuse to initiate. The American retailers and other clients who order the Asian ships loaded with cargo typically pay with USTreasury Bills. The Asians might be finally calling an end to payment in USD terms, rendered African toilet paper by QE and the massive hemorrhage of $1 trillion USGovt debt. Hyper monetary inflation has stern nasty consequences. The US trade deficit is a whopping $500 billion per year, which is financed by debt during a time of suspected debt default and full debt monetization.
The red flag could be telling us to that RESET is here. The urgent call would be to stock up on essential supplies and to buy physical gold & silver (then to hold it). Without any hesitation or equivocation, the hangup at ports implies something particularly foreboding about the state of global finance. The DIP Financing step has been short-circuited. It smells like a coordinated operation is being carried out by Team Asia, with Hanjin a sacrificial lamb, albeit a very big lamb.
Futhermore, more stench with signals. The goods carried as cargo have nothing to do with the troubles of the transportation company. They are separate. The suspicion is that the producers who load the ships with cargo from actual work are interested in higher quality payments, no longer finding the USTBill acceptable as payment. The USGovt officials would put a news blackout on the USD rejection. The real physical goods are there. Look beyond the stated news. It is the payment in USD terms which is the problem. The DIP Financing should be an easy issue to overcome. Such financing is standard operating system, and has been for 50 years. With each passing month that QE wrecks the financial platforms and undermines capital structures, the payment in USD terms is more assuredly to be refused. We might soon hear about payment in kind for the cargo, as in the form of any commodity or finished good being requested. Perhaps demands for barter on hard assets such as commodity swaps will be part of trade payments, a concept cited by The Voice on countless occasions in the last year or two. This could be accomplished with copper plates, iron ore, cement, oil & gas, even credits toward commercial building purchase, port facility purchase, bridge and toll road purchase, even more.
The Gold Trade Notes for trade payment might be coming into view, initially with commodity transfers, later swap contracts, and finally gold-backed short-term notes which supplant the USTBill. One might think of used newspapers on the floor, or of the dodo bird. The trade might be made in exchange for either goods delivered or USTBills held. Detect a growing connection to finished goods being withheld from delivery. This is probably another sign of refusal of USTBills as payment. As footnote, be sure to know that the preliminary steps to the Global Currency RESET will not be laid out in full disclosure for public benefit. It represents a tremendous investment opportunity for the elite, which they never tend to share. In fact, the RESET might be well along before it is even recognized. End to EuroRaj main thoughts and open analysis, for which much gratitude is given. The Jackass believes a few critical elements to the RESET are in place. More details on DIP Financing feature is included in the September Hat Trick Letter report.
***A major hitch obstacle can be inferred. Payment in USD terms might be the clot in the artery. Demands might be for hard asset swaps, and the contract security from large scale commitment of commodities, facilities, and property. The swap trade is coming into view, a presage of the Gold Trade Note.***
The Jackass concludes the USD rejection could be lifting its head within a gathering storm, without clear identification. It is indeed difficult to identify all the elements when hidden deals at the highest level are underway, and friction is omnipresent. The Bobcat Corp rejection of USTBills at Pacific ports is a clear story. For every one story recounted, there are 10 to 20 not yet heard. My firm belief is that in Asian banking systems, they do not want the USTBills anymore. The banks in Asia are trying to dump them in heavy volume, not accumulate more worthless toilet paper. Finally the sharp blowback from printing QE money has hit. The USFed monetary policy saves the big insolvent banks, but kills capital. The result has finally seen manifested in USD global rejection, or at least hints toward the same. Asian banks still hold vast sums of USTBonds. They are not going to announce the rejection, but instead fight behind the walls for better terms of payment, even as they pursue the Gold Trade Note for payment at ports. It is coming, like daybreak follows the long night.
In time, expect an eventual refusal by Eastern producing nations to accept USTreasury Bills in payment for trade. The IMF reversal decision assures this USTBill blockade in time, and might accelerate the timetable. The United States Govt cannot continue on five glaring fronts of gross negligence and major violations. These violations have prompted the BRICS & Alliance nations to hasten their development of diverse non-USD platforms toward the goal of displacing the USDollar while at the same time take steps toward the return of the Gold Standard.
The New Scheiss Dollar will arrive in order to assure continued import supply to the USEconomy. It will be given a 30% devaluation out of the gate, then many more devaluations of similar variety. The New Dollar will fail all foreign and Eastern scrutiny. The USGovt will be forced to react to USTBill rejection at the ports. The US must accommodate with the New Scheiss Dollar in order to assure import supply, and to alleviate the many stalemates to come. The United States finds itself on the slippery slope that leads to the Third World, a Jackass forecast that has been presented since Lehman fell (better described as killed by JPM and GSax). The only apparent alternative is for the United States Govt to lease a large amount of gold bullion (like 10,000 tons) from China in order to properly launch a gold-backed currency. Doing so would open the gates for a generation of commercial colonization, but actual progress in returning capitalism to the United States. The cost would be supply shortages to the USEconomy, a result of enormous export increases to China.
The colonization has already begun, with secret deals galore. It is very unclear what deals are being struck in order to arrange for the USGovt to have a proper gold reserve hoard, for backing a new legitimate USDollar. Meetings at very high level are in progress, with little if any popular representation, only elite members present. Failure to produce a legitimate bonafide gold-backed currency would mean the United States must proceed with the New Scheiss Dollar, an illegitimate fake phony farce of a currency. It would be subjected to a series of devaluations. The result would be heavy powerful painful price inflation from the import front. The effect would be to reverse a generation of exported inflation by the United States. The entire USEconomy would go into a downward spiral with higher prices, supply shortages, and social disorder. However, the rising prices would come from the currency crisis, and not so much from the hyper monetary inflation. That flood of $trillions has been effectively firewalled off.
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