Bitcoin Price Will Surge to $1645 in March If Winklevoss ETF Gets Green Light
by Olusegun Ogundeji, Coin Telegraph:
Speculation about the Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF possible regulatory approval continues. On March 11, the US Securities and Exchange Commission should come to its “yes” or “no” verdict after almost four years of waiting.
It may happen by the time two of the world’s top Bitcoin exchanges that are based in China –Huobi and OKCoin – would have resumed their full withdrawal services.
Most commentators are certain that the first Bitcoin exchange traded fund or ETF is not likely to be approved. However, commentaries are still divided over the issue and none of the stakeholders rule out the approval completely. The consequences of a positive decision could be huge.
So if it happens, what would the ETF mean to the market?
Yes means +68 percent return
Going by notable views at the moment, the chance of the Bitcoin ETF being approved is very slim.
Analyst firm Needham & Company, on Feb. 10, confirmed its prior estimate that it sees a “sub-25 percent” chance of approval for the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF. But, if approved, it says the ETF would likely attract more than $300 mln into the market in its first week alone.
Willy Woo, a cryptocurrency market analyst, also puts the approval probability at 25 percent andspeculates that $500 mln and $1 bln will be injected into the market.
Quantitative analysis and value research firm, Emerita Capital, assigned a probability of 35 percent for approval against 65 percent probability of rejection, making our final average expected price $1645.45 or a +67.8 percent expected return above the current price.
Chinese may be caught unprepared
By the time two of the world’s top Bitcoin exchanges – Huobi and OKCoin – would have resumed their full withdrawal services, in about a month of its KYC/AML system upgrade (it could be less), the first US-based Bitcoin ETF could be approved.
According to Spencer Bogart from Needham & Company, this ongoing upgrade is a plus for the approval bid of the Bitcoin ETF as trading is now somewhat more evenly spread geographically worldwide.
However, considering that ETFs have a long history of penetrating new and occasionally untapped investment areas, it’s likely that approval may dawn on Chinese players, unprepared for the first-mover advantage it would bring.
This is crucial, particularly now that the latest reports say the PBoC would be eyeing a tighter monetary policy as China’s inflation measures hit multi-year highs in January, up by 6.9 percent, and the consumer price index rose 2.5 percent.
Dollar sways
It should also be considered that Bitcoin transactions in US dollars have spiked of late even before the series of regulatory measures introduced by Chinese exchanges and there has been a relative price stability around the $1000 range even without the full participation of the most popular Chinese exchanges. The early user advantage will sway further to the US dollar transactions at the commencement of the ETF’s operation, though how better the experience gets would determine how long the focus on the market would be.
Read More @ CoinTelegraph.com/a>
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).