The Gathering Storm: Could Covid-19 Overwhelm Us in the Months Ahead?
Thursday, March 5, 2020 14:04
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Either the science is wrong and the complacent will be proven correct, or the science is correct and the complacent will be wrong.
The present disconnect between the science of Covid-19 and the status quo’s complacency is truly crazy-making, as we face a binary situation: either the science is correct and all the complacent are wrong, or the science is false and all the complacent are correct that the virus is no big deal and nothing to fret about.
Complacency is ubiquitous: readers on Facebook leave comments on my posts “this is silly.” Correspondents report that people don’t even cover their mouths when coughing, much less use a tissue. People keep repeating like a mantra that a bad flu season kills 35,000 in the U.S. alone, and so why worry about a couple thousand deaths globally?
Another common trope is “hepatitis kills far more people in the U.S., so why worry about the coronavirus?”
So let’s look at some data and consider what science can tell us about the potential consequences of the Covid-19 virus spreading as widely as conventional flu viruses.
The fallacy made by the complacent is that the number of cases will remain small (in the dozens or hundreds) and so the number of deaths will also remain small.
Since the evidence suggests the Covid-19 virus is more contagious than conventional flu viruses, a reasonable assumption is that it will eventually infect more people than a conventional flu, which according to the CDC infects up to 45 million Americans annually.
According to the CDC, viral hepatitis B caused 5,600 deaths in the U.S. in 2017, and hepatitis C caused 19,000 deaths, for a total of 24,600. That certainly exceeds reported deaths of Covid-19, but since the statistics presented by the Chinese government are unreliable, we have no idea how many people have the virus and how many have died.
According to the CDC, influenza and pneumonia together caused 55,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2017.
Given the scientific evidence that Covid-19 is highly contagious, let’s do a Pareto Distribution (80/20 rule) projection and estimate that 20% of the the U.S. population gets Covid-19. That’s 66 million people, roughly 50% higher than the 45 million who catch a flu virus in a “bad flu” season.
Data suggests between 2% and 3.4% of all Covid-19 cases end in death, but the deaths are concentrated in the 20% of cases that become severe, and in the vulnerable populations within the 20% severe cases that require hospitalization.
Using the lower CFR (case-fatality rate) rate, 2% of 66 million is 1.3 million, so if Covid-19 infects only 20% of the U.S. populace, current data suggests 1.3 million people will die. This is considerably more than 24,600,or 55,000. (Total annual deaths in the U.S. are around 2.8 million.)
But these mortality data are drawn from small numbers of patients who have had access to intensive care. Anecdotal evidence from places where the healthcare system has been overwhelmed (Wuhan) so intensive care is unavailable to the majority of severely ill patients suggest much higher death rates around 15%, with worst-case scenarios going as high as 80% mortality for untreated severe cases in vulnerable populations (elderly and chronically ill).
If 20% of all cases can be expected to be severe and require hospitalization/intensive care (20% of 66 million is 13 million people), then intensive care will quickly become unavailable due to the low number of intensive care beds in the U.S. (94,000). The total number of all hospital beds in the U.S. is around 931,000. (Recall that the majority of these beds are already in use, so the number available to those severely ill with Covid-19 is a fraction of the total.)
If 15% of untreated severely ill patients die, that is 13 million X 15% = 1.95 million.
So let’s cut all these numbers in half: let’s assume only 10% of the U.S. populace gets the Covid-19 virus (33 million), so only 6.6 million people become severely ill. If 15% of untreated severely ill patients eventually die, that’s 1 million deaths in the U.S. alone.
In other words, the death rate is only low if the number of severely ill patients remains very low. Once the number of patients needing hospitalization exceeds the number of ICU beds, the death rate leaps dramatically.
All this assumes there are not already more lethal variants in some human populations, and it also ignores the issue of re-infection: A tour guide in Japan tested positive for the coronavirus for a 2nd time, less than a month after recovering.
Authorities are well aware of the potential for the Covid-19 to spread rapidly and cause a great many deaths. But they’re also concerned about the consequences of an economic crash as people avoid public places (i.e. “social distancing”) as the most effective preventative measure to reduce the chances of contracting the virus.
The resulting layoffs and business closures will trigger financial and economic consequences that may not be recoverable if these trends self-reinforce (more layoffs cause consumption to decline, triggering more layoffs, etc.).
I wrote about this on February 11: China’s Fatal Dilemma.
If authorities downplay the Covid-19 pandemic and encourage people to continue flying, gathering in public, etc. in order to keep the economy humming, that will accelerate the spread of the virus.
When people awaken to the dangers of the pandemic (for example, when ICU beds are all filled and severely ill patients are being turned away), they will panic and pursue “social distancing” regardless of what officials say. When complacency gives way to panic (yes, it can happen here and yes, it can happen to you), the economy will crash.
In other words, the economy will crash either way: if authorities force “social distancing” to limit the spread of the virus or if they downplay the pandemic and let the virus spread to the point that people panic and “socially distance” themselves regardless of official entreaties to get out there and buy, buy, buy.
Forcing “social distancing” won’t stop the eventual spread of the virus, because as soon as restrictions are eased the virus will enter the newly open cities via asymptomatic carriers and a second wave of infections will spread. Forcing “social distancing” while thousands of airline flights and railway travel continue to spread asymptomatic carriers to every transportation node on the planet is not going to stop the spread of the virus.
The science suggests a significant percentage of the human populace will eventually get the Covid-19 virus. Estimates run from 40% to 70%; You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus (The Atlantic).
Common sense suggests complacency is misplaced, and efforts should be made to minimize the risk of getting the virus until a reliable vaccine is available, which those with experience in the field suggest might be a year or 18 months away.
The science is telling us that the global economy will experience a depression as these realities sink in. Authorities pushing complacency as a short-term financial panacea are doing an enormous disservice to the people who entrusted them with power. The more effective strategy would be to prepare to deal with a global depression while limiting the spread of the virus by whatever means are available, which at present boils down to social distancing and increased hygiene.
Here is an example of status quo complacency in the U.S.: the person returns from Japan with symptoms of Covid-19, tests negative for conventional flu and other viruses, CDC refuses to test for Covid-19, no special protocols despite the obvious risk of Covid-19, staff tells the patient to go home by whatever transport he/she normally uses. My COVID-19 Story. Brooklyn. (via Maoxian)
So either the science is wrong and the complacent will be proven correct, or the science is correct and the complacent will be wrong.
My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts
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Source: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-gathering-storm-could-covid-19.html
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They Keep On PUSHIN’ – Propaganda FEAR PORN – “CASE NUMBERS”
And the are inTOP GEAR – TESTING – ON A … WHOLESALE INDUSTRIAL SCALE – To JUICE UP – FEAR FACTOR (But Meainngless)
– CASE NUMBERS.
…………………… BUT !!
IMPORTANT – HOW DANGEROUS A VIRUS IS – IS NOT – TEST DISCOVERED INFECTIONS (aka CASES) >> AS 95%
>> HAVE NO OR NEGLIGIBLE…. SYMPTOMS
>>>> THE IMPORTANT FACTOR IS
>>>> KILL RATE
……………………
CARONAVIRUS – KILL RATE
Real Figure – CHINA 0.0034
Real Figure – OUTSIDE China 0.0014
SO TINY – IT’S … INSIGNIFICANT & IRRELEVANT – IN VIRUS TERMS !!
AND….
As you will see below – March 3, 2020 The World Health Organization on Tuesday announced
among children….. and healthy adults …..
>>>> the mortality rate >>>> is close to zero.
……………………………………… FULL EXPLANATION / CALCULATION
For Simplicity Just Using CHINA Numbers & Round Up – 80,000 Cases 3,000 Deaths + as you will see from experts below
>>>> 10X known cases of INFECTED – But Not Recorded – As they NEVER Have Symptoms OR Too Mild To Notice
Thats 800,000 UNRECORDED CASES
Revise NOW 880,000 Cases (Recorded + Unrecorded 10X more) With … 3,000 Deaths
Death rate 3,000 divided by 880,000 = 0.0034 or in percentage terms 0.34%
March 3, 2020 The World Health Organization on Tuesday announced
- The illness has a much stronger chance of causing death…. in sick and elderly patients
while among children….. and healthy adults …..
>>>> the mortality rate >>>> is close to zero.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/coronavirus-world-health-organization-announces-mortality-rate-has-jumped-to-3-point-4-percent/#slide-1
…………………………………………………………..
Death Rate OUTSIDE China
67 divided by 47,000 (4351 + 43,500 10X As Many Unrecorded – Infected NO/Mild Symptoms)
= 0.0014 or percentage 0.14%
…………………………………………….
BASED ON – QUOTE
28 February 2020 >>> WHO Director-General’s…. opening remarks
As of 6am Geneva time this morning,
Outside China, there are now 4351 cases>>>> in 49 countries, >>>>and 67 deaths.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—28-february-2020
……………………………………………………………………………………………………
THESE ARE THE OTHER FACTS – THAT YOU REALLY >>> DO NEED TO KNOW
& WELL WORTH – YOUR TIME
READ ON >>>>
…………..…………………………………………………………………………………
An Opinion From A REAL – FULL MONTY QUALIFIED – WORLD EXPERT !!!
So MILD >>> 95% Of Cases >>> WON’T EVEN NEED TO GO … TO A DOCTOR !!!
Lets Hear From ….. Dr Craig Dalton is a public health physician and conjoint Associate Professor at the University of Newcastle, Australia.
He is a former CDC …… Epidemic Intelligence …. Service Officer
- and runs Flutracking.net one of the largest national surveillance systems …. for influenza-like illness in the world.
There are many countries with cases that haven’t ….. even detected their ….first cases yet.
They may have ….thousands of cases…. Before…. the first case is detected.
- Because …most cases >>>> wont go to a doctor ……
- In fact ….. most likely >>> 95% >>> are mild
(allowing for surveillance biases towards more severe cases).
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48606151-craig-dalton/5413058-update-analysts-are-starting-to-understand-coronavirus
……………………………………………………………………………………………………
ANOTHER EXPERT >>> CARONAVIRUS – SO MILD – YOU WOULDN’T… FIND CASES
>>> WITHOUT ….. MASS TESTING – & LOOKING FOR IT
Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology >>> at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. He noted that Guangdong, a province in China, conducted surveillance
- testing of 300,000 people in fever clinics
- to find about 420 positive cases.
“If you don’t look,>>>> you won’t find cases,” he said.
https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
REPEAT >> They Had – TO TEST – Nearly 1/3rd Of A MILLION Chinese – To Scrape up
>>>> JUST 420 (repeat 420) …. Positive Cases – Yes Moving Heaven & Earth To
>>> Hype Up The PROPAGANDA Figures !!
……………………..…..………..……………………………………………………..…………………
28 February 2020 >>> WHO Director-General’s…. opening remarks
As of 6am Geneva time this morning, China has reported a total of 78,959 cases of COVID-19 to WHO, including 2791 deaths.
Outside China, there are now 4351 cases>>>> in 49 countries, >>>>and 67 deaths.
Our greatest enemy right now ….is not the virus itself. …. It’s >>>> fear & rumours
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—28-february-2020
…………………………………………….
REPEAT WORLDWIDE … OUTSIDE CHINA >>> A TINY TINY INSIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF …. TOTAL DEATHS >>> JUST 67
….. BEING PREDOMINANTLY – THE USUAL _ THE OLD, – THOSE WITH SERIOUS UNDERLYING MEDICAL CONDITIONS – THE IMMUNO-COMPROMISED – AND THOSE ALREADY NEAR DEATH ANYWAY.
……………………………………………….
In contrast, in the US, the Centers of Disease Control estimate that so far for the 2019-20 season, at least …….
>>> 15 million flu virus illnesses, >>> 140,000 hospitalizations and >>8,200 deaths in the U.S, which has population ……of 330 million,……. about a quarter that of China.
And there was virtually no coverage or concern regarding
- the Seasonal Flu,…… which in 2017 resulted >>>>> globally in 650,000 ….deaths.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-epidemic-who-declares-a-global-public-health-crisis-can-we-trust-the-who/5702360?utm_campaign=magnet&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles
Caronavirus by comparison – is just a PI$$ In The Ocean !!
…………………………………………….
IN ADDITION FEB 25th
RECOVERIES – ARE ALREADY SURPASSING ……the total number of …..daily new infections
for the first time.
That occurred on February 19th, …. according to Johns Hopkins University tracking, when there were 439 new cases…. and approximately >>>> 1,800 recoveries.
The trend has continued since then >>> with fewer than 600 new confirmed COVID-19 cases each day >>>> and an even greater number ….of recoveries.
https://www.statista.com/chart/20943/new-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-and-recoveries
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
YES … It’s A – Cute Pussycat Of A Virus – In VIRAL TERMS (Yes Really) – READ ON >>>>
Some TRUTH, FACTS & ACTUAL GENUINE USEFUL INFO
THE TRUTH IS >>> The Caronavirus PlayBook Is Already Written.
It’s just a repeat of ……the H1N1 Swine Flu (SARS, MERS, BIRD FLU, EBOLA) – They All Run
The Same – Fake Propaganda Virus Playbook
And We Are – Just heading into – Chapter 2.
So How Did SWINE FLU H1N1 PANDEMIC END >>> Well …, At The End Of 18 months of Swine Flu – Fear Porn
- The World Health Organisation WHO declared …. the pandemic over – & during the >>> 18 months it had killed JUST ..18,500 people globally
- averaging the figures of lab confirmed deaths – from the 214 countries that report to the W.H.O
>>>> That averages out at >>>> LESS THAN 90 (as in Ninety) …. Swine Flu Deaths Per Country
……………………………………………………………….
In Hindsight The 18 months of relentless fear porn fake propaganda headlines, >>> were over ……an insignificant, irrelevant virus – Killing On Average …. Just 90 People – PER Country !!
………………………………………………
QUOTE W.H.O OWN WEBSITE
6 August 2010 – As of 1 August 2010, worldwide… more than 214 countries and overseas territories or communities >>>> have reported laboratory confirmed cases …. of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including over >>> 18449 deaths.
LINK TO W.H.O. OFFICIAL WEBSITE Confirmation Of Above FACT !! >>> https://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_08_06/en/
And – This CARONAVIRUS >>> Will Be A Repeat.
……………………………………..
Caronavirus Took 2 Months/60 Days To Kill 2,400 (ie a TINY 40 Per Day)
- of old, sick, frail, immuno-compromised and already on their last legs Chinese
- Up to 95% of Infected – Have Symptoms – So Mild – They Won’t Even Notice
- and in most countries – hasn’t even reached a THOUSAND infected
Regular Annual Flu – Kills 88,000 …Chinese per year
7 Million Chinese… Die Of All Causes Per Year
-vs- Caronavirus – UNDER 3,000 !!!
Read the facts – Engage Brain & Common Sense – It’s an insignificant irrelevance – the rest is Rinse & Repeat VIRAL FEAR PORN
……………………………………………………….…
LETS GET AN OVERALL OPINION FROM EXPERTS – AT THE UK NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE (PUBLISHED IN A UK NATIONAL NEWSPAPER) – THE INDEPENDENT
28/Feb/2020 …. QUOTE….
“As a member of the public….. you might get… coronavirus
>>> but your chances…. of being ill …. and in hospital >>>>>is not high.
On a person …. by person basis >>>>>> IT IS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT
(UNQUOTE)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-deaths-nhs-intensive-care-flu-wise-men-protocol-a9361916.html
…………………………………………………………………………………
So – Total Prepping Required – IF you are one of the …very few that do get infected
- and NOT one of the 90/95% infected that exhibit >>> NO Symptoms
Or Symptoms >>>> So MILD – You Would’t Even Notice Them …..
- then…………
It may be prudent to perhaps – buy a small box ….of paper hankerchiefs/tissues… & Voila …..FULLY PREPPED & Ready
>>> READ ON
…………………………………
LETS GET INITIAL OFFICIAL >>> GOVERNMENT CONFIRMATION ….(Fuller Details Lower Down on THE ACTUAL NUMBERS)
………….CANADIAN GOVERNMENT / HEALTH CANADA …………….
QUOTE “coronaviruses are common …..and are typically associated ….with mild illnesses,
similar to the common cold. (Unquote)
QUOTE >>> Those who are infected with COVID-19 may >>>>have little to >>> NO symptoms.
You may… NOT KNOW ……you have symptoms ….of COVID-19
because they are similar to …. a COLD or flu. (UNQUOTE)
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/symptoms.html
(& see Quotes At Bottom)
…………………………………….…………….
For the… very few …that do get infected noticeable symptoms, …. typical signs include
- A RUNNY NOSE
- A COUGH
- A SORE THROAT / Fever (high temperature).
The vast majority of patients – at least 97 per cent, ….. based on available data – will recover from these
>>>> without any issues ….. or medical help.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7987001/Death-toll-killer-coronavirus-10-TIMES-higher-average-Chinas-Hubei-province.html
………………………………………………….
Its such a happy clappy insignificant symptoms virus – its about as pleasant as you could make – thank you to God or Whoever
- A Good Job !
Lest We Forget ….. Ooooh 53 Suspected Cases Out Of 300 MILLION Americans – That’s ‘erm, well – nicely .… very significantly LESS than a PI$$ In The Ocean too really ….isn’t it
And Based On How Things Have Gone In CHINA So Far – It A case Of >>>> READ ON
…………………………………………………………………………………………….
MOVE ALONG FOLKS – NOTHING TO SEE HERE – ALL OVER – JUST MOVE ALONG – GET ON WITH YOUR LIVES
CHINA
Yes 2,400 Died Of Caronavirous in 2 months (60 Days) – An Average >>> Really VERY TINY >> 40 Deaths A Day
- Seasonal Flu Kills An Average 88,000 Per Year (Caronavirus Has Managed 2,400)
- 7 MILLION Chinese Die Per Year – Caronavirus Has Accounted For 2,400
And Studies/Reports State whilst there are only 80,000 Confirmed Infections – There Will be >>> 10X that number
- YES 3/4 MILLION + with Symptoms SO MILD – they Won’t EVEN NOTICE THEM
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
So Move Along Folks – Everywhere Is Opening Up Again – Just Move Along Folks – It Was Just The Usual Fear PORN – Move Along …CONTINUED
INTERNATIONAL NEWS CHANEL RT NEWS ….. Evidence …..
>>>> Propaganda Fatigue ….Setting In
Already Macau CHINA , the world’s biggest gambling hub, …..will allow casinos to…. resume operations from…. February 20,
…. after authorities imposed a two-week suspension to curb the coronavirus’ spread, authorities said on Monday,
Macau has not reported >>> any new cases of the virus>>> since February 4, … officials said (As At 20 Feb)
.
There have been >>>> ONLY 10 … confirmed cases of the virus >>> in total there.
Government services, which had mostly been suspended since the start of February, ….. have gradually resumed operations this week.
https://www.rt.com/newsline/481005-macau-casinos-virus-fear/
So Move Along Folks – Move Along – Nothing To see Here – Get On With Life – It’s All Over Folks 2,400 deaths and new cases plummeting -
DEATHS >> Predominantly Sick, Elderly, Immunocompromised, & usual already on their last legs ….. out of 1.3 BILLION CHINESE
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
NB 10 February 2020 BLOOMBERG
The new coronavirus might have infected….. at least 500,000 people in Wuhan, ….the Chinese city at the epicenter of the global outbreak, …..by the time it peaks in coming weeks.
But…… most of those people…..>>>> won’t even know it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/virus-outbreak-in-wuhan-may-soon-peak-with-more-than-5-infected
…………………………………………….
LOS ANGELES TIMES
Thousands of people in China and elsewhere ….have been infected ….. but have had…
>>>> such mild reactions that >>>> no one even noticed,
- said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-24/china-coronavirus-panic
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
The UK’s NATIONAL BBC News COMMENTS
– Re INFECTED – HAVING SUCH MILD REACTIONS >>> NO ONE NOTICED
>>> FROM THE LARGEST STUDY TO DATE (The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at more than 44,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in China as of 11 February
………………………………….
– So Known Infections Quoted In Study – 72,436 x 10 = 724,000 Who Will Have Had Symptoms – Too Mild – To Notice
– YES >> ¾ Million
…………………………………..
QUOTE >>> Re The Known 72,436 infections
- Scientists have estimated there could be …..10 times as many people infected ….. as are ending up in the official statistics.
That ALSO means the….. overall death rate IN THE REST OF CHINA (Outside Hubei) is likely to be
>>> lower than the 0.4% (rest of China) reported in this study (ie 10X LOWER – Making the death rate potentially ONLY 0.04)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981
……………………………………………………………………..
So Theres Proof Of Precedence – How This Caronavirus Runs
So Ignore the PROPAGANDA FEAR PORN – ENGAGE BRAIN PUT COMMON SENSE IN GEAR & JUST PARTY ON