Israel’s October Surprise

Modern wars are very rarely decided by arms alone. World War II was the last true war that was fought with a clarity of purpose, moral certitude, strategic planning, and political support. And that goes for both sides. Who won was a question of weaponry, manpower, and alliances.

The Wars in the Middle East, whether initiated by Israel, the United States, or regional actors, cannot be considered wars in any classical definition. They are intimidation operations, waged largely from the air and against civilians. 

On the day before Hamas attacked Israel its Turkish protector used the knowledge of the planned attack to wipe out the civilian infrastructure in the pockets of northern Syria it has coveted for over a century. 

There were no U.N, U.S., EU, Russian, Chinese or Islamic condemnations of Turkey’s illegal airstrikes. Their media didn’t cover it. It’s like they didn’t even happen.

But what Turkey did was significant because if the Ottoman Caliphate is allowed to reassert itself, first in Syria, then in Iraq, then what’s to stop it from expanding its ambitious reach to Palestine, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa?

The Israeli slaughter in Gaza is a sideshow. It’s the events, actors, and crises it will inevitably trigger that should demand our attention.

No one knows what that regional war will look like if Israel is not brought under control soon. An American-Iranian war might just be one of many wars in the region. And it will probably be the most contained one because there are still rational voices in both states.

But how long will those rational voices remain in charge? And what will China decide to do?

So far in this century China has been wisely building up and making strategic alliances around the world. China has already been the beneficiary of all the U.S.-Israel wars since 9/11. Will it be the beneficiary of yet more wars?

It’s difficult to see how the events ahead will unfold.

In Iraq the outcome of the war was a matter of politics. In Afghanistan the outcome of the war was a matter of time. In Ukraine it was a matter of simple arithmetic. And in Palestine it’s a matter of will.

Breaking the will of the Palestinians is the first, second, and third objective of the Israeli occupation and its periodic military campaigns. 

Actually, it’s an insult to the profession and institution of the military to even describe what Israel is doing in Gaza as “military” in nature. 

What kind of freaks plant their flag on a rooftop of a hospital? I mean, it’s fucking odd. I know in wartime men become beasts, but these aren’t mentally sound decisions even at the height of bloodlust. 

Israel’s military prowess has been highly hyped but it’s not based in reality. No self-respecting army attacks a hospital and calls it an act of conquest. 

In a sane world Israel would at least be sanctioned for its own good, to curb its suicidal behaviour. It really should be laughed out of the room if not for the fact that it would blow up the whole house with itself in it if done so.

But this isn’t a sane world because it’s been psychologically terrorized. 9/11 is a part of it. So is the JFK assassination. But it’s more than just the fear of death that’s guiding government policy worldwide. A more social and political fear is what’s dictating the policies of Europe and America. It is psychological terrorism.

One side of the world is afraid of being called anti-semitic and the other side is afraid of being blown up by nukes.

Until those fears are overcome, Israel’s leaders will stage many more October Surprises. After Hamas is gone it might create a new, even more extremist group to continue to carry out its long-planned genocide.