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Results: Why Romney Lost, How Obama Won!!!

Saturday, November 17, 2012 12:53

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Fred Cederholm

I’ve been thinking about results. Actually I’ve been thinking about the 2012 general election, David Axelrod, the Obama campaign, the Romney campaign, demographics, the census data, computer tracking, and election night. This was clearly the FIRST Presidential election of the 21st century, but only for the Democrats! The Republicans ran their campaign as they have done before (and lost in what appears to have been a complete surprise!) Both sides made errors, but the Republican focus and omissions clearly did them in in 2012. They were blindsided.

You see there is actually a science to running a campaign. You always need gobs of money (in 2012, EIGHT BILLION was spent on the campaigns for national office), a nationwide network of volunteers, and a growing amount of “intelligence” about numbers and the leanings of the electorate. What was different about 2012 was the value of the political consultants, what numbers they were tracking, and how the followed up on the results of their research and polls. You know I question the value of excessive polling since so much of the outcome can be skewed by the wording of the questions. Still, there is a most important roll that polls can play in a national election. The Democrats capitalized on this; the Republicans did not!

David Axelrod should be considered the “father” of modern politicking. I first met him in Chicago in the early/mid 1980s at a Jane Byrne campaign event. I learned plenty by observing the Jim Thompson gatherings and even more at the Jane Byrne events. I struck up a conversation with Axelrod whose comments intrigued me. He also was quietly standing at the sidelines and was watching the crowd. I have followed his career ever since — the Bill Clinton races and the first Obama campaign. Recently, I attended an event at North Central College where Axelrod spoke about managing a campaign. WHOA!

The Obama campaign heavily focused on voting behavior of various target segments of the population. They relied heavily on voting patterns from prior elections, and made very effective use of the census track data from the 2010 census. Demographics, breaking up the population into age, racial, and ethnic groups would play THE key role.

Of those who voted in 2012 (it would appear from the exit polling): 93% of African Americans voted democratic, 75% of Muslim Americans voted Democratic, 75% of gays voted Democratic, 60% of women voted Democratic (women are now 54% of the population), and 55% of the under-age 25 population voted Democratic. From the 2010 Census data, Axelrod and company knew which districts had a predominance of these groups. Their focus was on these districts nationwide, and they staged a major “get out the vote” campaign door by door. Just about every “contested” state fell to the Democrats, and Obama “won” the preponderance of the Electoral College votes. Right now, he also got a three million vote plurality of the popular vote.

The Romney campaign had a voter tracking computer system in place, but it had NOT been tested; and it “crashed” on Election Day. If you looked at the one category/ classification of voters where Romney had the preponderance of the voters support, it was in the white, over 65, married at least 25 years, gun owning, evangelical Christians demographic. If you looked at the crowd of invited “supporters” at the Romney “victory bash” in Boston drinking wine and eating canapés, it was noticeably different than the make-up of the ten thousand plus crowd which had gathered at McCormick Place in Chicago on election night to celebrate an Obama victory.

The demographics of America are changing before our eyes. They will continue to change. The census data/ information needs to be central to all future national campaigns. The “big tent” strategy will be essential for any political party’s strategy — that is… if they hope to survive.

Remember that Abe Lincoln once said: “with malice towards none, and charity towards all…”, and “all men are created equal under the eyes of God…” He was literally the first “big tent” Republican! I have been TH*NK*NG a lot about old Abe and what we could (and should) learn from him.

I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

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