Global Warming Has Increased Monthly Heat Records By A Factor Of Five
Graphic: PIK
“The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,” lead-author Dim Coumou says. “Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses – societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.” The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12.000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.
The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.
Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record events
If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. “Now this doesn’t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today – it actually is worse,“ Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today’s standards. “To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,” explains Coumou. “And this is just the global average – in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.”
“Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Earth System Analysis. “Today, this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.”
Contacts and sources:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Article: Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Rahmstorf, S. (2013): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures. Climatic Change (online) [doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1]
Weblink to the article: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
Rubbish! Records don’t go back far enough to be statistically significant. Hey, one thing I noticed: Earth’s warmth is caused by the SUN!!!
The whole global warming SCAM is run by corrupt governments after more tax money, and the corrupt and irrelevant UN, who will love to redistribute OUR hard earned cash to their corrupt and evil elites.
These unholy alliances are aided by possibly the most compromised and corrupt science on earth.
Just read ONE book: Red Hot Lies by C.C. Horner. I don’t believe for one minute yr government-funded pseudo-science!
Anthropogenic Global Warming is a Hoax and Fraud. Global Warming ended nearly twenty years ago. Further more these two conditions are NOT the same thing.
Fact: if we chart surface temperatures globally, via ice core and tree ring data, over our entire history of civilisation a clear declining trend is obseved.
Fact: if we follow the ice core information back, for the 6-700,000 years that we have data for, we find a cyclic trend that clearly shows that the coming ice maximum is actually well overdue.
Fact: The IPCC has been thoroughly out-ed as almost completely bogus.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, used for credence, in this article, relies on computer models and satellite data; by their own admission. Al Gore relies on ‘computer models’ too. Satellite data is nothing like observed data.
Anyone interested in this might simply type “Global Cooling” into their favourite search engine and be prepared to have the truth revealed. I am saying that there exists far more credible sources than the one touted for this article.
Anyone here who has seen me all over this blog with my little opinions should know that today is the first time that i have used the term “Fact” if people don’t like it they may bring it on. I am well prepared to defend everything that i have said here.
Heads up; if your name is, anonymous, you will be required to bring lots of information to any debate or else you will probably be ignored. You may bring it in little bites or big bites, makes no difference to me.