World temperature could rise rapidly by 2020 – ‘Our model shows we may have less time left than expected to prevent world temperature from rising above these thresholds’

Desdemona Despair

10 March 2016 (University of Queensland) – Global warming could occur more quickly than expected, according to a new model by University of Queensland and Griffith University researchers.

The model is the first to include ‘energy use per person’ as a predictive factor rather than focusing solely on economies or populations.

It forecasts that population and economic growth combined with rising energy use per person could significantly increase global energy demand and CO₂ emissions, causing world average temperature to rise by 1.5 degrees as early as 2020.

The model was developed by Professor Ben Hankamer from UQ’s Institute for Molecular Bioscience (IMB) and Dr Liam Wagner of Griffith University.

“Nations at the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change agreed to keep the rise in global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably limiting it to 1.5 degrees to protect island states,” Professor Hankamer said.

“Our model shows we may have less time left than expected to prevent world temperature from rising above these thresholds.

“World population is forecast to increase to over 9 billion people by 2050, which, together with international ‘pro-growth’ strategies, will lead to continually increasing energy demand.

Professor Hankamer said it was vital to move from CO₂-emitting fossil fuels and tap into renewable resources to accommodate these increases while controlling temperature.

“The sun is by far the largest renewable energy source,” he said.

“In just two hours it delivers enough solar energy to the Earth’s surface to power the entire global economy for a year –  and now is the time to make the switch.

“A cost-neutral strategy that governments should consider to fast track this transition is diverting the $500 billion used to subsidise the fossil fuel industry internationally to assist the global renewable sector.”

Dr Wagner said the model challenged the assumption that increases in energy efficiency and conversion would offset increases in demand.

“We have successfully applied our model to world energy demand from 1950-2010 and demonstrated that increases in energy efficiency alone don’t offset the surge in in energy use per person,” he said.

“Simply put, as we get more efficient at manufacturing, goods get cheaper and we buy more.

Dr Wagner said massive increases in energy consumption would be necessary to alleviate poverty for the nearly 50 per cent of the world’s population who live on less than $2.50 a day.

“We have a choice: leave people in poverty and speed towards dangerous global warming through the increased use of fossil fuels, or transition rapidly to renewables.

“As 80 per cent of world energy is used as fuels and only 20 per cent as electricity, renewable fuels in particular will be critical.”

Dr Ian Ross from IMB and Professor John Foster from UQ’s School of Economics were integral in developing the model. The work is published in the journal PLOS ONE.

The team received support from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Government and The University of Queensland.

Media contacts: IMB Communications, 07 33462134, 0418 575 247, [email protected]; Helen Wright, 07 3735 4288, 0478 406 565, [email protected]

World temperature could rise rapidly by 2020, modelling suggests

ABSTRACT: The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO₂ emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO₂ emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO₂ neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.

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