‘99 percent chance’ 2016 will be hottest year

Desdemona Despair

By Andrea Thompson
18 May 2016

(Climate Central) – Odds are increasing that 2016 will be the hottest year on the books, as April continued a remarkable streak of record-warm months.

Last month was rated as the warmest April on record by both NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which released their data this week. In the temperature annals kept by NOAA, it marked the 12th record warmest month in a row.

Global temperatures have been hovering around 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial averages — a threshold that’s being considered by international negotiators as a new goal for limiting warming. […]

Climate Central has reanalyzed the temperature data from recent months, averaging the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing it to the average from 1881-1910 to show how much temperatures have risen from a period closer to preindustrial times.

The analysis shows that the year-to-date temperature through April is 1.45°C above the average from that period. Governments have agreed to limit warming this century to less than 2°C from pre-industrial times and are exploring setting an even more ambitious goal of 1.5°C, which temperatures are currently close to.

“The fact that we are beginning to cross key thresholds at the monthly timescale is indeed an indication of how close we are getting to permanently exceeding those thresholds,” Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State, said in an email. [more]

‘99 Percent Chance’ 2016 Will Be Hottest Year