A great time to be Boris

As Mario wrote for this blog, Boris had a good day yesterday. Now the Mayor isn’t my favourite to be the next Conservative leader (though critics may note that he is with bookmakers). But I am surprised how many people still underestimate him.

Most denouncers point to his gaffes. They say nobody with this kind of error-strewn, reckless flamboyance could be taken seriously by the electorate. They dismiss the London Mayoralty as a cheap popularity contest, arguing that voters make their choices differently at the national polls, opting for more “serious” candidates.

I think this is very naïve. Popularity is popularity – it matters whatever the ballot and any Conservative with the appeal to win in (theoretically Labour) London clearly has plenty of it. Secondly, Brand Boris has undergone a transformation. In 2006, Boris was a charismatic out-rider, busily (in his words) adding “Papua New Guinea to my global itinerary of apology”. Looking at the credibility and appeal he has won in the six years since, it is hard to underestimate what progress he could make in the years ahead. Still only 48, 2020 Boris could have the credibility to match his ambition if this trend continues.

Others will say the key barrier is in fact his politics – that he’s too right wing for a progressive British electorate. I don’t doubt that the influence and scale of a conservative “middle-England” is often overstated in our political coverage. But I absolutely believe it is entirely possible for a talented politician to articulate a lower-tax, lower-spend model that gains popular appeal. Particularly if that politician also combines a placatory charm and social liberalism. If Boris can paint an appealing picture for Londoners, he can do it for the rest.

The other point to consider is the strength of the opposition. Football pundits too often evaluate the appointment of new managers or the sacking of old ones without any apparent consideration of the alternatives. Right now, there are few stand out successors, so to write off a man with this kind of talent and appeal seems hasty.

Anyway, enough of all that. Let’s enjoy the Olympics (and seeing a bit more of Boris in amongst it).