Kiev regime faces military defeat and economic collapse

Over a week ago the leaders of the break away republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, under pressure from Putin, agreed to a ceasefire with the Kiev regime. The official reason for the ceasefire was to allow humanitarian aid to the besieged people of Lugansk and Donetsk and prevent further suffering and bloodshed.

by Dylan and Jo Murphy

contributed by the authors

”In general, the first day of the “truce” was not much different from the typical day of the “war”. ” - Colonel Cassad

Over a week ago the leaders of the break away republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, under pressure from Putin, agreed to a ceasefire with the Kiev regime. The official reason for the ceasefire was to allow humanitarian aid to the besieged people of Lugansk and Donetsk and prevent further suffering and bloodshed.

All the talk of saving lives and humanitarian aid is so much hot air. Putin wants to come to an arrangement with American imperialism and its European puppet allies to help preserve the economic and political interests of the Russian billionaire oligarchs whom he represents. Putin has lost Ukraine as a buffer state between Russia and NATO. It appears he is willing to settle for Crimea and a sphere of influence in Eastern Ukraine that is pro-Russian in orientation.

Putin has come to the rescue of the Kiev regime and its American masters by forcing this ceasefire upon the leaders of Lugansk and Donetsk. The Kiev regime has suffered a series of major defeats in its attempt to take back the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army, whose soldiers have been poorly equipped and badly led, has suffered huge losses in tanks, heavy artillery and aircraft. Numerous military units have fallen apart and there are growing levels of desertion. Faced with the increasing unpopularity of conscription amongst the population, the Kiev regime decided to go for broke with its southern offensive in August. Poroshenko made repeated declarations that Lugansk and Donetsk would be captured and the self-defence forces destroyed by late August.

However, the self-defence forces have not just contained the Kiev regime’s summer offensive but have routed numerous units of the Ukrainian army and the neo-Nazi National Guard battalions. The attempt to cut Novorossia in two and separate Lugansk from Donetsk has failed miserably. In late August the self-defences forces of Novorossia enveloped sections of the Ukrainian army in a series of cauldrons while the bulk of the Ukrainian army retreated.

The ceasefire gives a precious lifeline to the battered and demoralised Ukrainian army. It now has the opportunity to regroup and re-equip its forces in anticipation of further military and economic aid. The defeats of the Ukrainian army have led to a corresponding rise in anti-Russian hysteria amongst the Western media and political elite, who show no appetite for any kind of negotiated settlement with Russia. Far from it.

Clear and blatant provocation of Russia by U.S. imperialism

American imperialism and its EU puppet allies have announced further sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile ”non-lethal” military aid is to be sent to the battered Ukrainian army. At the recent NATO warmongering summit in Wales it was announced by Poroshenko that US, France, Italy, Poland and Norway would supply modern weapons to Ukraine.

NATO forces have a permanent presence in the Black Sea through a rotation of their naval ships. The current naval drills between U.S. and Ukrainian ships have the objective of securing a maritime safety zone in a crisis area.” Further, NATO is developing a rapid response force to protect its client regimes in the Baltics and Poland. It will be holding military manoeuvres (Operation Trident) in Ukraine in mid September. This represents a clear and blatant provocation to Russia.

The American empire’s motives towards Ukraine reveal how it has no interest in any kind of negotiated settlement with Putin’s Russia. The U.S. ruling class sees Ukraine as a treasure trove to be exploited by American energy companies and biotech companies. Monsanto can’t wait to introduce GMO into the bread basket of Europe. In May this year Hunter Biden, (son of the US Vice President), joined the board of Ukraine’s largest gas producer. There are reports that Ukrainian troops are now being used to install fracking equipment in the Yzovka shale gas field just outside Slavyansk.

Does any of this sound like the Western imperialist states have any appetite for negotiation and compromise with Russia? Putin and his allies amongst the Russian oligarchs want to compromise with Western imperialism. They have no appetite for further confrontation and an escalation of the economic war. For them the over riding desire is to get back to business as usual and restore normal conditions for making money. They don’t want to be lumbered with the massive costs of supporting the populations of Lugansk and Donetsk. Crimea alone is going to be expensive, but as it gives the Russian navy access to its only warm water port, it is considered an expense worth paying.

Putin’s strategy seems to be playing the waiting game and hoping that Western businesses, particularly in Germany, will exert pressure on their governments to change course. However, the corrupt European political elite is totally beholden to their American masters. They show no sign of wanting to compromise with Russia, even though their economies are being hit by U.S. driven sanctions.

Approach of autumn Poroshenko regime faces series of crises

The Ukrainian economy has been in free-fall since the CIA inspired coup d’etat that overthrew Yanukovich in February. The billions in economic aid that Ukraine is receiving from the IMF and EU will not benefit the ordinary people of Ukraine. They face massive austerity, in the form of fuel subsidy cuts, wage and pensions cuts and huge increases in unemployment.

The full extent of the devastating economic crisis facing Ukraine has been analysed by Olga Shelkova, an independent economics journalist. In her recent article on the Ukrainian economy she predicts that the Ukrainian people will go cold and hungry this winter. The figures she presents are devastating and illustrate how capitalism in Ukraine only offers total immiserisation of the population.

In the first half of 2014 GDP fell by 4.5% and is predicted to fall by 7% by the end of the year. Declines in important industrial sectors, like coal, oil refining, car production and chemical manufacturing, are even higher. This has been brought about largely by the collapse of exports to Russia. Shelkova makes the rather chilling observation: “With the complete severance of economic ties with the Russian Federation by the Kiev junta, the pace of industrial collapse will only accelerate”.
The Kiev regime has placed its hopes on agriculture. However, the Ukrainian currency, the hrynvia, has been devalued by 62% since February. Inflation stands at 12% and there has been a 50% increase in government debt. Against this backdrop the cancellation of agricultural subsidies has hit farmers hard. Meanwhile foreign investment and public consumption are falling significantly away. Further inflationary pressures are coming with expected rises in the autumn – gas by 73%, electricity by 40%, and water by 84%. The long suffering population face a long cold winter, seeing as Kiev is unlikely to pay Gasprom the $5bn it owes.

The coming harvest season will be absolutely critical for the Kiev regime. It seems that about 80% of the fields in Western Ukraine have been successfully planted. However, due to the civil war there is a shortage of diesel, trucks, manpower and farm equipment. Taken together with the effects of wrecked bridges caused by recent flooding, bringing in the harvest is going to be a major challenge. Economics analyst Dr. Jim Willie is predicting that the Ukrainian harvest season will be disastrous. If this turns out to be the case then not only are the Ukrainian people going to be cold but they will also be going hungry.

Ceasefire is a complete and utter sham

Poroshenko’s immediate problem is to how to stave off military defeat. It is clear from developments in the last few days that the ceasefire is a complete and utter sham. The Ukrainian army has repeatedly shelled Donetsk and its artillery has been shelling self-defence forces in the outskirts of Mariupol. Settlements have been attacked by heavy weaponry, including Grad missiles, and there have been numerous attacks upon checkpoints held by the self-defence forces.

The blogger Colonel Cassad sums it up:

”The Nazis actively place their detachments into those settlements where their groups were weakened. The fascist detachments started to show up even in those places where they weren’t present before. Some detachments are provided with the weapons from NATO countries (weapons made in the USA). Enemy forces are rotated. Furthermore, the Nazis open fire on settlements too. For example, today [9/9/14] the Kiev fascists shelled the settlement of Spartak using artillery.”

It would appear that there are serious divisions within the leadership of the Republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. The leadership of the the break way republics, taking their cue from Putin, want to come to some kind of arrangement with the Kiev regime. There are elements within the leadership of the self-defence forces who oppose the ceasefire as a sham and regard it as a stab in the back for the militias and ordinary people of Lugansk and Donetsk.

Throughout the summer the Moscow oligarchs have tried to control the military situation in a manner that has strong parallels with Stalin’s military aid to republican Spain in the mid 1930s. Moscow has used its drip, drip supply of military/humanitarian supplies to control the political and military leadership of Lugansk and Donetsk. Indeed, in mid August several political and military leaders who were not seen as amenable to a negotiated settlement with the Kiev regime were replaced by pliant stooges of Moscow.

The brigade Prizrak (Ghost) commander Alexey Mozgovoy has recently commented that the leaders who signed the Minsk ceasefire are careerists: ”They have nothing but money, offices and briefcases in their heads!”. Ordinary people and those fighting in the militias have not been consulted about the ceasefire. Mozgovoy portrays the ceasefire as an attempt to prop up the billionaire oligarchs who now dominate the government of Ukraine.

The ceasefire agreement is much more than this. It is an agreement between the Russian and American ruling classes. Putin and the Russian oligarchs want to de-escalate the situation and want a return to normal relations with their capitalist counterparts in the West. However, the American imperialists have no intention of backing off. Quite the contrary. U.S. Imperialism has a clear agenda which includes capturing the natural resources of Ukraine for its corporations and the expansion of NATO right up to Russia’s borders. Ukraine is merely a stepping stone in the U.S. plans to dominate Eurasia. After Ukraine the next step is the destabilisation of Russia itself and its ultimate demise as an independent state.

The autumn may well see a collapse of the Kiev regime as the Ukrainian economy continues to implode. It appears very unlikely that the ceasefire will last as the Kiev regime is merely regrouping its armed forces before launching further attacks upon Lugansk and Donetsk.

It is still not too late for the ordinary people of Western and Eastern Ukraine to overthrow the rule of the billionaire oligarchs. Only a complete social and political revolution carried out by the ordinary people of Ukraine can save them from the evils of capitalism. Capitalism means war, poverty, hunger, mass unemployment and all the other attendant evils of an anachronistic system.

About the authors:
Dylan and Jo Murphy are activists in the british Anti-Fracking Movement and come from a socialist background. They can be contacted at [email protected]

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