The Battle of Brexit

Today we take to a helicopter over the Brexit battlefield. What do we see?

Over there are the Remainers. We can make out a large set of red tents, but those troops appear to be wandering about aimlessly in search of their leader, who rumour suggests is reluctant to take the field.

The main Remainer force looks organised, expensively equipped, and calm. Almost as if they had a strategy. From time to time Squire Korski rides off to summon reinforcements – some of them, it has to be said, mercenaries. These extra squads do appear, though not always in the numbers expected. Most effective so far has been the talismanic figure known as The Governor, even while he keeps insisting he is not in the Remainer camp at all.

Above all, the Remainers keep pounding the Leavers with the same steady fire, all asking How will you manage the economic transition? General Dave has announced that “the biggest issue on 23rd June is our economic future”.

This, by co-incidence, is the issue where he thinks the Remainers’ case is strongest.

By contrast, the Leave side of the battlefield looks disorganised. Instead of a dominant central encampment, we notice scattered clusters of separate tents. The Vote Leave tents look the most organised; on the opposite flank are the tents of Grassroots Out. There’s an excitable man there who seems to think he is in charge, jumping up and down and shouting loudly. But who is taking any notice?

A group of women have just arrived and are setting up their own camp. At some distance we can see a small set of tents with pennants fluttering in the breeze proclaiming “Leave HQ” – but there’s no sign of a stream of riders being sent to the other tents issuing orders. Their weaponry is sophisticated and advanced, small pieces firing regularly. But oh dear, for the moment at least their fire seems to be falling as much on their fellow Leavers as on the Remainers.

Of co-ordination among the Leave camps we see no sign at all.

The Remainers seem to have decided to put all their eggs in one basket. In line with their general’s order, they are concentrating their fire on the economic costs of Brexit.

Of course there will be transitional costs and uncertainties in leaving. The Remainers deliberately keep their timescale short.

Much of the Remainers’ ground is defended sketchily or not at all. Their immigration defences seem to have become trapped in a quagmire, but hardly any fire is being concentrated on this area.

The Sovereignty Point seems to be wide open to attack from several angles. There were some powerful sighting shots from the Leave EU camp, but they have not been followed up. If the Leavers do have a strategy, it’s not clear what it is.

Battles are notoriously unpredictable, but at this early stage only the Remainers seem to have any battle plan at all.

However. Rumour has it that behind the surrounding hills unpredictable forces are taking shape, variously known as the Migrants or the Turks.The Remainers are Trying Not To Look That Way, while some Leavers feel prevented by their chivalric code from mentioning them at all. Neither side can be sure what those massed forces might do. But if they appear on the field, their large numbers could overwhelm whatever plans the generals have.