ELECTION POLLS: when the denialism had to stop
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The company Electoral Calculus has just produced this prediction of the likely outcome on 12th December:
Health Warning: The brand name Calculus may have wonderful scientific overtones, but this is a poll of polls prediction. All pollsters use varying measures and weightings, and differ in the way they phrase questions…as well as the interview medium used: phone, online or face-to-face.
All that said, this is a mind-concentrating table for the enthusiastic denialists in the Labour and Brexit Parties.
There are three key points:
- Despite the Tories having lost 5 points of support since 2017, the Labour vote has collapsed by a third
- Despite a doubling of the LibDem popular vote, the Party would still have only 25 seats in the new Parliament
- On a rule-of-thumb basis, it looks like more than twice as many votes are being stolen off the Labour Party by the Faragists than are leaking from the Tories.
Personally, I do not buy into the 150 odd overall majority being projected for the Conservatives. I suspect Brexit Party support is understated, and the degree of organised ‘standing down’ between LibDem, Green & Labour will add more seats to the Remainer tally.
But as I have written consistently since the declaration, on December 13th there will be many tears and much wrenting of garments by TBP and Labour.
I will feel sorry for the Brexiteers. But I am going to have a ball taunting Owen Jones and the Momentum Trots.
Source: https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/11/07/election-polls-when-the-denialism-had-to-stop/
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