Covid-19: Keep Calm and Make a Plan
Saturday, February 29, 2020 10:44
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While some of the Press produce shouty headlines for fun and profit and others affect armchair insouciance, the truth lies somewhere in between: no, it’s not going to kill us all; no, it’s not just flu; no, it’s not going away.
This week’s Spectator adopts the postprandially relaxed position. Martin Vander Weyer reassures us https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/coronavirus-is-a-chance-to-buy-cheaper-but-it-comes-with-a-health-warning/that the recent stockmarket reverses (btw, in percentage terms nothing remotely like the Dow’s one-day drop in 1987 https://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/31/us/dow-jones-industrial-average-fast-facts/index.html ) may offer buying opportunities, particularly in pharma firms seeking a vaccine for Covid-19, though (chuckle) investors should ‘wash hands and don a face mask’ before placing their bets. Well yes, I think the frail, twisted state of the world’s financial system is currently much more of a real and present danger to shareholders and pensioners; but we’ll come back to vaccines in a moment.
The Speccie’s Ross Clark https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/also seeks to allay our ‘hysteria’ about coronavirus, but his downplaying doesn’t quite work for me. Like so many, he makes the comparison with influenza in the winter of 2017-18, quoting the Office for National Statistics’ figure of 50,000 fatalities, but must have missed the British Medical Journal’s comment (referencing Public Health England’s study): ‘the ONS seem to have exaggerated the risk to the public by in the region of 150 times.’ https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6. The fatality rate from seasonal flu is something like one in a thousand; The Guardian (28 February) says Covid-19 is ‘ten times more deadly.’
Clark tells us that SARS (9.6% fatalities https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wuhan-coronavirus-compared-to-sars-2020-1?r=US&IR=T) and H5N1 (60% death rate https://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/avian_influenza/h5n1_research/faqs/en/) ‘hardly justify’ being called epidemics, let alone pandemics; and ‘If China had not taken such dramatic steps to stop the [Covid-19] disease, we wouldn’t be half as worried.’ Au contraire, the Chinese should have acted earlier and faster and they are certainly not overreacting now; the dropped match that might have been doused quickly at the start has become a blaze requiring all available appliances.
Covid-19 is much less fatal than SARS, but has a similarly high level of transmission from person to person. The threshold contagion rate for an epidemic is R1, i.e. on average each person passes the disease on to one more; MERS https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-(mers-cov)and the highly deadly H5N1 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-people.htmwere below this rate, but SARS was in the region of R2-R3 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4558759/and Covid-19 is now thought to be similarly infective https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/, though earlier estimated at R4.
What makes the latest coronavirus more dangerous is that it seems to have a longer incubation period https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004#q2than SARS’ 2-7 days https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/faq.html, so there is a greater chance that it will slip through basic screening measures at airports etc. It also vastly expands the network of possible contacts before and after a case of infection, so containment becomes exponentially more difficult. The UK’s twentieth case, appearing in Surrey on Friday, is the first to have occurred here through secondary or tertiary transmission but given a prolonged pre-symptom period the trail can easily go cold.
Paradoxically, a quick and deadly disease is less of a threat, since it can be spotted early and eliminates its host fast before it can find many new ones; Covid-19 may go on to claim lots more victims overall because it kills a small percentage of a much larger number. Interviewed by The Atlantic magazine, Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch opines, ‘I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable,’ so rather than an epidemic or pandemic it will be endemic: a new regular seasonal illness like colds and flu, but one for which – as with other coronavirus – there may be no long-lasting immunity, and which is more fatal than flu.
In the same Atlantic article, the CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness points out that even though a vaccine may be developed by Spring or summer this year, testing for safety and effectiveness may mean it is not publicly available until 12 – 18 months from now.
Meanwhile, we can begin to analyse and quantify the risk factors of Covid-19, based on cases identified so far. Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/combines information from two authoritative sources to estimate the likelihood of dying if infected, according to age, sex and pre-existing medical conditions. The initial indications are:
1. Below age 50, the risk of death is 0.4% or less; after that, it goes from 1.3% to above 10% at age 80
2. Men are significantly more vulnerable than women, BUT most cases so far are Chinese and in China, men are much more likely to be smokers (as this study confirms https://jech.bmj.com/content/71/2/154)
3. In descending order, the following conditions significantly increase mortality risk: cardiovascular disease; diabetes; chronic respiratory disease; hypertension; cancer.
On the basis of the above, we can begin thinking about public and individual strategies to cope with the challenge of Covid-19.
First, timing: we need a plan to get through the next 18 months to two years, by which time a vaccine may become available. During this time, we all need to be extra-cautious, not only to evade the virus personally but to avoid spreading it to others. Perhaps all public places – e.g. schools, shops, offices, places of worship and mass entertainment – should have wall-mounted hand sanitisers as is standard in hospital wards. We need to wash hands frequently. Masks, says the government’s advice to transport workers https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-for-staff-in-the-transport-sector/covid-19-guidance-for-staff-in-the-transport-sector, ‘do not provide protection from respiratory viruses [but should] be worn by symptomatic passengers to reduce the risk of transmitting the infection to other people.’ One reader suggested shopping off-peak if possible; others may have more ideas to offer.
Then, focus: the elderly and infirm are clearly much more at risk. Maybe the NHS Secretary could authorise doctors and pharmacies to allow the old and weak to stockpile essential medicines so that if there is a local outbreak they can self-isolate in order to avoid contracting the disease; and their carers and visitors need to be much more scrupulous in hygiene precautions (think of sheltered accommodation and nursing homes.) There may need to be safer arrangements for them to access GP and hospital services. Those who still work may be permitted to do more at home. Health advice and initiatives may increase their stress on reducing smoking, excess body weight (dieting can beat diabetes in some cases), blood pressure etc. How about preparing varied food packs and menus to make it simpler for the vulnerable to have adequate and appropriate nutrition to endure a viral siege? (We need a new Lord Woolton and Marguerite Patten!)
Any more ideas?
Source: http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2020/02/covid-19-keep-calm-and-make-plan.html
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Best Plan – Stay Well Away From The Nutter & Crazy People – Who Are Suckered In – By The caronavirus – FEAR PORN
Propagands – BULLSH!T
…………………………….
Unless we learn from history – we are destined – to be conned by this crappito – over & over again
So Here’s The “OFFICIAL” Caronavirus Playbook – Start – Thro’ To… Finish
(It’s the one for H1N1 2009/2010 Swine Flu – But They All Run The same – SARS/MERS/BIRD FLU/EBOLA ETC)
……………………………………………………………………………………………
And So It Began >>>> H1N1 – CDC – A NEW Novel Virus – Sound Familiar
In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.html
…………………………………………………………………………………
The INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER JULY 2009 (INITIAL HYPE)
The NHS is planning for up to ….. 65,000 deaths …..from swine flu,
between three and 10 times ….. the normal winter flu death rate, the Chief Medical Officer says
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/nhs-prepares-for-65000-deaths-from-swine-flu-1750091.html
BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL (BMJ)
Chief medical officer for England, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, suggested that, as a‘worst case’scenario,
>>>> 30% of the UK population >>>> could be infected by the A/H1N1 virus,
(Population U.K 65 Million >>> X 30% = 19.5 Million)
https://jech.bmj.com/content/jech/early/2010/12/03/jech.2010.119875.full.pdf
…………………………….
JUNE 11 2009 >>> On June 11, 2009 — the World Health Organization declared that the swine flu virus we now simply call H1N1 had indeed triggered >>>> a pandemic
“Don’t you think there’s something noteworthy about the fact that the WHO has changed its definition of pandemic?
The old definition was a new virus, which went around quickly, for which you didn’t have immunity, and which created a high morbidity and mortality rate. Now the last two have been dropped, and >>> that’s how swine flu has been categorized …. as a pandemic.”
https://ahrp.org/flu-vaccine-fraud-who-mr-flu-under-investigation-for-gross-conflicts-of-interest/
………………..……………
DAILY MAIL SEPTEMBER 2009
HEADLINE >> So we’re not…. all going to die of swine flu … after all
England’s chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson was forced to admit yesterday that the worst case scenario…. had been slashed by two thirds…… from 65,000 deaths >>>> to 19,000.
The startling admission comes only weeks after Health Secretary Andy Burnham said there could be as many as
>>> 100,000 new swine flu cases…. a day.
In fact it emerged that last week there were now fewer than >>> 650 new cases a day.
Sir Liam is facing growing criticism that he caused panic as the virus turns out to be much milder than originally feared.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1211040/Swine-flu-death-risk-reduced-Government-maximum-19-000-Britons.html
……………………………………………………………………………………….
THE GUARDIAN JAN 2010 EARLY HYPE PROPAGANDA THEN >>> REALITY
The impact of the H1N1 virus has been….. less severe than anticipated. At the height of the pandemic scare,
>>>> around 65,000 deaths…. were expected in Britain;
the current, downgraded estimate is for>>>>> 1,000 fatalities.
The latest…. death toll for the whole of the UK >>>>> stands at 360.
The Council of Europe will debate a resolution that accuses drug companies of leaning on public health officials to alarm governments about the risks of H1N1 flu.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/11/swine-flu-h1n1-vaccine-europe
……………………………………
FINAL VERDICT UK – NHS
Friday 11 December 2009
Swine flu is less lethal than feared, according to reports on the BBC News.
- The website quotes research led by Sir Liam Donaldson, the chief medical officer,
- which found that only >>>> 0.026% of those infected ……with swine flu have died.
This was a well-conducted investigation …..into all deaths in England attributed to swine flu…. up to November 2009.
- It found that there were >>>> JUST 138 deaths
(from an … estimated 540,000 cases,)
https://www.nhs.uk/news/cancer/swine-flu-deaths-examined/
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
SO THERE YOU GO – A POTTED HISTORY – IN A NUT SHELL – HOW THESE PROPAGANDA _ VIRUS _ FEAR PORN – PLAYBOOKS RUN
UK – OUTSET
The NHS is planning for up to >>>> 65,000 deaths from swine flu, between three and 10 times ….. the normal winter flu death rate, the Chief Medical Officer says
………………….
At The End
This was a well-conducted investigation into all deaths in England attributed to swine flu up to November 2009. It found that there were >>> 138 deaths
…………………..
OUTSET
Health Secretary Andy Burnham said there could be as many as 100,000 new swine flu cases…. a day.
ACTUAL
In fact it emerged that last week there were …. fewer than …. 650 new cases a day.
………………….
OUTSET
30% of the UK population >>>> could be infected by the A/H1N1 virus,
Population U.K 65 Million >>> X 30% = >>>>> 19.5 Million could be INFECTED
ACTUAL
It found that there were JUST 138 deaths from an estimated >>> 540,000 cases,
……………………………………………………………………………………………….
BUT – BETWEEN THAT POTTED NUTSHELL SUMMARY ON H1N1 SWINE FLU
– AS THERE WILL BE…… WITH CARONAVIRUS
THERE WAS RELENTLESS 24/7 MAINSTREAM MEDIA FEAR PORN
AND AT THE END OF IT ALL
A VERY VERY MINISCULE >>> 138 SWINE FLU DEATHS