Deaths - all causes stats

The deaths – all causes stats are the ones to watch today. Looking at the shape of pandemic death curves, those that include all excess deaths at a time of pandemic, they seem to have a longer tail. Thus when the first 6k figure was released, I speculated a rough path would be a 6 – 15 – 8 – 4 shape, giving some 33k excess deaths for the first wave of the Wuhan virus. So far we’ve had 6 – 18. If my initial guess at the shape was right, we could be on a 6 – 18 – 10 – 5 trajectory.

The shape of the first wave is important as it can give us a clue as to the likely outcome of a second, enhanced wave. It seem we’re going to have to take the hit, whatever happens. Neither the economy nor public order will survive an indefinite total lockdown, and people are voting with their feet.

The first wave of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic caused a fatality peak in mid-July, the second a fatality peak in mid-November, some four months later. The second peak was much bigger in 1918 – if 18k is the Wuhan first peak, the second would be 90k in the highest week if un-modified. That, of course, is what the government is desperate to avoid. 

I think we’ll need to keep those empty Nightingale hospitals open for the foreseeable future, in any event.