1914: an alternative history

 What if Britain had not declared war on Germany in 1914? Think of the grief and destruction we might have avoided; the constant and worsening financial problems we have faced ever since. Maybe there would have been no humiliated and ruined Germany, no vengeful Hitler, no Holocaust, no mass migration of surviving Jewry to the Middle East; no collapse of the Ottoman Empire, no Russian revolution and its terrible daughter revolutions in the Far East.

What problems we face now, with our support for conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza/Israel… 

I asked ChatGPT to speculate and here is its answer:

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Give an alternative history of the British Empire and Western Europe if Britain had not declared war on Germany in 1914.

An alternative history of the British Empire and Western Europe if Britain had not declared war on Germany in 1914 would have had profound and far-reaching consequences. The outbreak of World War I was a pivotal moment in world history, and any deviation from the actual course of events would have led to a significantly different timeline. Here’s a speculative scenario of what might have happened:

1. Delayed or Avoided World War I: If Britain had chosen not to declare war on Germany in 1914, it’s possible that the conflict might not have escalated to a world war. The major powers, including Britain, might have sought diplomatic solutions to the tensions that had been building for years.
2. Altered Alliances: Without Britain’s entry into the war, the alliances between the major powers would have been significantly different. The Triple Entente (France, Russia, and Britain) would likely have remained intact, but it might not have directly opposed the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire). This could have resulted in a more multipolar world order.
3. Economic Prosperity: The avoidance of a world war would have allowed Western Europe to continue its economic growth and development. The devastation and financial burden of World War I were enormous, and without it, European economies might have experienced a more prolonged period of stability and growth.
4. Avoidance of the Russian Revolution: The Russian Revolution of 1917 was a direct result of the pressures and hardships of World War I. Without Britain’s entry into the conflict, the Russian Empire might have avoided the turmoil that led to the rise of the Bolsheviks and the collapse of the monarchy. This could have prevented the formation of the Soviet Union.
5. Decolonization: The post-war period saw the decline of European empires, with decolonization movements gaining momentum. In an alternate history without World War I, the process of decolonization might have been delayed or played out differently. The British Empire might have retained its colonies for a more extended period.
6. Changed Balance of Power: The absence of World War I would have prevented the weakening of major European powers, such as France and Germany. The balance of power in Europe might have been more stable, possibly leading to different outcomes in the interwar period and beyond.
7. Altered National Identities: The effects of World War I, including the redrawing of national borders and the collapse of empires, had a profound impact on national identities in Europe. In an alternative history, these identities might have evolved differently, leading to different political dynamics and alliances.
8. Different World War II: The absence of World War I would likely have had a cascading effect on the events leading up to World War II. The geopolitical landscape and alliances would have been different, potentially leading to a distinct Second World War or preventing it altogether.

It’s important to note that this alternative history is highly speculative, and numerous factors and contingencies would come into play. The decision-making of various world leaders, diplomatic efforts, and unforeseen events would have shaped the course of history in unpredictable ways. Nonetheless, it’s clear that the avoidance of World War I would have had a profound impact on the 20th century and beyond.