2013 Fantasy Outlook: Chris Johnson

Information is constantly changing in the NFL and fantasy player values can change at any moment. Having updated, informative news can help you not just at your fantasy football draft but during the regular season. Feel free to glance at our recent articles to make sound decisions throughout the year.

To help you get ready for draft day you will notice articles for ADP advice, cheat sheets, mock drafts and projected stats for Chris Johnson here. During the season, you can also find regular weekly ranking articles at this section as well.

Welcome to Chris Johnson fantasy football outlook archive. At this section of Johnson’s player page you will notice our past thoughts and advice for fantasy football.

August of 2012: Bounce Back, Or Continued Inconsistencies For CJ?

Still in the prime of his career, no one should be surprised if Chris Johnson bounces back for top five production at the running back position in fantasy leagues. Much like Randy Moss, Johnson has proven to not only play at an elite level, but he can also turn it off at any moment.

Not one has done a better job of breaking down Johnson’s deficiencies and his risk vs. reward than Evan Silva of Rotoworld, in his recent article titled, “A Leap OF Faith.”

Throughout the summer I’ve held Johnson back from being a top ten option on my board, but with a strong camp and a new found dedication to the game, it’s obvious, he’s an option to consider in the early going of your draft.

Especially when we consider quarterback, wide receiver and even the tight end position are relatively deep, while the running back position is weak. After what I saw on film from last year, I’m no longer a fan of Johnson but if I’m going to roll the dice on a running back in the later part of the first round or early second, it will probably the Titans star tailback.

Just remember selecting him is taking on a leap of faith and I encourage you to watch the videos at he links below as a remind of what this guy is capable of doing (or not doing) when he’s unmotivated.

Film Watch

Below are a couple links on the breakdown of Johnson’s game, mid-season.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/tennessee-titans/09000d5d823894d4/Playbook-Colts-vs-Titans

http://www.nfl.com/videos/tennessee-titans/09000d5d823c1be5/Playbook-Bengals-vs-Titans

	Rushing Stats			Receiving Stats
	Attempts	Yards	TD	Rec	Yards	TD
2012 Projected Stats	271	1,084	6	48	336	1

Summer of 2012: Fantasy Projections

As an owner of Chris Johnson in a few leagues last year, I can tell you without a doubt, he was the most frustrating player I’ve ever owned in over 20 years of playing fantasy football.

A great talent, Johnson was likely to start out slow after his long holdout, but as mid-season came around it was clear, his struggles were beyond conditioning.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m no Greg Cosell when it comes to watching film, but I do watch film on Game Rewind regularly, and the weaknesses Johnson showed as a runner, left me stretching my head, as I was flabbergasted at the lack of effort I saw.

Apparently I wasn’t alone, as in listening to old podcast (start time 31:22) from the Shutdown Corner (great show) Cosell himself had a few choice words to say about Johnson’s efforts as calling him an, “avoid contact player.”

Now, imagine if you were a pro-football player, your job is built around physical contact and I came up to you and told you those words. What would you do?

I’ll tell you what you would do; punch me in the face. And you should punch me in the face.

Film Watch

Below are a couple links on the breakdown of Johnson’s game, mid-season.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/tennessee-titans/09000d5d823894d4/Playbook-Colts-vs-Titans

http://www.nfl.com/videos/tennessee-titans/09000d5d823c1be5/Playbook-Bengals-vs-Titans

Looking Towards 2012

Yes, I understand the draw from the running back class this year isn’t strong and at some point Johnson deserves to be an option in the first three rounds of the draft, because he is in the prime of his career, has great talent and will likely maintain a feature role.

Still, when I see current ADP trends and this guy is going as the fifth running back on the board, it suggest to me that people are giving him a pass for last years efforts.

He did change his play after a mid-year rumor about how the Titans were going to release him in March, and that was nice to see. Perhaps all Johnson understands is money, and maybe he’s learned that if he doesn’t show effort, and production, he won’t hold onto the rest of the lucrative contract, furthermore finding himself in a prove it situation, on another team.

Maybe, Johnson will pull a Randy Moss like in his first year with the Patriots (after a horrible season in Oakland) and go off for a monster year.

It could happen, but in all likeness, Johnson will be the same player he’s been for a couple of years now without Vince Young around, and that is an inconsistent player.

Yes, Johnson should gain over 1,000 yards, but I’m not sure he will reach double digit touchdowns. While he may not play like a non-contact player this year, he’s likely to frustrate you with inconsistency, and I don’t believe he’s worth the fifth running back off the board.

Because of his efforts from a year ago, he will be ranked no higher than 12th on my board.

Summer of 2011: Fantasy Projections

While I still believe Chris Johnson is a top four running back at 2011 drafts, talks of a holdout have me bailing on him as a worthy option over Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. The Titans seem to think they can get away with another season but paying Johnson under a million dollars and his value as been clearly much higher than that for the past three seasons, since his breakout rookie year.

Don’t be surprised if you see Johnson’s ADP value still ranked ahead of Charles throughout most of the summer, but a hold out coupled with the Titans re-building project, are a concerns that are working against the great player. If it were on talent alone that I had to choose a running back on, I would take Johnson hands down but his situation is worth passing on if you can get one of the three running backs listed above. If Johnson should in fact, holdout, and it lasts deep into the preseason, I may drop him down further in our rankings because the risk for injury starts to climb.

9/2011 Update - Johnson is back as he agreed to terms on a new deal. Look to Johnson as a legit option to select with the first pick in the draft.

	Rushing Stats			Receiving Stats
	Attempts	Yards	TD	Rec	Yards	TD
2011 Projected Stats	303	1,277	11	53	418	1

May 2011: Early Fantasy Outook

The Titans struggled on offense in 2010, and it was clear that Offensive Coordinator Mike Heimerdinger wasn’t using Chris Johnson correctly, as he routinely run him up the middle against eight man fronts. While Johnson failed to live up to be the top producing running back for fantasy football, he was still solid as he posted 12 touchdowns, over 1,600 yards of total offense and 44 receptions.

The 44 receptions are a decent number but when you consider that the Titans were often playing from behind, his numbers should have been closer to 75 receptions, and that should change in 2011. New Head Coach Mike Munchak was a great offensive lineman (Hall Of Fame, Class of 2001) for the Houston Oilers and has been the teams offensive line coach since 1997.

In that time, we’ve seen the Titans put together solid offensive lines and running backs like Eddie George, Chris Brown (at times, when healthy) and Johnson had been stars in fantasy football. Coming into last season the Titans were in a small re-building mode for the offensive line, and if Munchak was gone this off-season, I would have ranked Johnson lower for fantasy drafts.

With Munchak, I feel confident that the offensive line will continue to mature and give Johnson more opportunities for big plays. Another positive in this situation is that ex-offensive line coaches tend to make it a priority to get the football into a special running backs hand anyway they can. This couldn’t be truer, as Munchak has already talked about using more screen plays (Thank God) to get Johnson the football. Where Fisher and Heimerdinger shied away from creativity, Munchak isn’t afraid to do so, because he has more confident in his lineman to execute those style of plays.

Running the football straight up the middle may be a safer play because you don’t have as many moving parts to execute the play, but against consistent eight man fronts, that predictability, is a big reason why the Titans were one of the worst teams (failing to move the football) in clock management.

For Standard and PPR leagues, I have Arian Foster as the top running back to select but if the Titans’ quarterback situation falls together the right way, I might move Johnson up to the top running back on our boards, before the season begins. Currently, Johnson’s ADP value on Mock Draft Central and Fantasy Football Calculator have him listed as the third best runner to select in standard and PPR redraft leagues.

Adrian Peterson is a great running back, but I have Johnson ahead of him because Johnson plays in a much easier division to run the football, and I’ve never seen Peterson put a full season of high rushing yards, top end receiving numbers and a 16 plus touchdown total together (not great in December as well) in one season. Johnson and Foster have put together those type of numbers, and with a more creative offense, Johnson should continue to defy the deficiencies (defense, quarterback) of his overall team to possibly be the top producing fantasy back once again.

2010 Preview

Chris Johnson is clearly the top pick in just about all fantasy formats this up coming season. Johnson provides everything a fantasy owner could ever want, and he is only in his third year as a pro.

2010 Fantasy Football Outlook

2009 Fantasy Year In Review: Many wondered if Chris Johnson could handle the full load as a feature back in the NFL coming into his second year. By mid season, it was clear that Johnson was not only capable of handling the job, but he was by far the best fantasy player in the NFL.

Johnson didn’t just rush for over 2,000 yards, he set the all time record for most total yards from scrimmage (was Marshall Faulk’s record) in a single season. This display makes Johnson the unquestioned No.1 pick in fantasy this up coming season and pending health, for years to come.

2010 NFL Fantasy Football Player Rankings: If you don’t have the top pick at your fantasy draft this season you had best hope you play Johnson on an off week. Even an off day is still a very good game for most NFL running backs so the odds of Johnson having little production against you is minimal.

It’s nice to have the 4.2 speed that Johnson possesses, but it is even more special when that speed compliments a runner that actually knows how to play his position. Johnson not only has moves and a good team around him, but he has the patients to wait for a hole to open and the burst of speed to blaze right through.

Unless Johnson is injured, he should have another great fantasy football season for fantasy owners.

Assets

- Speed

- Good All Around Team

- Good Hands

- Touchdown Maker

- Big Plays

Liabilities

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