Backdoor Cover: Week 4 NFL Picks

Welcome to the fourth week of the NFL season!

Last week: 5-3-1 ATS

Hey! Look who’s above .500 since suffering a pretty bad opening week. THIS GUY. I’m pretty happy with how last week went with the exception of losing both of my larger underdog spreads. Even though I count it as a loss, I know that people who backed Oakland on Monday covered the spread since it closed at either +16.5 or +17. Regardless, with two winning weeks we are (insert dated joke about grooves and Stella here) for the rest of the season.

I like lists. Whether it’s ranking fantasy players, projects to do each day or grocery shopping – there is something about writing out things and then crossing them out that makes a man feel like Jeremiah Johnson building his own house from mud/trees. Lately I’ve seen a lot of wrong answers to ranking something very important – Gatorade Flavors. There is a definite right and wrong way to drink America’s favorite sports drink.

Read and learn people: 1.) Citrus Cooler   2.) Glacier Freeze – Frost   3.)Lemon-Lime   4.)Fruit Punch + Berry X Factor   5.)Riptide Rush – Frost

Which begs the question…..why is it so hard to find Citrus Cooler? It was Michael Jordan’s favorite flavor for crying out loud. I like how going to gas stations/convenience stores charge like $2 for a 32 oz. Gatorade but then I go into a Wal-Mart and see them for a dollar. It feels like stealing at that point. Also, I’m not saying do it, but it’s super easy to steal from Wal-Mart. I imagine there are whole groups of people that get through life seeing how much they can shoplift from Wal-Mart.

After last week’s large favorite lines, this week has tightened up considerably. Tons of short lines and small road favorites. Last week it felt like there was an overall trend to my picks, this week’s capping was more all over the place. This season I’m currently 13-12-1 on the season. Continue to think positive thoughts.

On to the games!

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO/ST. LOUIS UNDER 42.5 – Sooner or later, I’m bound to get a Thursday night game right. I mean, it has to happen at some point. Thus far I’m 0-3 on the season. Well I’m back with an always fun to bet on UNDER between two teams that are struggling for an identity offensively. Think SF runs the ball mostly and that STL struggles to move the ball consistently. Do like me and bet on the under but really be watching the season premiere of PARKS AND RECREATION!!!

NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5 vs. Chiefs – Went against Eli & Co. last week but hoping he can capitalize on the momentum of The Book of Manning that came on ESPN this week to have a better showing. Really, there isn’t a reason to have faith in them other than they should improve at some point. Why not against the Chiefs?

CLEVELAND +4.5 vs. Bengals – The Browns came out of nowhere last week to stun the fantasy streaming defense community and throw up points. I’m not looking for lightning to strike twice, but I’m taking them to keep it close. There are numerous trends etc. going against CIN here which is the main reason for this play. I’m not going to list them, just take my word on it.

NEW ENGLAND +2 vs. Falcons – I’m a sucker for Tom Brady getting points. I don’t care how bad his options are or how Atlanta is supposed to exploit the Patriots secondary. Honestly, I don’t care. Anytime you can get free sushi – you do it. Anytime you can get New England as an underdog – you do it. Rules to live by.

WASHINGTON -3 vs. Raiders – I’m hoping this is an example of the Redskins playing good teams to start the year. They should be able to outclass a team that is hoping to hear Terrell Pryor will be able to make his start. I don’t think it makes a difference. Look for the Skins to get right before their bye week.

ARIZONA +2 vs. Buccaneers – The Bucs are a hot mess right now and despite their record, I think Arizona is better than they’ve shown. I like these odds on the game because you are making Tampa show they can beat an average team, something I really don’t think they are capable of in their current state. All I know is I’m glad my team isn’t relying on Mike Glennon to save us.

JACKSONVILLE +7.5 vs. Colts – Woof. Trying to be a punching bag again, I’ve decided to back the Jaguars on their home turf. Nobody comes into Duval County and pushes them around! The Colts just traveled to SF and now have to go to Jax. I’m guessing their focus will still be on their upset win against the Niners. Hold your nose and take the Jags.

DALLAS -2 vs. Chargers – At least I’m consistent. Dallas has a legit defense and enough offense to beat the Chargers by at least three points. Last week San Diego pushed against the spread despite giving up almost 200 yards rushing. They aren’t good and I’ll continue to go against them until the line adjusts.

MIAMI +7 vs. Saints – Break up the Fins! Almost as surprising as the Dolphins 3-0 start is the Saints defensive prowess. Honestly feel like these are too many points for a team that has an average offense with a few big play weapons. I also like cheering against Saints fans which include most of my friends and my spouse. Makes for a nice Monday night.