Fantasy Football Free Agent: Eric Decker

Behind Jimmy Graham, whom the New Orleans Saints franchised last week, Eric Decker may be the most sought-after skill position free agent this offseason.

Lucky for football fans, the stagnant offseason ends on March 11 when the NFL’s free agency period officially begins. Since the Super Bowl, we’ve had nothing but arrest news, front office shuffling, Jim Harbaugh rumors and Brett Favre’s beard/biceps combo to discuss.

(Can he still play?!?)

But once the free agent floodgates open, football is back. At least on paper.

And Decker will be one of the names on the move. A notable one at that.  Since joining the league in 2010, he’s put up some impressive numbers:

2011
44 receptions
612 yards
8 touchdowns

2012
85 receptions
1064 yards
13 touchdowns

2013
87 receptions
1288 yards
11 touchdowns

Decker did not do much in his rookie year of 2010, and in 2011 he was quarterbacked by the dynamic duo of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton.

As soon as Peyton Manning came to town in 2012? Explosive fantasy football numbers.

Decker finished as the 8th-best receiver in 0.5 PPR leagues in 2012 according to Fleaflicker’s end-of-season rankings. He followed that up with another top-10 finish in 2013 as the 9th best receiver, despite the addition of Wes Welker and emergence of Julius Thomas.

And now, Decker will cash in on those Peyton-inflated numbers. Fantasy owners, on the other hand, likely will not be seeing that kind of production from Decker again.

That doesn’t mean he won’t have fantasy football value going forward. But the allure of him potentially becoming a No. 1 wide receiver coupled with Peyton-inflated numbers will mean that most fantasy owners will over-value — and thus, over-pay for — Decker in drafts next summer.

What does that mean for you? Well, if you want him, you are going to have to pay a hefty price on draft day. Your return-on-investment, however, may not be as good as you might hope.

Potential landing spots: Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Colts, Raiders.