Doug Kass Is Worried About Q4.
Sam Ro|Sep. 4, 2012
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Doug Kass |
Legendary investor Doug Kass just cut his fair market value estimate on stocks.
“To summarize, in large measure, the worsening macroeconomic situation in Europe, China and the U.S. is leading me to modestly reduce my calculation of the S&P 500′s fair market value from 1,415 to 1,390, which is about 1% below the cash level at Friday’s close of trading (1407),” wrote Kass for Real Money Pro.
Among other things, he increased his odds of “sub-1.5% 2013 real growth from 40% to 55%,” which is his new baseline scenario.
In the more immediate term, Kass is worried that a number of things could mean trouble for that economy. Even worse, he thinks that any help from the Fed could do more bad than good. From TheStreet.com:
I am concerned that, come the fourth quarter of 2012, the emerging freeze in capital spending orders will reverberate through the production channel and become a freeze on job creation, creating a rippling and negative impact on domestic economic growth. And, while the Fed chairman “has our back,” I am less optimistic that most that the Fed’s actions will result in the intended benefits.
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