Complacency Strong As Stock Market Crashes; VIX and SPX Investors Not Afraid - Yet

New York, NY – There is such a thing on Wall Street as complacency.  Measurements of fear and complacency can give clues to where the stock market may head over the near term.  Even after the mini two week stock market crash measures of complacency – the LACK of deep fear of further stock price drops - runs high. 

The VIX is the often referred to as the fear index.  When the index rises it signals increased fear creeping into the market.  The index has risen of late, but off of absolutely low levels.  When comparing the VIX level of January 4th to the VIX level of November 1, 2009 you see the VIX was higher on November 1st signaling higher fear levels in the market at that time.

The S&P 500, SPX, has dropped 7% in two weeks yet it sits 3% above the levels of November 1, 2009.

This relatively low level of fear coupled with the recent sharp stock drop may not portend well for the market over the coming few weeks as traders and investors have been conditioned to buy the price dips since April 2009.  Investors may regret buying stocks on weakness in the near term as the fear gauge still shows inordinate amounts of complacency – which leads to probable further stock price drops.

SPX  stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p67628312554

VIX stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p67628312554