What the Charts Say You Should Do In the Oil Market Right Now
The global oil price got slaughtered this week, taking oil stocks down with it. Is this a buying opportunity?
Only history will tell us, but I would suggest now that the stock charts of many oil producers have pierced their long term, 200 day moving averages, they will take weeks or months to “recycle”, and base again for a move up later this year.
There will be a rally next week, but the likelihood of them bouncing back up THROUGH their short term moving averages and staying there are slim. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts for oil are all negative now. (Natural gas charts however are in much better shape.)
So I’m now compiling my list of favourite junior and intermediate oil stocks – both the ones I already own and some of the good growth stories I missed – and charting the buy points to look for over the coming weeks and months.
I’ll be telling subscribers exactly where I have my bids in, what prices I’ll be looking for through the spring and summer. I use several technical indicators – moving averages, and fibonaccis. (What’s a Fibonacci? http://tinyurl.com/23hr47c)
I’m not sure how much more downside these junior and intermediate oil stocks, but they may trend sideways for several weeks, allowing the long term moving averages to catch up (and I guess I’m lucky that many of the long term averages on the OGIB portfolio stocks have a long way to catch up).
So that’s why I’ll be preaching patience – until, of course, the facts change.
The fundamentals are still in place for a good oil market – global demand has not slackened. Truly, if the southern Mediterranean countries now in economic turmoil reduced oil consumption by 10%, how much does that affect the big picture? It’s a drop in the barrel.
Personally, I see very little downside on oil, but I have no ego in my opinion. I will let the charts – on oil and the individual stocks - tell me how to trade.
So I think this next few weeks will be a great time to be accumulating both oil stocks and the odd well situated natural gas stock.
Sow the seeds of profit over the summer, and prepare for the fall harvest.
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