Illiquid Stocks for Outsized Returns?
often very illiquid OTC can as a group produce outsized future gains. Some
investors (mostly academia) view it as getting paid a fee to wait and endure
the emotional turmoil of holding an illiquid, information scarce stock with a no
guarantee of above average capital return.
They believe the ultimate on average outsized market beating returns
with certain identifiable groups of stocks (illiquid, value, low p/b, and
others) as not market anomalies but instead a fair exchange. The seller must
sell the stock at a discount to compensate the buyer for risk, time and
uncertainty of holding these stocks. The seller receives immediate cash although
discounted from the long term expected value without bearing the risk of
uncertainty and liquidity concerns to the buyer with more flexibility, time and
possible understanding or risk tolerance. The level of market efficiency and the reason
for pockets of identifiable inefficiency has been debated for years by market
practitioners and academics. Efficiency will never be quantified as there are
too many variables.
investable possibly overlooked opportunities on the OTC. Each OTC venue was
superficially reviewed, OTCQB, OTCQX International, OTCQX International
Premier, OTCX U.S., OTCX U.S. Premier, OTC Pink current, OTC Pink Limited, OTC
Pink no information. There were over 18,000 stocks in total so I wanted to
narrow the list for this post. Some countries were excluded and my financial
criteria and started with YOY revenue growth, positive EBITDA for the TTM, enterprise
value to market capitalization less than 1.30 (margin of safety), and market
capitalization greater than 10 million. There may have been one exception to my
filter for this post. I also did some qualitative review before listing the
stocks. For example I made sure the financials were annually audited. My work
was somewhat superficial and needs more effort if you’re considering investing.
Not for this post but what is interesting as most of you already know you can
buy many premium foreign companies that will dual list on the pink sheets. So
purchasing these foreign stocks is now possible through online accounts like
Ameritrade using the OTC (pink sheet) symbol. You may want to take a closer
look at listed companies on these venues; not all are fraud, bankrupt or
garbage as in years past. The cost of compliance (i.e. Sarbanes–Oxley) to list
on the NASDAQ and the other large exchanges may be one motivating factor to
list on the OTC.
smaller subsets of the +18,000 by focusing on two venues, OTCQX and OTCQB.
“The OTCQX marketplace is the premier tier of the U.S.
Over-the-Counter (OTC) market, providing investors with an objective measure to
distinguish the best OTC-traded companies.”
(real estate, high earnings yield, near 52 week low)
Price = $6.69, This stock is off its 52 week high of 12.17 partially due to the
extra ordinary dividend at year end.
Market Cap = 44.15M, Enterprise Value = 44.30M, EV/EBITDA = 9.61
storage businesses in Rhode Island.
the books at costs significantly below market value.
in the Capital Center consisting of 11 individual parcels. As of December
31, 2011, it leased 6 developed parcels that consist of a 13-story office
building; an 8-story 225-unit residential building; a 4-story office building;
a 10-story office building; a 17-story and a 19-story residential building containing
193 units, and a 10-story office building; and 330-car public parking garage.
This segment also owns and leases an undeveloped parcel of land adjacent to
the Capital Center for public parking purposes on a short-term basis; and
leases certain outdoor advertising locations along interstate and primary
highways in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Its Petroleum Storage segment owns
leases a petroleum storage terminal with a capacity of approximately 1,000,000
barrels and the Wilkesbarre Pier located in East Providence, Rhode Island to
Global Companies, LLC for the storage and sale of petroleum distillates.”
moat, modest growth, statistically cheap)
Price = $7.71, Market Cap = 81.27M,Enterprise Value = 67.60M,EV/EBITDA = 6.95,
YOY revenue growth = 6.20%, ROA = 22.92%, Profit margin = 14.89%
marketplace for equity securities. direct interaction between broker-dealers
that provide liquidity and execution services. It offers OTC Dealer, a
software-as-a-service application,which enables broker-dealers.”
over 3,500 ideas that I filtered compared to the tiny group listed on OTCQX U.S. Premier venue. It’s
important to realize the importance of waiting for your price as most of the
OTCQB stocks although current in their filings are very illiquid. Many may be
current but the financial have not been audited. I only included companies with
current audited financial statements.
Not an easy task on the OTCQB venue.
companies that are current in their reporting with a U.S. regulator.
There are no financial or qualitative standards to be in this tier”.
Remember my list have audited financial statements but many of the stocks don’t
report audited statements.
significant cash, earnings, strong BS )
Solutions Inc. (NSSI): Price = $1.19, Cash
Per Share 0.88 , Current Ratio =36.41, Book Value Per Share =1.15, EBITDA (ttm)
= 5.23M,Total Cash =
22.76M, % held by insider = 54.34%, % held by institutions = 1.00%
Security Solutions, Inc. “engages in the acquisition, development, licensing,
and protection of intellectual property rights related to various
telecommunications and data networking technologies in the United States”. The
pejorative term for some of their work is patent troll.
book, close to negative EV), at 52 week low, reduced margins from Chinese
competition)
Technical Inc. (TNRK): Price = 9.00, Market Cap = 2.76M, Enterprise Value = 579K, Price/Book =
.31, EV /Sales = .07, EV/EBITDA = 1.13, 52 week return = -16.59%, Qtrly Revenue
Growth (yoy) – 7.90% (exception to my filter),
Technical, Inc. founded in 1979 designs, assembles, and markets batteries to
industrial, commercial, and retail markets in the United States. “Its batteries
are used in various applications, utilities, personal watercraft, photography,
power tools, watches, instrumentation, laptops, CNC, airsoft, surveying
equipment, radio control, mobile radios, alarms, U.P.S., door locks, and
emergency lighting, as well as various other consumer products. TNR Technical,
Inc. sells its batteries and/or battery packs to electrical distributors,
electronic wholesalers, battery assemblers, resorts, municipalities, police and
fire departments, hospitals, churches, hotels, surveying companies, contract
houses, and original equipment manufacturers.”
stock was below .50, real estate, exceptional recent growth from Mexico, when I
owned it went days with no trades
Baler Corporation IBAL: Price $1.95 Friday’s close, Market Cap:11.66M ,Enterprise Value: 7.35M, Enterprise
Value/Revenue:0.43, Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 64.00%
that has recently reported excellent profitable growth with a growing back
order. IBAL owns building and property
located in Jacksonville, Florida with 8 acres of land. The property has no
mortgage.
and designs, manufactures, and sells
baling equipment used to compress various materials into bales for handling,
shipping, disposal, storage, and recycling.
below net cash with growing revenues)
Price = .37, Market Cap:1.92M, Enterprise Value: -226.74K,Price/Sales
(ttm): 1.00,Price/Book : 0.67,
cash per share .41, Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 13.10%, Total Cash: 2.14M, Revenue
(ttm): 1.92M
below net cash with growing revenues.
in the research and development, manufacture, and marketing of wireless modem
products and accessories primarily in the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Peru,
and Canada. It also provides repair and upgrade, professional, site survey
testing, system start-up, and custom engineering services. Products are used in
various applications and industries comprising agriculture, airport lighting,
automotive, enterprise networking, entertainment, factory floor networking,
federal, marine, material handling, metals, power, public safety, oil/gas,
solar energy, water/wastewater, and wind power. “
closer look. So I thought it would be useful to list symbols that have a
reasonable capital structure, growing sales, financially sound balance sheet, and
recent audited financial statements and still listed on the illiquid wild west
of the OTCQB.
2013-02-16 08:10:16
Source: http://shadowstock.blogspot.com/2013/01/illiquid-stocks-for-outsized-returns.html
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