Alert: 900 Million Euro PUT, Betting That The Euro will crash within 2 weeks, Rocks the FX Market
A EUR900 million trade rocked the London options markets this morning.
The two- week put on the euro against the U.S. dollar stood out as options trading in EUR/USD has been quiet this year due to the range-bound nature of spot, according to traders in London.
The put was struck at USD1.2800 when volatility was at 9.8%. One senior trader in London noted that recent concerns over the stability of Cyprus have now fuelled activity.
*Term Structure*
*EUR/USD* *Fwd Rate* *Fwd Pips* *ATM Vol* *25d RR* *25d Bfly*
Spot: 1.2927/28
1W 1.29276/88 0.7/0.10 10.025 -0.95 0.15
1M 1.29298/311 3/3.2 8.975 -1.2 0.15
2M 1.29330/41 6.1/6.3 8.95 -1.35 0.2
3M 1.29359/70 9/9.2 8.95 -1.45 0.2
6M 1.29457/73 18.8/19.4 9.05 -1.6 0.25
9M 1.29570/88 30.1/30.9 9.239 -1.65 0.3
1Y 1.29679/724 41.1/44.6 9.35 -1.7 0.3
/Source: SuperDerivatives SGX/
Strategists at Credit Suisse noted that EUR/USD is likely to remain sensitive to Cyprus in the near-term. “We remain of the view that the likelihood of a systemic outcome is low, and as such maintain a medium-term bullish view on the euro.”
Martyn Harrison, fx options sales/trader at Marex Spectron in London told /DI/ EUR/USD one-year cross-currency basis swaps have rebounded from -28.9 basis points to -25 basis points following the large moves over the last couple of days.
“We see dips to 1.2806 technical support as a potential buying opportunity,” wrote fx strategists at BNP Paribas in a report. They noted that the currency pair still face significant headline risks, but
appear relatively cheap relative to the euro periphery-core bond yield spreads.
Two-week realized volatility on EUR/USD sat at 7.5% during London afternoon trading, while two-week implied was 9.3%. EUR/USD spot was USD1.2915 at press time.
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2013-03-22 21:19:29
Source: http://totalinvestor.blogspot.com/2013/03/alert-900-million-euro-put-betting-that.html
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That’s surefire proof we are almost through.
Check this one out…
ALL U.S. BANKS TO GO FULL BLOWN BIOMETRIC WITHIN 3 WEEKS???
/alternative/2013/03/americas-cyprus-crisis-all-u-s-banks-to-go-fullblown-biometric-within-3-weeks-2602080.html
So what do we really want to know about this? WHO THE HELL_O WAS IT that made the bet? That will tell us a lot more than simply the fact that the bet was made. That kind of money only comes from certain sources and has other purposes behind it than simply making money. Find out and tell us who made that bet!!
starting to look like a safe bet. If I had a couple of spare hundred million laying around I’d put a lazy fifty or so on it too.
pray for the people of Cyprus when the banks open tomorrow. it’s gonna be a zoo.