21 Stock Market Warning Signs Giving Global Investors Cold Sweats
Business Insider
Sam Ro | May 26, 2013
This past week saw the stock market sell-off a bit.
With markets near all-time highs, is it possible we’ve seen the top?
“They come and go,” said Jack Bogle, warning that the market is probably due for a 25-50% sell-off. “I went through one in 1973-1974, I went through one in 2001, 2002, 2003; I went through another one 2008-2009. They’re kind of scary — often terrifying — but it’s typical.”
Indeed, the bears seem to have an overwhelming number of reasons to be worried.
We’ve compiled 21 big warning signals that are keeping the stock market’s bulls on edge and its bears on the sidelines.
First, there are signs that the latest buyers are buying recklessly.
Also, there is a lot of proof that the outlook for demand is deteriorating, profits are falling, and profit margins are too optimistic.
And it’s not just a single company or industry sending warning signals. The breadth of warnings is both historic and startling.
If you’re an investor thinking about making a move in the stock market, then you should probably consider these warning signals.
Investors and traders are increasingly buying stocks with borrowed money.
Doug Short
Source: Doug Short
The markets are almost “euphoric,” which is the mother of all contrarian indicators.
SoberLook
Source: Credit Suisse via Sober Look
Stocks are now outpacing inflation expectations at a rate that preceded that last two crashes.
“Expectations of price increases (inflation) are a sign of potentially stronger demand growth and higher margins, which is a positive for stocks.”
Source: @ParagonCap
Meanwhile, corporate revenues have been disappointing.
US Equity Strategy, May 20, 2013
Morgan Stanley
“Revenue growth relative to expectations has been weak recently (Exhibit 27), despite companies cautiously managing expectations. Without reasonably strong revenue growth, there is increasing risk to the profit margin estimates embedded in consensus.”
Source: Morgan Stanley
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-warning-signs-2013-5?op=1#ixzz2UR7J6Ivr
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