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THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA: SHORTING $NFLX TO ITS 200 DMA AT $131

Wednesday, June 12, 2013 23:32

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LONG/SHORT EQUITY TRADING, WHERE TECHNICALS MEET FUNDAMENTALS.

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA

A JOHN CHALEKSON NEWSLETTER

$NFLX- $214.46 – STRONG SELL (SHORT SELL)
NFLX HAS FILLED ALL OF THE GAPS ON THE UPSIDE. IT IS STILL EXTREMELY OVERVALUED, FUNDAMENTALLY AND IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS TECHNICALLY. A BREAK DOWN OF ITS UPTREND COULD RESULT IN A TEST AT THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE AT AROUND $131. AFTER THAT THERE IS STILL UNFILLED GAP AT AROUND $100 PER SHARE.

Details

Index Membership:	Nasdaq 100 AMEX Internet
Sector:	Services
Industry:	Music & Video Stores
Full Time Employees:	2,045

Business Summary

Netflix, Inc. provides Internet television network service that enables subscribers to stream TV shows and movies directly on TVs, computers, and mobile devices in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Domestic Streaming, International Streaming, and Domestic DVD. The Domestic Streaming segment offers access to content delivered over the Internet to various connected devices, such as PCs, Macs, game consoles, smart TVs, Blu-ray players, hone theatre systems, Internet video players, digital video recorders, and mobile devices. The International Streaming segment engages in the streaming services primarily in Canada, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. The Domestic DVD segment provides DVDs-by-mail subscription services. The company also provides standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray discs to its subscribers in the United States. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Key Statistics

Get Key Statistics for:

Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)⁵:	12.04B
Enterprise Value (Jun 12, 2013)³:	12.04B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):	525.64
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)¹:	68.74
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹:	7.92
Price/Sales (ttm):	3.30
Price/Book (mrq):	15.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³:	3.20
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	92.64

Financial Highlights

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:	Dec 30
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):	Mar 31, 2013

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):	0.65%
Operating Margin (ttm):	2.23%

Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):	1.34%
Return on Equity (ttm):	3.31%

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):	3.76B
Revenue Per Share (ttm):	67.63
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):	17.70%
Gross Profit (ttm):	983.42M
EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	129.94M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):	24.42M
Diluted EPS (ttm):	0.41
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):	N/A

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):	1.03B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):	18.27
Total Debt (mrq):	700.00M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):	86.11
Current Ratio (mrq):	1.51
Book Value Per Share (mrq):	14.48

Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):	-8.51M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):	1.82B

View Financials
Income Statement - Balance Sheet - Cash Flow

Trading Information

Stock Price History
Beta:	1.44
52-Week Change³:	241.33%
S&P500 52-Week Change³:	23.67%
52-Week High (May 16, 2013)³:	248.85
52-Week Low (Aug 3, 2012)³:	52.81
50-Day Moving Average³:	221.72
200-Day Moving Average³:	164.00

Share Statistics

Avg Vol (3 month)³:

4,165,710

Avg Vol (10 day)³:

2,995,270

Shares Outstanding⁵:

56.14M

Float:

49.64M

% Held by Insiders¹:

2.37%

% Held by Institutions¹:

94.10%

Shares Short (as of May 15, 2013)³:

9.36M

Short Ratio (as of May 15, 2013)³:

1.90

Short % of Float (as of May 15, 2

013)³:

22.00%

Shares Short (prior month)³:

10.37M

Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate⁴:	N/A
Forward Annual Dividend Yield⁴:	N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield³:	N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield³:	N/A
5 Year Average Dividend Yield⁴:	N/A
Payout Ratio⁴:	N/A
Dividend Date³:	N/A
Ex-Dividend Date⁴:	N/A
Last Split Factor (new per old)²:	2:1
Last Split Date³:	Feb 12, 2004

See Key Statistics Help for definitions of terms used.

Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billions
mrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Mar 31, 2013)
ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Mar 31, 2013)
yoy = Year Over Year (as of Mar 31, 2013)
lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Dec 31, 2012)
fye = Fiscal Year Ending
¹ Data provided by Thomson Reuters
² Data provided by EDGAR Online
³ Data derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance
⁴ Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
⁵ Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.
⁶ EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its reporting

Currency in USD.

Balance Sheet

Get Balance Sheet for:

View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data

All numbers in thousands

Period Ending		Dec 30, 2012	Dec 30, 2011	Dec 30, 2010

Assets
Current Assets
	Cash And Cash Equivalents	290,291	508,053	194,499
	Short Term Investments	457,787	289,758	155,888
	Net Receivables	-	-	-
	Inventory	-	-	-
	Other Current Assets	1,492,713	1,033,046	286,844

Total Current Assets		2,240,791	1,830,857	637,231
Long Term Investments		-	-	-
Property Plant and Equipment		131,681	136,353	128,570
Goodwill		-	-	-
Intangible Assets		1,506,008	1,046,934	180,973
Accumulated Amortization		-	-	-
Other Assets		89,410	55,052	35,293
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges		-	-	-

Total Assets		3,967,890	3,069,196	982,067

Liabilities
Current Liabilities
	Accounts Payable	139,607	141,223	261,396
	Short/Current Long Term Debt	-	-	-
	Other Current Liabilities	1,536,319	1,083,832	127,183

Total Current Liabilities		1,675,926	1,225,055	388,579
Long Term Debt		400,000	400,000	200,000
Other Liabilities		1,147,291	801,331	103,324
Deferred Long Term Liability Charges		-	-	-
Minority Interest		-	-	-
Negative Goodwill		-	-	-

Total Liabilities		3,223,217	2,426,386	691,903

Stockholders’ Equity
Misc Stocks Options Warrants		-	-	-
Redeemable Preferred Stock		-	-	-
Preferred Stock		-	-	-
Common Stock		56	55	53
Retained Earnings		440,082	422,930	237,739
Treasury Stock		-	-	-
Capital Surplus		301,616	219,119	51,622
Other Stockholder Equity		2,919	706	750

Total Stockholder Equity		744,673	642,810	290,164

Net Tangible Assets		(761,335)	(404,124)	109,191

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Currency in USD.

YIKES, NET TANGIBLE ASSETS OF -761MM

NOV. 2012 – JUNE 2013

Account Balances

More Detail

Account Value	$126,119.31
Current Position Value	$69,933.36
Money Markets & Cash¹	$56,185.95
Stock Buying Power
Option Buying Power

Account Positions

More Detail

Symbol	Description	Qty	Price	Value	Action
AAPL	APPLE INC	-1	$432.19	($432.19)	Trade \| Chain
AMZN	AMAZON COM	-1	$271.67	($271.67)	Trade \| Chain
BBG	BILL BARRETT CORPORATION	1	$22.47	$22.47	Trade \| Chain
BBRY	RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD	1,300	$13.56	$17,628.00	Trade \| Chain
BLK	BLACKROCK INC	-1	$269.04	($269.04)	Trade \| Chain
CLVS	CLOVIS ONCOLOGY INC	-500	$72.10	($36,050.00)	Trade \| Chain
CRAY	CRAY INC	2,000	$18.65	$37,300.00	Trade \| Chain
CRAY Jul13 17.5 Call	Cray Inc	8	$1.55	$1,240.00	Trade \| Chain
CRM	SALESFORCE COM INC	-200	$37.58	($7,516.00)	Trade \| Chain
DELL	DELL INC	1	$13.36	$13.36	Trade \| Chain
DRYS	DRYSHIPS INC	200	$1.775	$355.00	Trade \| Chain
ESI	ITT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES INC	100	$27.66	$2,766.00	Trade \| Chain
ESRX	EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING COMPANY	-50	$61.89	($3,094.50)	Trade \| Chain
FB	FACEBOOK INC	-1	$23.77	($23.77)	Trade \| Chain
FSLR	FIRST SOLAR INC	300	$46.662	$13,998.60	Trade \| Chain
GES	GUESS INC	1	$30.40	$30.40	Trade \| Chain
HES	HESS CORPORATION	1	$66.82	$66.82	Trade \| Chain
HLF	HERBALIFE LTD	-1	$45.27	($45.27)	Trade \| Chain
KERX	KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS INC	-100	$6.98	($698.00)	Trade \| Chain
LULU	LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC	-100	$64.30	($6,430.00)	Trade \| Chain
NFLX	NETFLIX INC	-50	$207.64	($10,382.00)	Trade \| Chain
NOK	NOKIA CORP	100	$3.49	$349.00	Trade \| Chain
ODP	OFFICE DEPOT INC	100	$4.19	$419.00	Trade \| Chain
PAAS	PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP	300	$12.09	$3,627.00	Trade \| Chain
PNX	PHOENIX COMPANIES INC NEW	200	$43.87	$8,774.00	Trade \| Chain
REGN	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC	-50	$237.49	($11,874.50)	Trade \| Chain
RSH	RADIOSHACK CORP	2,000	$3.44	$6,880.00	Trade \| Chain
RSOL	REAL GOODS SOLAR INC	-100	$2.95	($295.00)	Trade \| Chain
SINA	SINA COM	1	$55.85	$55.85	Trade \| Chain
SSRI	SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC	5,800	$7.23	$41,934.00	Trade \| Chain
SSRI Jul13 8 Call	Silver Standard Resources Inc	60	$0.25	$1,500.00	Trade \| Chain
SWC	STILLWATER MINING	1,400	$12.06	$16,884.00	Trade \| Chain
TNP	TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD	1	$4.71	$4.71	Trade \| Chain
WTW	WEIGHT WATCHERS	-150	$43.84	($6,576.00)	Trade \| Chain
X	US STEEL CORP	1	$17.20	$17.20	Trade \| Chain
YHOO	YAHOO INC	1	$25.89	$25.89	Trade \| Chain

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JOHN CHALEKSON will not advise you prior to buying or selling the securities of the Profiled Companies does not and the Information should not be considered when making a decision to buy or sell securities of the Profiled Companies. The Information is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and does not provide reliable information or analysis of the financial position of the Profiled Companies. All statements in the Information are subject to change without notice and are not reliable. JOHN CHALEKSON is not liable for any investment decisions by its readers. Readers should independently investigate and fully understand all risks before investing in any Profiled Company.

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The Information is presented only as a brief “snapshot” of the Profiled Company and should only be used, at most, and if at all, as a method of obtaining the names of penny stocks and a starting point for you to conduct a thorough investigation of the Profiled Company and its securities and to consult your financial, legal or other advisor(s) and avail yourself to the filings and information that may be accessed at www.sec.gov . or other electronic medium, including: (a) reviewing SEC periodic reports (Forms 10-Q and 10-K), reports of material events (Form 8-K), insider reports (Forms 3, 4, 5 and Schedule 13D); (b) reviewing Information and Disclosure Statements and unaudited financial reports filed with the Pink Sheets; (c) obtaining and reviewing publicly available information contained in commonly known search engines such as Google; and (e) consulting investment guides at www.sec.gov and www.finra.com pertaining to the risks of investing in penny stocks. Readers must evaluate and bear all the risks associated with the Information, including reliance on its accuracy, completeness or usefulness. In all instances, you should conduct due diligence and its own review of the Profiled Companies and its securities.

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