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THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $CRAY VS. $AAPL - 7/6/13

Friday, July 5, 2013 19:58

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LONG/SHORT EQUITY TRADING:
WHERE TECHNICALS MEET FUNDAMENTALS

$10.00 Per Edition http://www.tinyurl.com/tnbti

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™

A JOHN CHALEKSON NEWSLETTER

$CRAY

TNBTI 7/8/13

CRAY, INC. $20.38

WOULD WARREN BUFFETT INVEST IN CRAY? PROBABLY NOT. BUT, CRAY IS PROBABLY WHERE APPLE WAS 13 YEARS AGO IN THE YEAR 2000. FROM THIS CHART YOU CAN SEE THAT THEY BOTH TRADED AT ABOUT THE SAME DURING THOSE YEARS, THEN APPLE WENT UP ABOUT 7,000%

I AM A SUPERCOMPUTING EVANGELIST. MY ONLY HOPE IS THAT CRAY’S MANAGEMENT WILL NOT ALLOW AN OUTSIDE BUYER TO BUYOUT THE COMPANY OR TAKE IT PRIVATE. WHAT IS PERPLEXING IS HOW LOW THE INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP IS. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW 10% HOLDERS, BUT THIS HAS INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST QUARTER.

Details

Index Membership:	N/A
Sector:	Technology
Industry:	Diversified Computer Systems
Full Time Employees:	929

Business Summary

Cray Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and services high-performance computing (HPC) systems. The company offers a range of supercomputer systems that comprise Cray XC30, Cray XK7/XK7m, and Cray XE6/XE6m systems; and Cray Xtreme-X and Cray Xtreme-Cool supercomputers. It also provides YarcData uRiKA graph appliance solution for massive unstructured and irregular data mining problems. In addition, the company offers storage and data management solutions, which include Cray Sonexion storage systems, such as Sonexion 1300 and Sonexion 1600; Cray esFS storage solutions for customers requiring configuration and storage array choice, as well as offers a suite of data management and storage connectivity products and services enabling data movement for and management of third-party storage platforms. Further, the company provides custom engineering solutions comprising specific components and integrated systems focusing on custom-designed hardware, software, packaging, power, and cooling solutions; and customer support services, including hardware and software maintenance, applications support, installation project management, system installation and de-installation, site preparation, and technical training for its HPC systems, as well as ancillary services in application consulting, site engineering, on-site analysts for defined projects, and specialized training. It serves government agencies, academic institutions, and commercial entities in the United States, Canada, Japan, the Asia-Pacific, South America, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Tera Computer Company and changed its name to Cray Inc. in 2000. Cray Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered Seattle, Washington.

Key Statistics

IN THE 5 YEAR CHART, CRAY IS ALREADY TAKING OVER AAPL

Major Holders

Get Major Holders for:

Breakdown

% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners:	5%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners:	79%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners:	84%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares:	134

Major Direct Holders (Forms 3 & 4)

Holder	Shares	Reported
UNGARO PETER J	660,059	Jun 30, 2013
HENRY BRIAN C	315,141	Jun 30, 2013
PARTHASARATHI ARVIND	298,617	Jun 30, 2013
WILLIAMS MARGARET ANN	160,997	Apr 28, 2013
MORREALE CHARLES A	141,526	Jun 30, 2013

Top Institutional Holders

Holder	Shares	% Out	Value*	Reported
Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co.	3,326,824	8.40	77,215,585	Mar 31, 2013
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc	2,316,077	5.84	53,756,147	Mar 31, 2013
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)	1,389,471	3.51	32,249,621	Mar 31, 2013
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	1,210,620	3.06	28,098,490	Mar 31, 2013
Mairs & Power Inc	1,162,480	2.93	26,981,160	Mar 31, 2013
Paradigm Capital Management	1,133,000	2.86	26,296,930	Mar 31, 2013
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.	1,057,648	2.67	24,548,010	Mar 31, 2013
BlackRock Fund Advisors	1,007,275	2.54	23,378,852	Mar 31, 2013
FMR, LLC	4,740,976	11.96	110,038,052	Mar 31, 2013
Wells Fargo & Company	4,332,823	10.93	100,564,821	Mar 31, 2013

Top Mutual Fund Holders

Holder	Shares	% Out	Value*	Reported
Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Value Fd	3,026,500	7.64	64,040,740	Apr 30, 2013
Price (T.Rowe) Small Cap Stock Fund	1,698,500	4.29	39,422,185	Mar 31, 2013
Fidelity OTC Portfolio	1,151,265	2.91	20,964,535	May 31, 2013
Mairs & Power Growth Fund Inc	1,012,500	2.56	18,437,625	May 31, 2013
Fidelity Small Cap Growth Fund	900,000	2.27	19,044,000	Apr 30, 2013
Variable Insurance Products Fund III-Mid-Cap Portfolio	698,935	1.76	12,727,606	May 31, 2013
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund	598,897	1.51	10,905,914	May 31, 2013
Fidelity Select Portfolios – Computers	557,700	1.41	10,155,717	May 31, 2013
Royce Opportunity Fund	480,159	1.21	11,144,490	Mar 31, 2013
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund	456,378	1.15	10,592,533	Mar 31, 2013

View Transactions for Insiders & Institutional Holders

Value shown is computed using the security’s price on the report date given.

Currency in USD.

Key Statistics

Get Key Statistics for:

Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)⁵:	763.39M
Enterprise Value (Jul 6, 2013)³:	497.59M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):	5.18
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)¹:	29.54
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹:	1.92
Price/Sales (ttm):	1.89
Price/Book (mrq):	2.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³:	1.28
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	26.64

Financial Highlights

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:	Dec 30
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):	Mar 31, 2013

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):	38.29%
Operating Margin (ttm):	2.26%

Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):	1.33%
Return on Equity (ttm):	58.22%

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):	388.30M
Revenue Per Share (ttm):	10.51
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):	-29.20%
Gross Profit (ttm):	151.18M
EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	18.68M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):	148.67M
Diluted EPS (ttm):	3.93
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):	N/A

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):	238.09M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):	6.36
Total Debt (mrq):	0.00
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):	N/A
Current Ratio (mrq):	3.70
Book Value Per Share (mrq):	9.02

Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):	27.24M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):	2.52M

View Financials
Income Statement - Balance Sheet - Cash Flow

Trading Information

Stock Price History
Beta:	1.38
52-Week Change³:	60.09%
S&P500 52-Week Change³:	20.66%
52-Week High (Apr 1, 2013)³:	23.59
52-Week Low (Aug 2, 2012)³:	10.80
50-Day Moving Average³:	18.87
200-Day Moving Average³:	18.96

Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month)³:	438,071
Avg Vol (10 day)³:	393,586
Shares Outstanding⁵:	37.46M
Float:	35.40M
% Held by Insiders¹:	5.35%
% Held by Institutions¹:	79.30%
Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)³:	1.87M
Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)³:	5.60
Short % of Float (as of Jun 14, 2013)³:	6.50%
Shares Short (prior month)³:	1.89M

Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate⁴:	N/A
Forward Annual Dividend Yield⁴:	N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield³:	N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield³:	N/A
5 Year Average Dividend Yield⁴:	N/A
Payout Ratio⁴:	N/A
Dividend Date³:	N/A
Ex-Dividend Date⁴:	N/A
Last Split Factor (new per old)²:	1:4
Last Split Date³:	Jun 8, 2006

See Key Statistics Help for definitions of terms used.

Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billions
mrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Mar 31, 2013)
ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Mar 31, 2013)
yoy = Year Over Year (as of Mar 31, 2013)
lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Dec 31, 2012)
fye = Fiscal Year Ending
¹ Data provided by Thomson Reuters
² Data provided by EDGAR Online
³ Data derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance
⁴ Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
⁵ Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.
⁶ EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its reporting

Currency in USD.

INSIDERS 7/3/13

SVP of Cray Inc just picked up 23,000 shares http://stks.co/qJ1l $CRAY

Cray Inc’s SVP and GM YarcData just picked up 79,000 shares http://stks.co/eaCF $CRAY

VP Admin of Cray Inc just picked up 23,000 shares http://stks.co/ca41 $CRAY

Cray Inc’s President & CEO just picked up 67,500 shares http://stks.co/tIvR $CRAY

VP of Cray Inc just picked up 11,000 shares http://stks.co/sIu0 $CRAY

Cray Inc’s Executive VP & CFO just picked up 36,000 shares http://stks.co/fbnD $CRAY

Cray Inc’s VP Field Operations just picked up 23,000 shares http://stks.co/jbgP $CRAY

Cray Inc’s SVP and CTO just picked up 23,000 shares http://stks.co/aaCv $CRAY

MANAGEMENT IS JUST STARTING TO REALIZE THEY HAVE A HUGE LONG TERM WINNER ON THEIR HANDS, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!

LINKEDIN.COM:
Peter J. Ungaro http://www.linkedin.com/pub/peter-ungaro/1/508/496

COMMENTARY & NOTES

“IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MARKET IS LIKE A VOTING MACHINE. IN THE LONG TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE.”

THANK YOU TO ALL OF THE NEW SUBSCRIBERS AND BE SURE TO FORWARD THIS TO A FRIEND. HTTP://WWW.TINYURL.COM/TNBTI

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: http://sTks.co/pIcs

THE 25K MODEL PORTFOLIO™
KEY POSITION ADDITIONS & CHANGES:

NTE ADDED

John Chalekson
E-mail: [email protected]

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™ http://www.tinyurl.com/tnbti

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LONG/SHORT EQUITY TRADING, WHERE TECHNICALS MEET FUNDAMENTALS.
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